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Background: Intensive Care Resources are heavily utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, risk stratification and prediction of SARS-CoV-2 patient clinical outcomes upon ICU admission remain inadequate. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model, based on retrospective & prospective clinical data, to stratify patient risk and predict ICU survival and outcomes. Methods: A Germany-wide electronic registry was established to pseudonymously collect admission, therapeutic and discharge information of SARS-CoV-2 ICU patients retrospectively and prospectively. Machine learning approaches were evaluated for the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. The Explainable Boosting Machine approach was selected as the most suitable method. Individual, non-linear shape functions for predictive parameters and parameter interactions are reported. Results: 1039 patients were included in the Explainable Boosting Machine model, 596 patients retrospectively collected, and 443 patients prospectively collected. The model for prediction of general ICU outcome was shown to be more reliable to predict “survival”. Age, inflammatory and thrombotic activity, and severity of ARDS at ICU admission were shown to be predictive of ICU survival. Patients’ age, pulmonary dysfunction and transfer from an external institution were predictors for ECMO therapy. The interaction of patient age with D-dimer levels on admission and creatinine levels with SOFA score without GCS were predictors for renal replacement therapy. Conclusions: Using Explainable Boosting Machine analysis, we confirmed and weighed previously reported and identified novel predictors for outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Using this strategy, predictive modeling of COVID-19 ICU patient outcomes can be performed overcoming the limitations of linear regression models. Trial registration “ClinicalTrials” (clinicaltrials.gov) under NCT04455451.
The design and operation of innovative nuclear systems requires a better knowledge of the capture and fission cross sections of the Pu isotopes. For the case of capture on 242Pu, a reduction of the uncertainty in the fast region down to 8-12% is required. Moreover, aiming at improving the evaluation of the fast energy range in terms of average parameters, the OECD NEA High Priority Request List (HPRL) requests high-resolution capture measurements with improved accuracy below 2 keV. The current uncertainties also affect the thermal point, where previous experiments deviate from each other by 20%. A fruitful collaboration betwen JGU Mainz and HZ Dresden-Rossendorf within the EC CHANDA project resulted in a 242Pu sample consisting of a stack of seven fission-like targets making a total of 95(4) mg of 242Pu electrodeposited on thin (11.5 μm) aluminum backings. This contribution presents the results of a set of measurements of the 242Pu(n, γ) cross section from thermal to 500 keV combining different neutron beams and techniques. The thermal point was determined at the Budapest Research Reactor by means of Neutron Activation Analysis and Prompt Gamma Analysis, and the resolved (1 eV - 4 keV) and unresolved (1 - 500 keV) resonance regions were measured using a set of four Total Energy detectors at the CERN n_TOF-EAR1.
The electron-capture process was studied for Xe54+ colliding with H2 molecules at the internal gas target of the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR) at GSI, Darmstadt. Cross-section values for electron capture into excited projectile states were deduced from the observed emission cross section of Lyman radiation, being emitted by the hydrogenlike ions subsequent to the capture of a target electron. The ion beam energy range was varied between 5.5 and 30.9 MeV/u by applying the deceleration mode of the ESR. Thus, electron-capture data were recorded at the intermediate and, in particular, the low-collision-energy regime, well below the beam energy necessary to produce bare xenon ions. The obtained data are found to be in reasonable qualitative agreement with theoretical approaches, while a commonly applied empirical formula significantly overestimates the experimental findings.
73Ge(n, γ ) cross sections were measured at the neutron time-of-flight facility n_TOF at CERN up to neutron energies of 300 keV, providing for the first time experimental data above 8 keV. Results indicate that the stellar cross section at kT = 30 keV is 1.5 to 1.7 times higher than most theoretical predictions. The new cross sections result in a substantial decrease of 73Ge produced in stars, which would explain the low isotopic abundance of 73Ge in the solar system.
An experiment addressing electron capture (EC) decay of hydrogen-like 142Pm60+ions has been conducted at the experimental storage ring (ESR) at GSI. The decay appears to be purely exponential and no modulations were observed. Decay times for about 9000 individual EC decays have been measured by applying the single-ion decay spectroscopy method. Both visually and automatically analysed data can be described by a single exponential decay with decay constants of 0.0126(7)s−1 for automatic analysis and 0.0141(7)s−1 for manual analysis. If a modulation superimposed on the exponential decay curve is assumed, the best fit gives a modulation amplitude of merely 0.019(15), which is compatible with zero and by 4.9 standard deviations smaller than in the original observation which had an amplitude of 0.23(4).
