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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Objective: In light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the associated hospitalization of an overwhelming number of ventilator-dependent patients, medical and/or ethical patient triage paradigms have become essential. While guidelines on the allocation of scarce resources do exist, such work within the subdisciplines of intensive care (e.g., neurocritical care) remains limited.
Methods: A 16-item questionnaire was developed that sought to explore/quantify the expert opinions of German neurointensivists with regard to triage decisions. The anonymous survey was conducted via a web-based platform and in total, 96 members of the Initiative of German Neurointensive Trial Engagement (IGNITE)-study group were contacted via e-mail. The IGNITE consortium consists of an interdisciplinary panel of specialists with expertise in neuro-critical care (i.e., anesthetists, neurologists and neurosurgeons).
Results: Fifty members of the IGNITE consortium responded to the questionnaire; in total the respondents were in charge of more than 500 Neuro ICU beds throughout Germany. Common determinants reported which affected triage decisions included known patient wishes (98%), the state of health before admission (96%), SOFA-score (85%) and patient age (69%). Interestingly, other principles of allocation, such as a treatment of “youngest first” (61%) and members of the healthcare sector (50%) were also noted. While these were the most accepted parameters affecting the triage of patients, a “first-come, first-served” principle appeared to be more accepted than a lottery for the allocation of ICU beds which contradicts much of what has been reported within the literature. The respondents also felt that at least one neurointensivist should serve on any interdisciplinary triage team.
Conclusions: The data gathered in the context of this survey reveal the estimation/perception of triage algorithms among neurointensive care specialists facing COVID-19. Further, it is apparent that German neurointensivists strongly feel that they should be involved in any triage decisions at an institutional level given the unique resources needed to treat patients within the Neuro ICU.
Einleitung: Am 16.12.06 wurde im Eurotransplant-Gebiet der MELD-Score (MELD) als Allokationsbasis zur Lebertransplantation (OLT) eingeführt. Ziel ist eine Reduktion der Sterblichkeit auf der Warteliste. Material und Methoden: 100 Patienten wurden in die prospektive Analyse der MELD-Allokation vom 16.12.06 bis 15.09.07 einbezogen. Ergebnisse: Aktuell warten 68 Pat., 28 Pat. wurden transplantiert, 4 Pat. sind auf der Warteliste (WL) verstorben (4%). Der mittlere MELD auf der WL beträgt 17,2 +/- 5,2 (7-28). Bei 12 Pat. liegt eine Standard-exception (SE) (n=10 HCC, n=2 metabolische Erkrankung) mit einem Match-MELD von 25,6 +/-2,06 vor (24-28). Die Todesursachen der vier auf der WL verstorbenen Pat. waren eine akute Varizenblutung (MELD 9), zwei kardiale Versagen (MELD 13, 18) und eine MRSA-Sepsis (MELD 29, NT-Status). Die 28 transplantierten Pat. hatte zum Zeitpunkt der Transplantation einen mittleren MELD von 27,66 +/- 5,1 Punkten (21 bis 40). 20 Pat. wurden aufgrund des Labor-MELD (28,4 +/- 5,3, 24-40) transplantiert, wobei 7 Pat. einen MELD über 30 aufwiesen. Die Wartezeit lag bei 11,55 +/- 5,3 Tagen. 8 Pat. erhielten bei SE bei HCC (MELD 24 +/- 0, 24) ein Organ nach einer Wartezeit von 320 +/- 9,7 Tagen. Aktuell leben 23 der 28 transplantierten Pat. Bei zwei verstorbenen Pat. war die Todesursache ein kardiales Versagen, bei zwei Patienten eine primäre Non-Funktion sowie ein septisches Multiorganversagen. Schlussfolgerung: Während der ersten Monate der MELD Allokation lag die Letalität auf der WL in unserem Zentrum bei 4%. Patienten mit einem mittleren MELD über 27 erhielten Organangebote und konnten nach kurzer Wartezeit transplantiert werden.
Background and Aims: In patients with Rat sarcoma proto-oncogene (RAS) wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies have been established in first- and further therapy lines. Due to limited treatment options upon disease progression, anti-EGFR re-exposure is increasingly employed in real-world oncology. The aim of this study was to assess clinical implementation and utility of anti-EGFR retreatment strategies in real-world mCRC patients. Methods: In this monocentric retrospective study, we included 524 patients with CRC and identified patients who received an anti-EGFR-based treatment as well as anti-EGFR rechallenge (progression on first-line anti-EGFR therapy) or reintroduction (discontinuation due to intolerance/toxicity/other). Results: In total, 143 patients received an anti-EGFR-based first- or second-line treatment, showing a similar overall survival (OS) compared to the non-anti-EGFR treatment group (38.3 vs. 39.6 months, p = 0.88). Thirty-three patients met the inclusion criteria for anti-EGFR re-exposure and were either assigned to rechallenge (n = 21) or reintroduction (n = 12) subgroups. The median FU after re-exposure was 45.8 months. Cetuximab and Panitumumab were used in 21 and 12 patients, respectively, and the main chemotherapy at re-exposure was FOLFIRI in 39.4%. Anti-EGFR re-exposure was associated with a distinct trend towards a better outcome (median OS 56.0 vs. 35.4 months, p = 0.06). In a subgroup comparison, reintroduction was associated with a higher OS and PFS in trend compared to the rechallenge (mOS 66 vs. 52.4, n.s., mPFS 7.33 vs. 3.68 months, n.s.). Conclusions: This retrospective study provides real-world evidence underscoring that anti-EGFR re-exposure strategies might benefit patients independently of the reason for prior discontinuation.
