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Background: Biological psychiatry aims to understand mental disorders in terms of altered neurobiological pathways. However, for one of the most prevalent and disabling mental disorders, Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), patients only marginally differ from healthy individuals on the group-level. Whether Precision Psychiatry can solve this discrepancy and provide specific, reliable biomarkers remains unclear as current Machine Learning (ML) studies suffer from shortcomings pertaining to methods and data, which lead to substantial over-as well as underestimation of true model accuracy.
Methods: Addressing these issues, we quantify classification accuracy on a single-subject level in N=1,801 patients with MDD and healthy controls employing an extensive multivariate approach across a comprehensive range of neuroimaging modalities in a well-curated cohort, including structural and functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Diffusion Tensor Imaging as well as a polygenic risk score for depression.
Findings Training and testing a total of 2.4 million ML models, we find accuracies for diagnostic classification between 48.1% and 62.0%. Multimodal data integration of all neuroimaging modalities does not improve model performance. Similarly, training ML models on individuals stratified based on age, sex, or remission status does not lead to better classification. Even under simulated conditions of perfect reliability, performance does not substantially improve. Importantly, model error analysis identifies symptom severity as one potential target for MDD subgroup identification.
Interpretation: Although multivariate neuroimaging markers increase predictive power compared to univariate analyses, single-subject classification – even under conditions of extensive, best-practice Machine Learning optimization in a large, harmonized sample of patients diagnosed using state-of-the-art clinical assessments – does not reach clinically relevant performance. Based on this evidence, we sketch a course of action for Precision Psychiatry and future MDD biomarker research.
5-Lipoxygenase (5-LO) is the key enzyme in the formation of pro-inflammatory leukotrienes (LT) which play an important role in a number of inflammatory diseases. Accordingly, 5-LO inhibitors are frequently used to study the role of 5-LO and LT in models of inflammation and cancer. Interestingly, the therapeutic efficacy of these inhibitors is highly variable. Here we show that the frequently used 5-LO inhibitors AA-861, BWA4C, C06, CJ-13,610 and the FDA approved compound zileuton as well as the pan-LO inhibitor nordihydroguaiaretic acid interfere with prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) release into the supernatants of cytokine-stimulated (TNFα/IL-1β) HeLa cervix carcinoma, A549 lung cancer as well as HCA-7 colon carcinoma cells with similar potencies compared to their LT inhibitory activities (IC50 values ranging from 0.1–9.1 µM). In addition, AA-861, BWA4C, CJ-13,610 and zileuton concentration-dependently inhibited bacterial lipopolysaccharide triggered prostaglandin (PG) release into human whole blood. Western Blot analysis revealed that inhibition of expression of enzymes involved in PG synthesis was not part of the underlying mechanism. Also, liberation of arachidonic acid which is the substrate for PG synthesis as well as PGH2 and PGE2 formation were not impaired by the compounds. However, accumulation of intracellular PGE2 was found in the inhibitor treated HeLa cells suggesting inhibition of PG export as major mechanism. Further, experiments showed that the PG exporter ATP-binding cassette transporter multidrug resistance protein 4 (MRP-4) is targeted by the inhibitors and may be involved in the 5-LO inhibitor-mediated PGE2 inhibition. In conclusion, the pharmacological effects of a number of 5-LO inhibitors are compound-specific and involve the potent inhibition of PGE2 export. Results from experimental models on the role of 5-LO in inflammation and pain using 5-LO inhibitors may be misleading and their use as pharmacological tools in experimental models has to be revisited. In addition, 5-LO inhibitors may serve as new scaffolds for the development of potent prostaglandin export inhibitors.
Background: Clinical practice guidelines for patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) have been recently revised and implemented for well-established response criteria to standard first-line ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) therapy at 12 months after treatment initiation for the early identification of high-risk patients with inadequate treatment responses who may require treatment modification. However, there are only very limited data concerning the real-world clinical management of patients with PBC in Germany. Objective: The aim of this retrospective multicenter study was to evaluate response rates to standard first-line UDCA therapy and subsequent Second-line treatment regimens in a large cohort of well-characterized patients with PBC from 10 independent hepatological referral centers in Germany prior to the introduction of obeticholic acid as a licensed second-line treatment option. Methods: Diagnostic confirmation of PBC, standard first-line UDCA treatment regimens and response rates at 12 months according to Paris-I, Paris-II, and Barcelona criteria, the follow-up cut-off alkaline phosphatase (ALP) ≤ 1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and the normalization of bilirubin (bilirubin ≤ 1 × ULN) were retrospectively examined between June 1986 and March 2017. The management and hitherto applied second-line treatment regimens in patients with an inadequate response to UDCA and subsequent response rates at 12 months were also evaluated. Results: Overall, 480 PBC patients were included in this study. The median UDCA dosage was 13.2 mg UDCA/kg bodyweight (BW)/d. Adequate UDCA treatment response rates according to Paris-I, Paris-II, and Barcelona criteria were observed in 91, 71.3, and 61.3% of patients, respectively. In 83.8% of patients, ALP ≤ 1.67 × ULN were achieved. A total of 116 patients (24.2%) showed an inadequate response to UDCA according to at least one criterion. The diverse second-line treatment regimens applied led to significantly higher response rates according to Paris-II (35 vs. 60%, p = 0.005), Barcelona (13 vs. 34%, p = 0.0005), ALP ≤ 1.67 × ULN and bilirubin ≤ 1 × ULN (52.1 vs. 75%, p = 0.002). The addition of bezafibrates appeared to induce the strongest beneficial effect in this cohort (Paris II: 24 vs. 74%, p = 0.004; Barcelona: 50 vs. 84%, p = 0.046; ALP < 1.67 × ULN and bilirubin ≤ 1 × ULN: 33 vs. 86%, p = 0.001). Conclusion: Our large retrospective multicenter study confirms high response rates following UDCA first-line standard treatment in patients with PBC and highlights the need for close monitoring and early treatment modification in high-risk patients with an insufficient response to UDCA since early treatment modification significantly increases subsequent response rates of these patients.
