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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Introduction: The German PID-NET registry was founded in 2009, serving as the first national registry of patients with primary immunodeficiencies (PID) in Germany. It is part of the European Society for Immunodeficiencies (ESID) registry. The primary purpose of the registry is to gather data on the epidemiology, diagnostic delay, diagnosis, and treatment of PIDs.
Methods: Clinical and laboratory data was collected from 2,453 patients from 36 German PID centres in an online registry. Data was analysed with the software Stata® and Excel.
Results: The minimum prevalence of PID in Germany is 2.72 per 100,000 inhabitants. Among patients aged 1–25, there was a clear predominance of males. The median age of living patients ranged between 7 and 40 years, depending on the respective PID. Predominantly antibody disorders were the most prevalent group with 57% of all 2,453 PID patients (including 728 CVID patients). A gene defect was identified in 36% of patients. Familial cases were observed in 21% of patients. The age of onset for presenting symptoms ranged from birth to late adulthood (range 0–88 years). Presenting symptoms comprised infections (74%) and immune dysregulation (22%). Ninety-three patients were diagnosed without prior clinical symptoms. Regarding the general and clinical diagnostic delay, no PID had undergone a slight decrease within the last decade. However, both, SCID and hyper IgE- syndrome showed a substantial improvement in shortening the time between onset of symptoms and genetic diagnosis. Regarding treatment, 49% of all patients received immunoglobulin G (IgG) substitution (70%—subcutaneous; 29%—intravenous; 1%—unknown). Three-hundred patients underwent at least one hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Five patients had gene therapy.
Conclusion: The German PID-NET registry is a precious tool for physicians, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry, politicians, and ultimately the patients, for whom the outcomes will eventually lead to a more timely diagnosis and better treatment.
The neutron capture cross section of several key unstable isotopes acting as branching points in the s-process are crucial for stellar nucleosynthesis studies, but they are very challenging to measure due to the difficult production of sufficient sample material, the high activity of the resulting samples, and the actual (n,γ) measurement, for which high neutron fluxes and effective background rejection capabilities are required. As part of a new program to measure some of these important branching points, radioactive targets of 147Pm and 171Tm have been produced by irradiation of stable isotopes at the ILL high flux reactor. Neutron capture on 146Nd and 170Er at the reactor was followed by beta decay and the resulting matrix was purified via radiochemical separation at PSI. The radioactive targets have been used for time-of-flight measurements at the CERN n_TOF facility using the 19 and 185 m beam lines during 2014 and 2015. The capture cascades were detected using a set of four C6D6 scintillators, allowing to observe the associated neutron capture resonances. The results presented in this work are the first ever determination of the resonance capture cross section of 147Pm and 171Tm. Activation experiments on the same 147Pm and 171Tm targets with a high-intensity 30 keV quasi-Maxwellian flux of neutrons will be performed using the SARAF accelerator and the Liquid-Lithium Target (LiLiT) in order to extract the corresponding Maxwellian Average Cross Section (MACS). The status of these experiments and preliminary results will be presented and discussed as well.
Background: Intensive Care Resources are heavily utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, risk stratification and prediction of SARS-CoV-2 patient clinical outcomes upon ICU admission remain inadequate. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model, based on retrospective & prospective clinical data, to stratify patient risk and predict ICU survival and outcomes. Methods: A Germany-wide electronic registry was established to pseudonymously collect admission, therapeutic and discharge information of SARS-CoV-2 ICU patients retrospectively and prospectively. Machine learning approaches were evaluated for the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. The Explainable Boosting Machine approach was selected as the most suitable method. Individual, non-linear shape functions for predictive parameters and parameter interactions are reported. Results: 1039 patients were included in the Explainable Boosting Machine model, 596 patients retrospectively collected, and 443 patients prospectively collected. The model for prediction of general ICU outcome was shown to be more reliable to predict “survival”. Age, inflammatory and thrombotic activity, and severity of ARDS at ICU admission were shown to be predictive of ICU survival. Patients’ age, pulmonary dysfunction and transfer from an external institution were predictors for ECMO therapy. The interaction of patient age with D-dimer levels on admission and creatinine levels with SOFA score without GCS were predictors for renal replacement therapy. Conclusions: Using Explainable Boosting Machine analysis, we confirmed and weighed previously reported and identified novel predictors for outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Using this strategy, predictive modeling of COVID-19 ICU patient outcomes can be performed overcoming the limitations of linear regression models. Trial registration “ClinicalTrials” (clinicaltrials.gov) under NCT04455451.
The neutron sensitivity of the C6D6 detector setup used at n_TOF facility for capture measurements has been studied by means of detailed GEANT4 simulations. A realistic software replica of the entire n_TOF experimental hall, including the neutron beam line, sample, detector supports and the walls of the experimental area has been implemented in the simulations. The simulations have been analyzed in the same manner as experimental data, in particular by applying the Pulse Height Weighting Technique. The simulations have been validated against a measurement of the neutron background performed with a natC sample, showing an excellent agreement above 1 keV. At lower energies, an additional component in the measured natC yield has been discovered, which prevents the use of natC data for neutron background estimates at neutron energies below a few hundred eV. The origin and time structure of the neutron background have been derived from the simulations. Examples of the neutron background for two different samples are demonstrating the important role of accurate simulations of the neutron background in capture cross-section measurements.
The neutron capture cross section of 58Ni was measured at the neutron time of flight facility n_TOF at CERN, from 27 meV to 400 keV neutron energy. Special care has been taken to identify all the possible sources of background, with the so-called neutron background obtained for the first time using high-precision GEANT4 simulations. The energy range up to 122 keV was treated as the resolved resonance region, where 51 resonances were identified and analyzed by a multilevel R-matrix code SAMMY. Above 122 keV the code SESH was used in analyzing the unresolved resonance region of the capture yield. Maxwellian averaged cross sections were calculated in the temperature range of kT = 5 – 100 keV, and their astrophysical implications were investigated.
Epigenetic neural glioblastoma enhances synaptic integration and predicts therapeutic vulnerability
(2023)
Neural-tumor interactions drive glioma growth as evidenced in preclinical models, but clinical validation is nascent. We present an epigenetically defined neural signature of glioblastoma that independently affects patients survival. We use reference signatures of neural cells to deconvolve tumor DNA and classify samples into low- or high-neural tumors. High-neural glioblastomas exhibit hypomethylated CpG sites and upregulation of genes associated with synaptic integration. Single-cell transcriptomic analysis reveals high abundance of stem cell-like malignant cells classified as oligodendrocyte precursor and neural precursor cell-like in high-neural glioblastoma. High-neural glioblastoma cells engender neuron-to-glioma synapse formation in vitro and in vivo and show an unfavorable survival after xenografting. In patients, a high-neural signature associates with decreased survival as well as increased functional connectivity and can be detected via DNA analytes and brain-derived neurotrophic factor in plasma. Our study presents an epigenetically defined malignant neural signature in high-grade gliomas that is prognostically relevant.
High precision measurement of the radiative capture cross section of 238U at the n_TOF CERN facility
(2017)
The importance of improving the accuracy on the capture cross-section of 238U has been addressed by the Nuclear Energy Agency, since its uncertainty significantly affects the uncertainties of key design parameters for both fast and thermal nuclear reactors. Within the 7th framework programme ANDES of the European Commission three different measurements have been carried out with the aim of providing the 238U(n,γ) cross-section with an accuracy which varies from 1 to 5%, depending on the energy range. Hereby the final results of the measurement performed at the n_TOF CERN facility in a wide energy range from 1 eV to 700 keV will be presented.
Neutron-induced fission cross sections of 238U and 235U are used as standards in the fast neutron region up to 200 MeV. A high accuracy of the standards is relevant to experimentally determine other neutron reaction cross sections. Therefore, the detection effciency should be corrected by using the angular distribution of the fission fragments (FFAD), which are barely known above 20 MeV. In addition, the angular distribution of the fragments produced in the fission of highly excited and deformed nuclei is an important observable to investigate the nuclear fission process.
In order to measure the FFAD of neutron-induced reactions, a fission detection setup based on parallel-plate avalanche counters (PPACs) has been developed and successfully used at the CERN-n_TOF facility. In this work, we present the preliminary results on the analysis of new 235U(n,f) and 238U(n,f) data in the extended energy range up to 200 MeV compared to the existing experimental data.
The aim of this work is to provide a precise and accurate measurement of the 238U(n,γ) reaction cross section in the energy region from 1 eV to 700 keV. This reaction is of fundamental importance for the design calculations of nuclear reactors, governing the behavior of the reactor core. In particular, fast reactors, which are experiencing a growing interest for their ability to burn radioactive waste, operate in the high energy region of the neutron spectrum. In this energy region most recent evaluations disagree due to inconsistencies in the existing measurements of up to 15%. In addition, the assessment of nuclear data uncertainty performed for innovative reactor systems shows that the uncertainty in the radiative capture cross section of 238U should be further reduced to 1–3% in the energy region from 20 eV to 25 keV. To this purpose, addressed by the Nuclear Energy Agency as a priority nuclear data need, complementary experiments, one at the GELINA and two at the n_TOF facility, were proposed and carried out within the 7th Framework Project ANDES of the European Commission. The results of one of these 238U(n,γ) measurements performed at the n_TOF CERN facility are presented in this work. The γ-ray cascade following the radiative neutron capture has been detected exploiting a setup of two C6D6 liquid scintillators. Resonance parameters obtained from this work are on average in excellent agreement with the ones reported in evaluated libraries. In the unresolved resonance region, this work yields a cross section in agreement with evaluated libraries up to 80 keV, while for higher energies our results are significantly higher.