Hintergrund: Ab Frühjahr 2020 kam es zur weltweiten Verbreitung von SARS-CoV‑2 mit der heute als erste Welle der Pandemie bezeichneten Phase ab März 2020. Diese resultierte an vielen Kliniken in Umstrukturierungen und Ressourcenverschiebungen. Ziel unserer Arbeit war die Erfassung der Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf die universitäre Hals-Nasen-Ohren(HNO)-Heilkunde für die Forschung, Lehre und Weiterbildung. Material und Methoden: Die Direktorinnen und Direktoren der 39 Universitäts-HNO-Kliniken in Deutschland wurden mithilfe einer strukturierten Online-Befragung zu den Auswirkungen der Pandemie im Zeitraum von März bis April 2020 auf die Forschung, Lehre und die Weiterbildung befragt. Ergebnisse: Alle 39 Direktorinnen und Direktoren beteiligten sich an der Umfrage. Hiervon gaben 74,4 % (29/39) an, dass es zu einer Verschlechterung ihrer Forschungstätigkeit infolge der Pandemie gekommen sei. Von 61,5 % (24/39) wurde berichtet, dass pandemiebezogene Forschungsaspekte aufgegriffen wurden. Von allen Kliniken wurde eine Einschränkung der Präsenzlehre berichtet und 97,5 % (38/39) führten neue digitale Lehrformate ein. Im Beobachtungszeitraum sahen 74,4 % der Klinikdirektoren die Weiterbildung der Assistenten nicht gefährdet. Schlussfolgerung: Die Ergebnisse geben einen Einblick in die heterogenen Auswirkungen der Pandemie. Die kurzfristige Bearbeitung pandemiebezogener Forschungsthemen und die Einführung innovativer digitaler Konzepte für die studentische Lehre belegt eindrücklich das große innovative Potenzial und die schnelle Reaktionsfähigkeit der HNO-Universitätskliniken, um auch während der Pandemie ihre Aufgaben in der Forschung, Lehre und Weiterbildung bestmöglich zu erfüllen.
Background: Simultaneous pancreas kidney transplantation (SPK), pancreas transplantation alone (PTA) or pancreas transplantation after kidney (PAK) are the only curative treatment options for patients with type 1 (juvenile) diabetes mellitus with or without impaired renal function. Unfortunately, transplant waiting lists for this indication are increasing because the current organ acceptability criteria are restrictive; morbidity and mortality significantly increase with time on the waitlist. Currently, only pancreas organs from donors younger than 50 years of age and with a body mass index (BMI) less than 30 are allocated for transplantation in the Eurotransplant (ET) area. To address this issue we designed a study to increase the available donor pool for these patients.
Methods/Design: This study is a prospective, multicenter (20 German centers), single blinded, non-randomized, two armed trial comparing outcome after SPK, PTA or PAK between organs with the currently allowed donor criteria versus selected organs from donors with extended criteria. Extended donor criteria are defined as organs procured from donors with a BMI of 30 to 34 or a donor age between 50 and 60 years. Immunosuppression is generally standardized using induction therapy with Myfortic, tacrolimus and low dose steroids. In principle, all patients on the waitlist for primary SPK, PTA or PAK are eligible for the clinical trial when they consent to possibly receiving an extended donor criteria organ. Patients receiving an organ meeting the current standard criteria for pancreas allocation (control arm) are compared to those receiving extended criteria organ (study arm); patients are blinded for a follow-up period of one year. The combined primary endpoint is survival of the pancreas allograft and pancreas allograft function after three months, as an early relevant outcome parameter for pancreas transplantation.
Discussion: The EXPAND Study has been initiated to investigate the hypothesis that locally allocated extended criteria organs can be transplanted with similar results compared to the currently allowed standard ET organ allocation. If our study shows a favorable comparison to standard organ allocation criteria, the morbidity and mortality for patients waiting for transplantation could be reduced in the future.
