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Klima
(2016)
Einer der ältesten Gegenstände der Zukunftsprognose ist das Wetter. Als "Bühne der Götter", von der aus sich gleichermaßen Strafgerichte, Prüfungen und Geschenke über die Menschen ergießen, ist Wetter das Paradigma einer ungewissen Zukunft, an die sich gerade darum bestimmte Wissensformen und Praktiken der Prädiktion knüpfen: Wetterorakel, Lostage, Almanache mit Wetter-Regeln oder auch Prophezeiungen wie die von den sieben fetten und sieben mageren Erntejahren, die Joseph dem Pharao weissagt (1. Mose 41). Während die Antike diesen Techniken mantischer Wettervorhersage eine große Zuverlässigkeit zuspricht, ist mit der Verwissenschaftlichung modernen meteorologischen Wissens die empirisch belastbare Vorhersage kurz- und mittelfristiger Wetterereignisse außerordentlich schwer geworden. Anders das Klima: "Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get". Klima ist Durchschnitt, Dauer und Regelmäßigkeit, Wahrscheinlichkeit und Wiederkehr: der Zyklus der Jahreszeiten, die Erwartbarkeit von Niederschlägen, Temperaturen und Winden, die Häufigkeit bestimmter Wetterverhältnisse in einer gegebenen Region. Es bewegt sich in einem Raum der Extrapolationen, Wahrscheinlichkeiten und Durchschnittsbildungen zwischen Einzelereignissen, deren kontingentes Auftreten in statistische Häufigkeit umgerechnet wird. So wird aus Regentagen eine bestimmte Niederschlagsmenge, aus Wärme- und Kälteperioden werden Temperaturkurven, aus desaströsen Stürmen jahreszeitlich wechselnde Windperioden.
Background: Microdeletions are known to confer risk to epilepsy, particularly at genomic rearrangement ‘hotspot’ loci. However, microdeletion burden not overlapping these regions or within different epilepsy subtypes has not been ascertained.
Objective: To decipher the role of microdeletions outside hotspots loci and risk assessment by epilepsy subtype.
Methods: We assessed the burden, frequency and genomic content of rare, large microdeletions found in a previously published cohort of 1366 patients with genetic generalised epilepsy (GGE) in addition to two sets of additional unpublished genome-wide microdeletions found in 281 patients with rolandic epilepsy (RE) and 807 patients with adult focal epilepsy (AFE), totalling 2454 cases. Microdeletions were assessed in a combined and subtype-specific approaches against 6746 controls.
Results: When hotspots are considered, we detected an enrichment of microdeletions in the combined epilepsy analysis (adjusted p=1.06×10−6,OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.51 to 2.35). Epilepsy subtype-specific analyses showed that hotspot microdeletions in the GGE subgroup contribute most of the overall signal (adjusted p=9.79×10−12, OR 7.45, 95% CI 4.20–13.5). Outside hotspots , microdeletions were enriched in the GGE cohort for neurodevelopmental genes (adjusted p=9.13×10−3,OR 2.85, 95% CI 1.62–4.94). No additional signal was observed for RE and AFE. Still, gene-content analysis identified known (NRXN1, RBFOX1 and PCDH7) and novel (LOC102723362) candidate genes across epilepsy subtypes that were not deleted in controls.
Conclusions: Our results show a heterogeneous effect of recurrent and non-recurrent microdeletions as part of the genetic architecture of GGE and a minor contribution in the aetiology of RE and AFE.
Background Microdeletions are known to confer risk to epilepsy, particularly at genomic rearrangement “hotspot” loci. However, deciphering their role outside hotspots and risk assessment by epilepsy sub-type has not been conducted.
Methods We assessed the burden, frequency and genomic content of rare, large microdeletions found in a previously published cohort of 1,366 patients with Genetic Generalized Epilepsy (GGE) plus two sets of additional unpublished genome-wide microdeletions found in 281 Rolandic Epilepsy (RE) and 807 Adult Focal Epilepsy (AFE) patients, totaling 2,454 cases. These microdeletion sets were assessed in a combined analysis and in sub-type specific approaches against 6,746 ethnically matched controls.
Results When hotspots are considered, we detected an enrichment of microdeletions in the combined epilepsy analysis (adjusted-P= 2.00×10-7; OR = 1.89; 95%-CI: 1.51-2.35), where the implicated microdeletions overlapped with rarely deleted genes and those involved in neurodevelopmental processes. Sub-type specific analyses showed that hotspot deletions in the GGE subgroup contribute most of the signal (adjusted-P = 1.22×10-12; OR = 7.45; 95%-CI = 4.20-11.97). Outside hotspot loci, microdeletions were enriched in the GGE cohort for neurodevelopmental genes (adjusted-P = 4.78×10-3; OR = 2.30; 95%-CI = 1.42-3.70), whereas no additional signal was observed for RE and AFE. Still, gene content analysis was able to identify known (NRXN1, RBFOX1 and PCDH7) and novel (LOC102723362) candidate genes affected in more than one epilepsy sub-type but not in controls.
Conclusions Our results show a heterogeneous effect of recurrent and non-recurrent microdeletions as part of the genetic architecture of GGE and a minor to negligible contribution in the etiology of RE and AFE.
Purpose: Discordance between pre-operative biopsy and final pathology for Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma (UTUC) is high and optimal management remains controversial. The aim of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of pre-operative biopsy, to identify prognostic factors and to evaluate the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy on survival and oncologic outcome in UTUC.
Methods: We analyzed records of patients receiving surgical treatment for UTUC. Pathology of pre-operative biopsy was compared to surgical specimen. We used Kaplan-Meier method to estimate survival probabilities and Cox's proportional hazards models to estimate the association between covariates and event times. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). A matched-pair analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy.
Results: 151 patients underwent surgical treatment (28% open, 36% laparoscopic, 17% robotic radical nephroureterectomy; 14% segmental ureteral resections and 5% palliative nephrectomy) for UTUC and were included in the analysis. Upstaging from <pT1 in endoscopic biopsy to ≥pT1 in final pathology occurred in 61% of patients and upgrading from low-grade to high-grade occurred in 30% of patients. Five-year OS was 59.5%. In the univariate Cox-regression model pathological stage, grade, lymphovascular invasion and positive surgical margins were associated with OS. Matched pair analysis for stage (<pT3; ≥pT3; pN+) and age revealed a significant survival benefit for adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 0.40, 0.14–0.77, p < 0.018) in this cohort.
Conclusion: UTUC is often underestimated in pre-operative biopsy, and it is associated with significant mortality. Pathological stage and grade, lymphovascular invasion and lymph node metastases are predictors of oncologic outcome and survival.