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The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe, with about 571,700 confirmed cases and about 26,500 deaths as of March 28th, 2020. We present here the preliminary results of a mathematical study directed at informing on the possible application or lifting of control measures in Germany. The developed mathematical models allow to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the number of scientific publications describing physiological and pathological functions of extracellular vesicles (EVs), a collective term covering various subtypes of cell-released, membranous structures, called exosomes, microvesicles, microparticles, ectosomes, oncosomes, apoptotic bodies, and many other names. However, specific issues arise when working with these entities, whose size and amount often make them difficult to obtain as relatively pure preparations, and to characterize properly. The International Society for Extracellular Vesicles (ISEV) proposed Minimal Information for Studies of Extracellular Vesicles (“MISEV”) guidelines for the field in 2014. We now update these “MISEV2014” guidelines based on evolution of the collective knowledge in the last four years. An important point to consider is that ascribing a specific function to EVs in general, or to subtypes of EVs, requires reporting of specific information beyond mere description of function in a crude, potentially contaminated, and heterogeneous preparation. For example, claims that exosomes are endowed with exquisite and specific activities remain difficult to support experimentally, given our still limited knowledge of their specific molecular machineries of biogenesis and release, as compared with other biophysically similar EVs. The MISEV2018 guidelines include tables and outlines of suggested protocols and steps to follow to document specific EV-associated functional activities. Finally, a checklist is provided with summaries of key points.
The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe with about 2.2 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths as of April 17, 2020 [37]. In view of most recent information on testing activity [32], we present here an update of our initial work [4]. In this work, mathematical models have been developed to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Systems of differential equations of SEIR type are extended here to account for undetected infections, as well as for stages of infections and age groups. The models are calibrated on data until April 5, data from April 6 to 14 are used for model validation. We simulate different possible strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually the number of fatalities. Our results suggest that a partial (and gradual) lifting of introduced control measures could soon be possible if accompanied by further increased testing activity, strict isolation of detected cases and reduced contact to risk groups.
Lenalidomide (LEN) maintenance (MT) post autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is standard of care in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) but has not been compared to other agents in clinical trials. We retrospectively compared bortezomib (BTZ; n = 138) or LEN (n = 183) MT from two subsequent GMMG phase III trials. All patients received three cycles of BTZ-based triplet induction and post-ASCT MT. BTZ MT (1.3 mg/m2 i.v.) was administered every 2 weeks for 2 years. LEN MT included two consolidation cycles (25 mg p.o., days 1–21 of 28 day cycles) followed by 10–15 mg/day for 2 years. The BTZ cohort more frequently received tandem ASCT (91% vs. 33%) due to different tandem ASCT strategies. In the LEN and BTZ cohort, 43% and 46% of patients completed 2 years of MT as intended (p = 0.57). Progression-free survival (PFS; HR = 0.83, p = 0.18) and overall survival (OS; HR = 0.70, p = 0.15) did not differ significantly with LEN vs. BTZ MT. Patients with <nCR after first ASCT were assigned tandem ASCT in both trials. In patients with <nCR and tandem ASCT (LEN: n = 54 vs. BTZ: n = 84), LEN MT significantly improved PFS (HR = 0.61, p = 0.04) but not OS (HR = 0.46, p = 0.09). In conclusion, the significant PFS benefit after eliminating the impact of different tandem ASCT rates supports the current standard of LEN MT after ASCT.