Trial registered at: NCT01384006
Infections of the central nervous system (CNS) are infrequently diagnosed in immunocompetent patients, but they do occur in a significant proportion of patients with hematological disorders. In particular, patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation carry a high risk for CNS infections of up to 15%. Fungi and Toxoplasma gondii are the predominant causative agents. The diagnosis of CNS infections is based on neuroimaging, cerebrospinal fluid examination and biopsy of suspicious lesions in selected patients. However, identification of CNS infections in immunocompromised patients could represent a major challenge since metabolic disturbances, side-effects of antineoplastic or immunosuppressive drugs and CNS involvement of the underlying hematological disorder may mimic symptoms of a CNS infection. The prognosis of CNS infections is generally poor in these patients, albeit the introduction of novel substances (e.g. voriconazole) has improved the outcome in distinct patient subgroups. This guideline has been developed by the Infectious Diseases Working Party (AGIHO) of the German Society of Hematology and Medical Oncology (DGHO) with the contribution of a panel of 14 experts certified in internal medicine, hematology/oncology, infectious diseases, intensive care, neurology and neuroradiology. Grades of recommendation and levels of evidence were categorized by using novel criteria, as recently published by the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.
Chordomas are rare bone tumors with few therapeutic options. Here we show, using whole-exome and genome sequencing within a precision oncology program, that advanced chordomas (n = 11) may be characterized by genomic patterns indicative of defective homologous recombination (HR) DNA repair and alterations affecting HR-related genes, including, for example, deletions and pathogenic germline variants of BRCA2, NBN, and CHEK2. A mutational signature associated with HR deficiency was significantly enriched in 72.7% of samples and co-occurred with genomic instability. The poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitor olaparib, which is preferentially toxic to HR-incompetent cells, led to prolonged clinical benefit in a patient with refractory chordoma, and whole-genome analysis at progression revealed a PARP1 p.T910A mutation predicted to disrupt the autoinhibitory PARP1 helical domain. These findings uncover a therapeutic opportunity in chordoma that warrants further exploration, and provide insight into the mechanisms underlying PARP inhibitor resistance.
Ependymomas encompass a heterogeneous group of central nervous system (CNS) neoplasms that occur along the entire neuroaxis. In recent years, extensive (epi-)genomic profiling efforts have identified several molecular groups of ependymoma that are characterized by distinct molecular alterations and/or patterns. Based on unsupervised visualization of a large cohort of genome-wide DNA methylation data, we identified a highly distinct group of pediatric-type tumors (n = 40) forming a cluster separate from all established CNS tumor types, of which a high proportion were histopathologically diagnosed as ependymoma. RNA sequencing revealed recurrent fusions involving the pleomorphic adenoma gene-like 1 (PLAGL1) gene in 19 of 20 of the samples analyzed, with the most common fusion being EWSR1:PLAGL1 (n = 13). Five tumors showed a PLAGL1:FOXO1 fusion and one a PLAGL1:EP300 fusion. High transcript levels of PLAGL1 were noted in these tumors, with concurrent overexpression of the imprinted genes H19 and IGF2, which are regulated by PLAGL1. Histopathological review of cases with sufficient material (n = 16) demonstrated a broad morphological spectrum of tumors with predominant ependymoma-like features. Immunohistochemically, tumors were GFAP positive and OLIG2- and SOX10 negative. In 3/16 of the cases, a dot-like positivity for EMA was detected. All tumors in our series were located in the supratentorial compartment. Median age of the patients at the time of diagnosis was 6.2 years. Median progression-free survival was 35 months (for 11 patients with data available). In summary, our findings suggest the existence of a novel group of supratentorial neuroepithelial tumors that are characterized by recurrent PLAGL1 fusions and enriched for pediatric patients.
Molecular surveillance of carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria in liver transplant candidates
(2021)
Background: Carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (CRGN) cause life-threatening infections due to limited antimicrobial treatment options. The occurrence of CRGN is often linked to hospitalization and antimicrobial treatment but remains incompletely understood. CRGN are common in patients with severe illness (e.g., liver transplantation patients). Using whole-genome sequencing (WGS), we aimed to elucidate the evolution of CRGN in this vulnerable cohort and to reconstruct potential transmission routes.
Methods: From 351 patients evaluated for liver transplantation, 18 CRGN isolates (from 17 patients) were analyzed. Using WGS and bioinformatic analysis, genotypes and phylogenetic relationships were explored. Potential epidemiological links were assessed by analysis of patient charts.
Results: Carbapenem-resistant (CR) Klebsiella pneumoniae (n=9) and CR Pseudomonas aeruginosa (n=7) were the predominating pathogens. In silico analysis revealed that 14/18 CRGN did not harbor carbapenemase-coding genes, whereas in 4/18 CRGN, carbapenemases (VIM-1, VIM-2, OXA-232, and OXA-72) were detected. Among all isolates, there was no evidence of plasmid transfer-mediated carbapenem resistance. A close phylogenetic relatedness was found for three K. pneumoniae isolates. Although no epidemiological context was comprehensible for the CRGN isolates, evidence was found that the isolates resulted of a transmission of a carbapenem-susceptible ancestor before individual radiation into CRGN.
Conclusion: The integrative epidemiological study reveals a high diversity of CRGN in liver cirrhosis patients. Mutation of carbapenem-susceptible ancestors appears to be the dominant way of CR acquisition rather than in-hospital transmission of CRGN or carbapenemase-encoding genetic elements. This study underlines the need to avoid transmission of carbapenem-susceptible ancestors in vulnerable patient cohorts.