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Institute
Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Background: Alzheimer's disease is a common debilitating dementia with known heritability, for which 20 late onset susceptibility loci have been identified, but more remain to be discovered. This study sought to identify new susceptibility genes, using an alternative gene-wide analytical approach which tests for patterns of association within genes, in the powerful genome-wide association dataset of the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project Consortium, comprising over 7 m genotypes from 25,580 Alzheimer's cases and 48,466 controls.
Principal findings: In addition to earlier reported genes, we detected genome-wide significant loci on chromosomes 8 (TP53INP1, p = 1.4×10−6) and 14 (IGHV1-67 p = 7.9×10−8) which indexed novel susceptibility loci.
Significance: The additional genes identified in this study, have an array of functions previously implicated in Alzheimer's disease, including aspects of energy metabolism, protein degradation and the immune system and add further weight to these pathways as potential therapeutic targets in Alzheimer's disease.
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder that is accompanied by neurodevelopmental differences in regional cortical volume (CV), and a potential layer‐specific pathology. Conventional measures of CV, however, do not indicate how volume is distributed across cortical layers. In a sample of 92 typically developing (TD) controls and 92 adult individuals with ASD (aged 18–52 years), we examined volumetric gradients by quantifying the degree to which CV is weighted from the pial to the white surface of the brain. Overall, the spatial distribution of Frustum Surface Ratio (FSR) followed the gyral and sulcal pattern of the cortex and approximated a bimodal Gaussian distribution caused by a linear mixture of vertices on gyri and sulci. Measures of FSR were highly correlated with vertex‐wise estimates of mean curvature, sulcal depth, and pial surface area, although none of these features explained more than 76% variability in FSR on their own. Moreover, in ASD, we observed a pattern of predominant increases in the degree of FSR relative to TD controls, with an atypical neurodevelopmental trajectory. Our findings suggest a more outward‐weighted gradient of CV in ASD, which may indicate a larger contribution of supragranular layers to regional differences in CV.
Bipolar disorder (BD) is a genetically complex mental illness characterized by severe oscillations of mood and behavior. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several risk loci that together account for a small portion of the heritability. To identify additional risk loci, we performed a two-stage meta-analysis of >9 million genetic variants in 9,784 bipolar disorder patients and 30,471 controls, the largest GWAS of BD to date. In this study, to increase power we used ~2,000 lithium-treated cases with a long-term diagnosis of BD from the Consortium on Lithium Genetics, excess controls, and analytic methods optimized for markers on the Xchromosome. In addition to four known loci, results revealed genome-wide significant associations at two novel loci: an intergenic region on 9p21.3 (rs12553324, p = 5.87×10-9; odds ratio = 1.12) and markers within ERBB2 (rs2517959, p = 4.53×10-9; odds ratio = 1.13). No significant X-chromosome associations were detected and X-linked markers explained very little BD heritability. The results add to a growing list of common autosomal variants involved in BD and illustrate the power of comparing well-characterized cases to an excess of controls in GWAS.
Background: Effective inhibition of plasma kallikrein may have significant benefits for patients with hereditary angioedema due to deficiency of C1 inhibitor (C1‐INH‐HAE) by reducing the frequency of angioedema attacks. Avoralstat is a small molecule inhibitor of plasma kallikrein. This study (OPuS‐2) evaluated the efficacy and safety of prophylactic avoralstat 300 or 500 mg compared with placebo.
Methods: OPuS‐2 was a Phase 3, multicenter, randomized, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled, parallel‐group study. Subjects were administered avoralstat 300 mg, avoralstat 500 mg, or placebo orally 3 times per day for 12 weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint was the angioedema attack rate based on adjudicator‐confirmed attacks.
Results: A total of 110 subjects were randomized and dosed. The least squares (LS) mean attack rates per week were 0.589, 0.675, and 0.593 for subjects receiving avoralstat 500 mg, avoralstat 300 mg, and placebo, respectively. Overall, 1 subject in each of the avoralstat groups and no subjects in the placebo group were attack‐free during the 84‐day treatment period. The LS mean duration of all confirmed attacks was 25.4, 29.4, and 31.4 hours for the avoralstat 500 mg, avoralstat 300 mg, and placebo groups, respectively. Using the Angioedema Quality of Life Questionnaire (AE‐QoL), improved QoL was observed for the avoralstat 500 mg group compared with placebo. Avoralstat was generally safe and well tolerated.
Conclusions: Although this study did not demonstrate efficacy of avoralstat in preventing angioedema attacks in C1‐INH‐HAE, it provided evidence of shortened angioedema episodes and improved QoL in the avoralstat 500 mg treatment group compared with placebo.
Background: For the prevention of attacks of hereditary angioedema (HAE), the efficacy and safety of subcutaneous human C1-esterase inhibitor (C1-INH[SC]; HAEGARDA®, CSL Behring) was established in the 16-week COMPACT trial.
Objective: To assess the long-term safety, occurrence of angioedema attacks, and use of rescue medication with C1-INH(SC).
Methods: Open-label, randomised, parallel-arm extension of COMPACT across 11 countries. Patients with frequent angioedema attacks, either study treatment-naïve or who had completed the COMPACT trial, were randomly assigned (1:1) to 40 IU/kg or 60 IU/kg C1-INH(SC) twice per week, with conditional up-titration to optimise prophylaxis. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT02316353.
Results: 126 patients with a monthly attack rate of 4.3 in 3 months prior to entry in the COMPACT program were enrolled and treated for a mean of 1·5 years; 44 patients (34·9%) had >2 years exposure. Median steady-state C1-INH functional activity increased to a maximum of 73.0% with 60 IU/kg. Incidence of adverse events was low and similar in both dose groups (11·3 and 8·5 events per patient-year for 40 IU/kg and 60 IU/kg, respectively). For 40 IU/kg and 60 IU/kg, median annualised attack rates were 1·3 and 1·0, respectively and median rescue medication use was 0.2 and 0.0 times per year, respectively. Of 23 patients receiving 60 IU/kg for >2 years, 19 (83%) were attack-free during months 25–30 of treatment.
Conclusion: In patients with frequent HAE attacks, long-term replacement therapy with C1-INH(SC) is safe and exhibits a substantial and sustained prophylactic effect, with the vast majority of patients becoming free from debilitating disease symptoms.
22q11.2 Deletion Syndrome (22q11.2DS) is the most common microdeletion in humans, with a heterogenous clinical presentation including medical, behavioural and psychiatric conditions. Previous neuroimaging studies examining the neuroanatomical underpinnings of 22q11.2DS show alterations in cortical volume (CV), cortical thickness (CT) and surface area (SA). The aim of this study was to identify (1) the spatially distributed networks of differences in CT and SA in 22q11.2DS compared to controls, (2) their unique and spatial overlap, as well as (3) their relative contribution to observed differences in CV. Structural MRI scans were obtained from 62 individuals with 22q11.2DS and 57 age-and-gender-matched controls (aged 6–31). Using FreeSurfer, we examined differences in vertex-wise estimates of CV, CT and SA at each vertex, and compared the frequencies of vertices with a unique or overlapping difference for each morphometric feature. Our findings indicate that CT and SA make both common and unique contributions to volumetric differences in 22q11.2DS, and in some areas, their strong opposite effects mask differences in CV. By identifying the neuroanatomic variability in 22q11.2DS, and the separate contributions of CT and SA, we can start exploring the shared and distinct mechanisms that mediate neuropsychiatric symptoms across disorders, e.g. 22q11.2DS-related ASD and/or psychosis/schizophrenia.
Background: Intracerebral haemorrhage growth is associated with poor clinical outcome and is a therapeutic target for improving outcome. We aimed to determine the absolute risk and predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth, develop and validate prediction models, and evaluate the added value of CT angiography.
Methods: In a systematic review of OVID MEDLINE—with additional hand-searching of relevant studies' bibliographies— from Jan 1, 1970, to Dec 31, 2015, we identified observational cohorts and randomised trials with repeat scanning protocols that included at least ten patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. We sought individual patient-level data from corresponding authors for patients aged 18 years or older with data available from brain imaging initially done 0·5–24 h and repeated fewer than 6 days after symptom onset, who had baseline intracerebral haemorrhage volume of less than 150 mL, and did not undergo acute treatment that might reduce intracerebral haemorrhage volume. We estimated the absolute risk and predictors of the primary outcome of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (defined as >6 mL increase in intracerebral haemorrhage volume on repeat imaging) using multivariable logistic regression models in development and validation cohorts in four subgroups of patients, using a hierarchical approach: patients not taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset (who constituted the largest subgroup), patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, patients from cohorts that included at least some patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, and patients for whom both information about anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset and spot sign on acute CT angiography were known.
Findings: Of 4191 studies identified, 77 were eligible for inclusion. Overall, 36 (47%) cohorts provided data on 5435 eligible patients. 5076 of these patients were not taking anticoagulant therapy at symptom onset (median age 67 years, IQR 56–76), of whom 1009 (20%) had intracerebral haemorrhage growth. Multivariable models of patients with data on antiplatelet therapy use, data on anticoagulant therapy use, and assessment of CT angiography spot sign at symptom onset showed that time from symptom onset to baseline imaging (odds ratio 0·50, 95% CI 0·36–0·70; p<0·0001), intracerebral haemorrhage volume on baseline imaging (7·18, 4·46–11·60; p<0·0001), antiplatelet use (1·68, 1·06–2·66; p=0·026), and anticoagulant use (3·48, 1·96–6·16; p<0·0001) were independent predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (C-index 0·78, 95% CI 0·75–0·82). Addition of CT angiography spot sign (odds ratio 4·46, 95% CI 2·95–6·75; p<0·0001) to the model increased the C-index by 0·05 (95% CI 0·03–0·07).
Interpretation: In this large patient-level meta-analysis, models using four or five predictors had acceptable to good discrimination. These models could inform the location and frequency of observations on patients in clinical practice, explain treatment effects in prior randomised trials, and guide the design of future trials.
Funding: UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation.
The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the number of scientific publications describing physiological and pathological functions of extracellular vesicles (EVs), a collective term covering various subtypes of cell-released, membranous structures, called exosomes, microvesicles, microparticles, ectosomes, oncosomes, apoptotic bodies, and many other names. However, specific issues arise when working with these entities, whose size and amount often make them difficult to obtain as relatively pure preparations, and to characterize properly. The International Society for Extracellular Vesicles (ISEV) proposed Minimal Information for Studies of Extracellular Vesicles (“MISEV”) guidelines for the field in 2014. We now update these “MISEV2014” guidelines based on evolution of the collective knowledge in the last four years. An important point to consider is that ascribing a specific function to EVs in general, or to subtypes of EVs, requires reporting of specific information beyond mere description of function in a crude, potentially contaminated, and heterogeneous preparation. For example, claims that exosomes are endowed with exquisite and specific activities remain difficult to support experimentally, given our still limited knowledge of their specific molecular machineries of biogenesis and release, as compared with other biophysically similar EVs. The MISEV2018 guidelines include tables and outlines of suggested protocols and steps to follow to document specific EV-associated functional activities. Finally, a checklist is provided with summaries of key points.
Investigators in the cognitive neurosciences have turned to Big Data to address persistent replication and reliability issues by increasing sample sizes, statistical power, and representativeness of data. While there is tremendous potential to advance science through open data sharing, these efforts unveil a host of new questions about how to integrate data arising from distinct sources and instruments. We focus on the most frequently assessed area of cognition - memory testing - and demonstrate a process for reliable data harmonization across three common measures. We aggregated raw data from 53 studies from around the world which measured at least one of three distinct verbal learning tasks, totaling N = 10,505 healthy and brain-injured individuals. A mega analysis was conducted using empirical bayes harmonization to isolate and remove site effects, followed by linear models which adjusted for common covariates. After corrections, a continuous item response theory (IRT) model estimated each individual subject’s latent verbal learning ability while accounting for item difficulties. Harmonization significantly reduced inter-site variance by 37% while preserving covariate effects. The effects of age, sex, and education on scores were found to be highly consistent across memory tests. IRT methods for equating scores across AVLTs agreed with held-out data of dually-administered tests, and these tools are made available for free online. This work demonstrates that large-scale data sharing and harmonization initiatives can offer opportunities to address reproducibility and integration challenges across the behavioral sciences.