We report the first measurement of low-energy proton-capture cross sections of 124Xe in a heavy-ion storage ring. 124Xe54+ ions of five different beam energies between 5.5 and 8 AMeV were stored to collide with a windowless hydrogen target. The 125Cs reaction products were directly detected. The interaction energies are located on the high energy tail of the Gamow window for hot, explosive scenarios such as supernovae and x-ray binaries. The results serve as an important test of predicted astrophysical reaction rates in this mass range. Good agreement in the prediction of the astrophysically important proton width at low energy is found, with only a 30% difference between measurement and theory. Larger deviations are found above the neutron emission threshold, where also neutron and γ widths significantly impact the cross sections. The newly established experimental method is a very powerful tool to investigate nuclear reactions on rare ion beams at low center-of-mass energies.
High precision measurement of the radiative capture cross section of 238U at the n_TOF CERN facility
(2017)
The importance of improving the accuracy on the capture cross-section of 238U has been addressed by the Nuclear Energy Agency, since its uncertainty significantly affects the uncertainties of key design parameters for both fast and thermal nuclear reactors. Within the 7th framework programme ANDES of the European Commission three different measurements have been carried out with the aim of providing the 238U(n,γ) cross-section with an accuracy which varies from 1 to 5%, depending on the energy range. Hereby the final results of the measurement performed at the n_TOF CERN facility in a wide energy range from 1 eV to 700 keV will be presented.
The aim of this work is to provide a precise and accurate measurement of the 238U(n,γ) reaction cross section in the energy region from 1 eV to 700 keV. This reaction is of fundamental importance for the design calculations of nuclear reactors, governing the behavior of the reactor core. In particular, fast reactors, which are experiencing a growing interest for their ability to burn radioactive waste, operate in the high energy region of the neutron spectrum. In this energy region most recent evaluations disagree due to inconsistencies in the existing measurements of up to 15%. In addition, the assessment of nuclear data uncertainty performed for innovative reactor systems shows that the uncertainty in the radiative capture cross section of 238U should be further reduced to 1–3% in the energy region from 20 eV to 25 keV. To this purpose, addressed by the Nuclear Energy Agency as a priority nuclear data need, complementary experiments, one at the GELINA and two at the n_TOF facility, were proposed and carried out within the 7th Framework Project ANDES of the European Commission. The results of one of these 238U(n,γ) measurements performed at the n_TOF CERN facility are presented in this work. The γ-ray cascade following the radiative neutron capture has been detected exploiting a setup of two C6D6 liquid scintillators. Resonance parameters obtained from this work are on average in excellent agreement with the ones reported in evaluated libraries. In the unresolved resonance region, this work yields a cross section in agreement with evaluated libraries up to 80 keV, while for higher energies our results are significantly higher.
New results are presented of the 234U neutron-induced fission cross section, obtained with high accuracy in the resonance region by means of two methods using the 235U(n,f) as reference. The recent evaluation of the 235U(n,f) obtained with SAMMY by L. C. Leal et al. (these Proceedings), based on previous n_TOF data [1], has been used to calculate the 234U(n,f) cross section through the 234U/235U ratio, being here compared with the results obtained by using the n_TOF neutron flux.
The 236U isotope plays an important role in nuclear systems, both for future and currently operating ones. The actual knowledge of the capture reaction of this isotope is satisfactory in the thermal region, but it is considered insufficient for Fast Reactor and ADS applications. For this reason the 236U(n, γ) reaction cross-section has been measured for the first time in the whole energy region from thermal energy up to 1 MeV at the n_TOF facility with two different detection systems: an array of C6D6 detectors, employing the total energy deposited method, and a FX1 total absorption calorimeter (TAC), made of 40 BaF2 crystals. The two n_TOF data sets agree with each other within the statistical uncertainty in the Resolved Resonance Region up to 800 eV, while sizable differences (up to ≃ 20%) are found relative to the current evaluated data libraries. Moreover two new resonances have been found in the n_TOF data. In the Unresolved Resonance Region up to 200 keV, the n_TOF results show a reasonable agreement with previous measurements and evaluated data.