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Microeconomic modeling of investors behavior in financial markets and its results crucially depends on assumptions about the mathematical shape of the underlying preference functions as well as their parameterizations. With the purpose to shed some light on the question, which preferences towards risky financial outcomes prevail in stock markets, we adopted and applied a maximum likelihood approach from the field of experimental economics on a randomly selected dataset of 656 private investors of a large German discount brokerage firm. According to our analysis we find evidence that the majority of these clients follow trading pattern in accordance with Prospect Theory (Kahneman and Tversky (1979)). We also find that observable sociodemographic and personal characteristics such as gender or age don't seem to correlate with specific preference types. With respect to the overall impact of preferences on trading behavior, we find a moderate impact of preferences on trading decisions of individual investors. A classification of investors according to various utility types reveals that the strength of the impact of preferences on an investors' rading behavior is not connected to most personal characteristics, but seems to be related to round-trip length.
Shortcomings revealed by experimental and theoretical researchers such as Allais (1953), Rabin (2000) and Rabin and Thaler (2001) that put the classical expected utility paradigm von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) into question, led to the proposition of alternative and generalized utility functions, that intend to improve descriptive accuracy. The perhaps best known among those alternative preference theories, that has attracted much popularity among economists, is the so called Prospect Theory by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and Tversky and Kahneman (1992). Its distinctive features, governed by its set of risk parameters such as risk sensitivity, loss aversion and decision weights, stimulated a series of economic and financial models that build on the previously estimated parameter values by Tversky and Kahneman (1992) to analyze and explain various empirical phenomena for which expected utility doesn't seem to offer a satisfying rationale. In this paper, after providing a brief overview of the relevant literature, we take a closer look at one of those papers, the trading model of Vlcek and Hens (2011) and analyze its implications on Prospect Theory parameters using an adopted maximum likelihood approach for a dataset of 656 individual investors from a large German discount brokerage firm. We find evidence that investors in our dataset are moderately averse to large losses and display high risk sensitivity, supporting the main assumptions of Prospect Theory.
We use minutes from 17,000 financial advisory sessions and corresponding client portfolio data to study how active client involvement affects advisor recommendations and portfolio outcomes. We find that advisors confronted with acquiescent clients stick to their standards and recommend expensive but well diversified mutual fund portfolios. However, if clients take an active role in the meetings, advisors deviate markedly from their standards, resulting in poorer portfolio diversification and lower Sharpe ratios. Our findings that advisors cater to client requests parallel the phenomenon of doctors prescribing antibiotics to insistent patients even if inappropriate, and imply that pandering diminishes the quality of advice.
Vielfältige Einschnitte im Rentensystem haben die Bedeutung der privaten Altersvorsorge in den vergangenen Jahren massiv erhöht. Neben Immobilienbesitz, Lebensversicherungen und staatlich geförderten Programmen zur privaten Vorsorge hat sich inzwischen auch die eigenverantwortliche Altersvorsorge mit Wertpapierdepots etabliert, so dass die Anzahl privater Depots in den letzten 25 Jahren von 8,0 auf 27,9 Millionen gestiegen ist. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist die Frage von zentraler Bedeutung, wie gut Anleger ihr Geld investieren.
Manipulative communications touting stocks are common in capital markets around the world. Although the price distortions created by so-called “pump-and-dump” schemes are well known, little is known about the investors in these frauds. By examining 421 “pump-and-dump” schemes between 2002 and 2015 and a proprietary set of trading records for over 110,000 individual investors from a major German bank, we provide evidence on the participation rate, magnitude of the investments, losses, and the characteristics of the individuals who invest in such schemes. Our evidence suggests that participation is quite common and involves sizable losses, with nearly 6% of active investors participating in at least one “pump-and-dump” and an average loss of nearly 30%. Moreover, we identify several distinct types of investors, some of which should not be viewed as falling prey to these frauds. We also show that portfolio composition and past trading behavior can better explain participation in touted stocks than demographics. Our analysis offers insights into the challenges associated with designing effective investor protection against market manipulation.
