Open Access

Emissions of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) are poorly constrained. However, their inclusion in global models is required to simulate a realistic inorganic bromine (Bry) loading in both the troposphere, where bromine chemistry perturbs global oxidizing capacity, and in the stratosphere, where it is a major sink for ozone (O3). We have performed simulations using a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) including three top-down and a single bottom-up derived emission inventory of the major brominated VSLS bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2). We perform the first concerted evaluation of these inventories, comparing both the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions. For a quantitative evaluation of each inventory, model output is compared with independent long-term observations at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ground-based stations and with aircraft observations made during the NSF HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) project. For CHBr3, the mean absolute deviation between model and surface observation ranges from 0.22 (38%) to 0.78 (115%) parts per trillion (ppt) in the tropics, depending on emission inventory. For CH2Br2, the range is 0.17 (24%) to 1.25 (167%) ppt. We also use aircraft observations made during the 2011 "Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere" (SHIVA) campaign, in the tropical West Pacific. Here, the performance of the various inventories also varies significantly, but overall the CTM is able to reproduce observed CHBr3 well in the free troposphere using an inventory based on observed sea-to-air fluxes. Finally, we identify the range of uncertainty associated with these VSLS emission inventories on stratospheric bromine loading due to VSLS (BryVSLS). Our simulations show BryVSLS ranges from ~ 4.0 to 8.0 ppt depending on the inventory. We report an optimised estimate at the lower end of this range (~ 4 ppt) based on combining the CHBr3 and CH2Br2 inventories which give best agreement with the compilation of observations in the tropics.

The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated (nine chemical transport models and two chemistry–climate models) by simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993–2012). Except for three model simulations, all others were driven offline by (or nudged to) reanalysed meteorology. The overarching goal of TransCom-VSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences due to emissions and transport processes. Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA's long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements – including high-altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform. The models generally capture the observed seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model–measurement correlation (r  ≥  0.7) at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model–measurement agreement at the surface is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions. Large inter-model differences are apparent when using the same emission inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11) achieve best agreement to surface CHBr3 observations using the lowest of the three CHBr3 emission inventories tested (similarly, 8 out of 11 models for CH2Br2). In general, the models reproduce observations of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 obtained in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) at various locations throughout the Pacific well. Zonal variability in VSLS loading in the TTL is generally consistent among models, with CHBr3 (and to a lesser extent CH2Br2) most elevated over the tropical western Pacific during boreal winter. The models also indicate the Asian monsoon during boreal summer to be an important pathway for VSLS reaching the stratosphere, though the strength of this signal varies considerably among models. We derive an ensemble climatological mean estimate of the stratospheric bromine SGI from CHBr3 and CH2Br2 of 2.0 (1.2–2.5) ppt,  ∼  57 % larger than the best estimate from the most recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment Report. We find no evidence for a long-term, transport-driven trend in the stratospheric SGI of bromine over the simulation period. The transport-driven interannual variability in the annual mean bromine SGI is of the order of ±5 %, with SGI exhibiting a strong positive correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific. Overall, our results do not show systematic differences between models specific to the choice of reanalysis meteorology, rather clear differences are seen related to differences in the implementation of transport processes in the models.

For the first time, results of all four existing stratospheric BrO profiling instruments, are presented and compared with reference to the SLIMCAT 3-dimensional chemical transport model (3-D CTM). Model calculations are used to infer a BrO profile validation set, measured by 3 different balloon sensors, for the new Envisat/SCIAMACHY (ENVIronment SATellite/SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY) satellite instrument. The balloon observations include (a) balloon-borne in situ resonance fluorescence detection of BrO, (b) balloon-borne solar occultation DOAS measurements (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) of BrO in the UV, and (c) BrO profiling from the solar occultation SAOZ (Systeme d'Analyse par Observation Zenithale) balloon instrument. Since stratospheric BrO is subject to considerable diurnal variation and none of the measurements are performed close enough in time and space for a direct comparison, all balloon observations are considered with reference to outputs from the 3-D CTM. The referencing is performed by forward and backward air mass trajectory calculations to match the balloon with the satellite observations. The diurnal variation of BrO is considered by 1-D photochemical model calculation along the trajectories. The 1-D photochemical model is initialised with output data of the 3-D model with additional constraints on the vertical transport, the total amount and photochemistry of stratospheric bromine as given by the various balloon observations. Total [Bry]=(20.1±2.8)pptv obtained from DOAS BrO observations at mid-latitudes in 2003, serves as an upper limit of the comparison. Most of the balloon observations agree with the photochemical model predictions within their given error estimates. First retrieval exercises of BrO limb profiling from the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument agree to <±50% with the photochemically-corrected balloon observations, and tend to show less agreement below 20 km.

Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice clouds have been observed, extending over >106km2 during more than 3 weeks. (2) Particle microphysics: heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles in the absence of ice has been unambiguously demonstrated; conversely, the synoptic scale ice clouds also appear to nucleate heterogeneously; a variety of possible heterogeneous nuclei has been characterised by chemical analysis of the non-volatile fraction of the background aerosol; substantial formation of solid particles and denitrification via their sedimentation has been observed and model parameterizations have been improved. (3) Chemistry: strong evidence has been found for significant chlorine activation not only on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) but also on cold binary aerosol; laboratory experiments and field data on the ClOOCl photolysis rate and other kinetic parameters have been shown to be consistent with an adequate degree of certainty; no evidence has been found that would support the existence of yet unknown chemical mechanisms making a significant contribution to polar ozone loss. (4) Global modelling: results from process studies have been implemented in a prognostic chemistry climate model (CCM); simulations with improved parameterisations of processes relevant for polar ozone depletion are evaluated against satellite data and other long term records using data assimilation and detrended fluctuation analysis. Finally, measurements and process studies within RECONCILE were also applied to the winter 2010/11, when special meteorological conditions led to the highest chemical ozone loss ever observed in the Arctic. In addition to quantifying the 2010/11 ozone loss and to understand its causes including possible connections to climate change, its impacts were addressed, such as changes in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes.