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We develop a behavioral exchange rate model with chartists and fundamentalists to study cyclical behavior in foreign exchange markets. Within our model, the market impact of fundamentalists depends on the strength of their belief in fundamental analysis. Estimation of a STAR GARCH model shows that the more the exchange rate deviates from its fundamental value, the more fundamentalists leave the market. In contrast to previous findings, our paper indicates that due to the nonlinear presence of fundamentalists, market stability decreases with increasing misalignments. A stabilization policy such as central bank interventions may help to deflate bubbles.
In this study a regime switching approach is applied to estimate the chartist and fundamentalist (c&f) exchange rate model originally proposed by Frankel and Froot (1986). The c&f model is tested against alternative regime switching specifications applying likelihood ratio tests. Nested atheoretical models like the popular segmented trends model suggested by Engel and Hamilton (1990) are rejected in favour of the multi agent model. Moreover, the c&f regime switching model seems to describe the data much better than a competing regime switching GARCH(1,1) model. Finally, our findings turned out to be relatively robust when estimating the model in subsamples. The empirical results suggest that the model is able to explain daily DM/Dollar forward exchange rate dynamics from 1982 to 1998.
Background and aims: Patients with gastric cancer often show signs of malnutrition. We sought to evaluate the influence of sarcopenia in patients with locally advanced, not metastasized, gastric or gastro-esophageal junction (GEJ) cancer undergoing curative treatment (perioperative chemotherapy and surgery) on morbidity and mortality in order to identify patients in need for nutritional intervention.
Patients and methods: Two-centre study, conducted in the Frankfurt University Clinic and Krankenhaus Nordwest (Frankfurt) as part of the University Cancer Center Frankfurt (UCT). 47/83 patients were treated in the FLOT trial (NCT01216644). Patients´ charts were reviewed for clinical data. Two consecutive CT scans were retrospectively analyzed to determine the degree of sarcopenia. Survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox regression.
Results: 60 patients (72.3%) were male and 23 (27.7%) female. 45 patients (54.2%) had GEJ type 1–3 and 38 (45.8%) gastric tumors, respectively. Sarcopenic patients were significantly older than non-sarcopenic patients (mean age 65.1 years vs. 59.5 years, p = 0.042), terminated the chemotherapy significantly earlier (50% vs. 22.6%, p = 0.037) and showed higher Clavien-Dindo scores, indicating more severe perioperative complications (score ≥3 43.3 vs. 17.0%, p = 0.019). Sarcopenic patients had a significantly shorter survival than non-sarcopenic patients (139.6 ± 19.5 [95% CI, 101.3–177.9] vs. 206.7 ± 13.8 [95% CI, 179.5–233.8] weeks, p = 0.004). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that, besides UICC stage, sarcopenia significantly influenced survival.
Conclusion: Sarcopenia is present in a large proportion of patients with locally advanced gastric or GEJ cancer and significantly influences tolerability of chemotherapy, surgical complications and survival.