Derived from a biophysical model for the motion of a crawling cell, the evolution system(⋆){ut=Δu−∇⋅(u∇v),0=Δv−kv+u, is investigated in a finite domain Ω⊂Rn, n≥2, with k≥0. Whereas a comprehensive literature is available for cases in which (⋆) describes chemotaxis-driven population dynamics and hence is accompanied by homogeneous Neumann-type boundary conditions for both components, the presently considered modeling context, besides yet requiring the flux ∂νu−u∂νv to vanish on ∂Ω, inherently involves homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions for the attractant v, which in the current setting corresponds to the cell's cytoskeleton being free of pressure at the boundary. This modification in the boundary setting is shown to go along with a substantial change with respect to the potential to support the emergence of singular structures: It is, inter alia, revealed that in contexts of radial solutions in balls there exist two critical mass levels, distinct from each other whenever k>0 or n≥3, that separate ranges within which (i) all solutions are global in time and remain bounded, (ii) both global bounded and exploding solutions exist, or (iii) all nontrivial solutions blow up. While critical mass phenomena distinguishing between regimes of type (i) and (ii) belong to the well-understood characteristics of (⋆) when posed under classical no-flux boundary conditions in planar domains, the discovery of a distinct secondary critical mass level related to the occurrence of (iii) seems to have no nearby precedent. In the planar case with the domain being a disk, the analytical results are supplemented with some numerical illustrations, and it is discussed how the findings can be interpreted biophysically for the situation of a cell on a flat substrate.
The antibody-drug conjugate polatuzumab vedotin (pola) has recently been approved in combination with bendamustine and rituximab (pola-BR) for patients with refractory or relapsed (r/r) large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL). To investigate the efficacy of pola-BR in a real-world setting, we retrospectively analyzed 105 patients with LBCL who were treated in 26 German centers under the national compassionate use program. Fifty-four patients received pola as a salvage treatment and 51 patients were treated with pola with the intention to bridge to chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy (n = 41) or allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (n = 10). Notably, patients in the salvage and bridging cohort had received a median of 3 prior treatment lines. In the salvage cohort, the best overall response rate was 48.1%. The 6-month progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) was 27.7% and 49.6%, respectively. In the bridging cohort, 51.2% of patients could be successfully bridged with pola to the intended CAR T-cell therapy. The combination of pola bridging and successful CAR T-cell therapy resulted in a 6-month OS of 77.9% calculated from pola initiation. Pola vedotin-rituximab without a chemotherapy backbone demonstrated encouraging overall response rates up to 40%, highlighting both an appropriate alternative for patients unsuitable for chemotherapy and a new treatment option for bridging before leukapheresis in patients intended for CAR T-cell therapy. Furthermore, 7 of 12 patients with previous failure of CAR T-cell therapy responded to a pola-containing regimen. These findings suggest that pola may serve as effective salvage and bridging treatment of r/r LBCL patients.
Background & Aims: In ACLF patients, an adequate risk stratification is essential, especially for liver transplant allocation, since ACLF is associated with high short-term mortality. The CLIF-C ACLF score is the best prognostic model to predict outcome in ACLF patients. While lung failure is generally regarded as signum malum in ICU care, this study aims to evaluate and quantify the role of pulmonary impairment on outcome in ACLF patients.
Methods: In this retrospective study, 498 patients with liver cirrhosis and admission to IMC/ICU were included. ACLF was defined according to EASL-CLIF criteria. Pulmonary impairment was classified into three groups: unimpaired ventilation, need for mechanical ventilation and defined pulmonary failure. These factors were analysed in different cohorts, including a propensity score-matched ACLF cohort.
Results: Mechanical ventilation and pulmonary failure were identified as independent risk factors for increased short-term mortality. In matched ACLF patients, the presence of pulmonary failure showed the highest 28-day mortality (83.7%), whereas mortality rates in ACLF with mechanical ventilation (67.3%) and ACLF without pulmonary impairment (38.8%) were considerably lower (p < .001). Especially in patients with pulmonary impairment, the CLIF-C ACLF score showed poor predictive accuracy. Adjusting the CLIF-C ACLF score for the grade of pulmonary impairment improved the prediction significantly.
Conclusions: This study highlights that not only pulmonary failure but also mechanical ventilation is associated with worse prognosis in ACLF patients. The grade of pulmonary impairment should be considered in the risk assessment in ACLF patients. The new score may be useful in the selection of patients for liver transplantation.