IN THE PAST YEARS THE CUSTOMER FEEDBACK METRIC RECOMMENDATION INTENTION HAS GAINED IMPORTANCE, ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CONCEPT NET PROMOTER SCORE (NPS). THE NPS CONCEPT IMPLIES A POSITIVE, NON-LINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RECOMMENDATION INTENTION AND CUSTOMER VALUE. THIS ARTICLE INVESTIGATES THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RECOMMENDATION INTENTION OF INDIVIDUAL CUSTOMERS AND THEIR VALUE FOR THE FIRM. THE RESULTS SHOW THAT RECOMMENDATION INTENTION SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES CONTRIBUTION MARGIN BUT NEITHER RETENTION NOR CUSTOMER VALUE. THE METRIC SATISFACTION HAS A SIGNIFICANT, POSITIVE IMPACT ON CUSTOMER VALUE AND CAN THUS BE USED AS A LEADING INDICATOR. THEREFORE, THE RESULTS DO NOT CONFIRM THE SUPERIORITY OF THE NPS CONCEPT FOR CUSTOMER MANAGEMENT.
Background: Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC), a multisystem genetic disorder, affects many organs and systems, characterized by benign growths. This German multicenter study estimated the disease-specific costs and cost-driving factors associated with various organ manifestations in TSC patients. Methods: A validated, three-month, retrospective questionnaire was administered to assess the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, organ manifestations, direct, indirect, out-of-pocket, and nursing care-level costs, completed by caregivers of patients with TSC throughout Germany. Results: The caregivers of 184 patients (mean age 9.8 ± 5.3 years, range 0.7–21.8 years) submitted questionnaires. The reported TSC disease manifestations included epilepsy (92%), skin disorders (86%), structural brain disorders (83%), heart and circulatory system disorders (67%), kidney and urinary tract disorders (53%), and psychiatric disorders (51%). Genetic variations in TSC2 were reported in 46% of patients, whereas 14% were reported in TSC1. Mean total direct health care costs were EUR 4949 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) EUR 4088–5863, median EUR 2062] per patient over three months. Medication costs represented the largest direct cost category (54% of total direct costs, mean EUR 2658), with mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitors representing the largest share (47%, EUR 2309). The cost of anti-seizure drugs (ASDs) accounted for a mean of only EUR 260 (5%). Inpatient costs (21%, EUR 1027) and ancillary therapy costs (8%, EUR 407) were also important direct cost components. The mean nursing care-level costs were EUR 1163 (95% CI EUR 1027–1314, median EUR 1635) over three months. Total indirect costs totaled a mean of EUR 2813 (95% CI EUR 2221–3394, median EUR 215) for mothers and EUR 372 (95% CI EUR 193–586, median EUR 0) for fathers. Multiple regression analyses revealed polytherapy with two or more ASDs and the use of mTOR inhibitors as independent cost-driving factors of total direct costs. Disability and psychiatric disease were independent cost-driving factors for total indirect costs as well as for nursing care-level costs. Conclusions: This study revealed substantial direct (including medication), nursing care-level, and indirect costs associated with TSC over three months, highlighting the spectrum of organ manifestations and their treatment needs in the German healthcare setting.
Self-control failure is among the major pathologies (Baumeister et al. (1994)) affecting individual investment decisions which has hardly been measurable in empirical research. We use cigarette addiction identified from checking account transactions to proxy for low self-control and compare over 5,000 smokers to 14,000 nonsmokers. Smokers self-directing their investment trade more frequently, exhibit more biases and achieve lower portfolio returns. We also find that smokers, some of which might be aware of their limited levels of self-control, exhibit a higher propensity than nonsmokers to delegate decision making to professional advisors and fund managers. We document that such precommitments work successfully.
INDIVIDUALS WITH LOWER SELF-CONTROL OFTEN FAIL IN STICKING TO THEIR PLANS WHEN FACING STRONG TEMPTATIONS. ARE THEY ALSO PRONE TO EXHIBIT INVESTMENT BIASES AND SHOW A MORE IMPULSIVE TRADING BEHAVIOR WHILE FORFEITING POTENTIAL PERFORMANCE IN A FINANCIAL CONTEXT? WE USE CIGARETTE ADDICTION, IDENTIFIED THROUGH CHECKING ACCOUNT TRANSACTIONS, AS A PROXY FOR LOW SELFCONTROL AND COMPARE THE INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR OF SMOKERS TO THAT OF NONSMOKERS TO ADDRESS THIS QUESTION EMPIRICALLY.