Background: Intensive Care Resources are heavily utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, risk stratification and prediction of SARS-CoV-2 patient clinical outcomes upon ICU admission remain inadequate. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model, based on retrospective & prospective clinical data, to stratify patient risk and predict ICU survival and outcomes. Methods: A Germany-wide electronic registry was established to pseudonymously collect admission, therapeutic and discharge information of SARS-CoV-2 ICU patients retrospectively and prospectively. Machine learning approaches were evaluated for the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. The Explainable Boosting Machine approach was selected as the most suitable method. Individual, non-linear shape functions for predictive parameters and parameter interactions are reported. Results: 1039 patients were included in the Explainable Boosting Machine model, 596 patients retrospectively collected, and 443 patients prospectively collected. The model for prediction of general ICU outcome was shown to be more reliable to predict “survival”. Age, inflammatory and thrombotic activity, and severity of ARDS at ICU admission were shown to be predictive of ICU survival. Patients’ age, pulmonary dysfunction and transfer from an external institution were predictors for ECMO therapy. The interaction of patient age with D-dimer levels on admission and creatinine levels with SOFA score without GCS were predictors for renal replacement therapy. Conclusions: Using Explainable Boosting Machine analysis, we confirmed and weighed previously reported and identified novel predictors for outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Using this strategy, predictive modeling of COVID-19 ICU patient outcomes can be performed overcoming the limitations of linear regression models. Trial registration “ClinicalTrials” (clinicaltrials.gov) under NCT04455451.
Extensive black shale deposits formed in the Early Cretaceous South Atlantic, supporting the notion that this emerging ocean basin was a globally important site of organic carbon burial. The magnitude of organic carbon burial in marine basins is known to be controlled by various tectonic, oceanographic, hydrological, and climatic processes acting on different temporal and spatial scales, the nature and relative importance of which are poorly understood for the young South Atlantic. Here we present new bulk and molecular geochemical data from an Aptian–Albian sediment record recovered from the deep Cape Basin at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 361, which we combine with general circulation model results to identify driving mechanisms of organic carbon burial. A multimillion-year decrease (i.e., Early Aptian–Albian) in organic carbon burial, reflected in a lithological succession of black shale, gray shale, and red beds, was caused by increasing bottom water oxygenation due to abating hydrographic restriction via South Atlantic–Southern Ocean gateways. These results emphasize basin evolution and ocean gateway development as a decisive primary control on enhanced organic carbon preservation in the Cape Basin at geological timescales (> 1 Myr). The Early Aptian black shale sequence comprises alternations of shales with high (> 6 %) and relatively low (∼ 3.5 %) organic carbon content of marine sources, the former being deposited during the global Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, as well as during repetitive intervals before and after OAE 1a. In all cases, these short-term intervals of enhanced organic carbon burial coincided with strong influxes of sediments derived from the proximal African continent, indicating closely coupled climate–land–ocean interactions. Supported by our model results, we show that fluctuations in weathering-derived nutrient input from the southern African continent, linked to changes in orbitally driven humidity and aridity, were the underlying drivers of repetitive episodes of enhanced organic carbon burial in the deep Cape Basin. These results suggest that deep marine environments of emerging ocean basins responded sensitively and directly to short-term fluctuations in riverine nutrient fluxes. We explain this relationship using the lack of wide and mature continental shelf seas that could have acted as a barrier or filter for nutrient transfer from the continent into the deep ocean.
Purpose: Amblyopia with eccentric fixation, especially when not diagnosed early, is a therapeutic challenge, as visual outcome is known to be poorer than in amblyopia with central fixation. Consequently, treatment after late diagnosis is often denied. Electronic monitoring of occlusion provides us the chance to gain first focussed insight into age-dependent dose response and treatment efficiency, as well as the shift of fixation in this rare group of paediatric patients. Methods: In our prospective pilot study, we examined amblyopes with eccentric fixation during 12 months of occlusion treatment. We evaluated their visual acuity, recorded patching duration using a TheraMon®-microsensor, and determined their fixation with a direct ophthalmoscope. Dose-response relationship and treatment efficiency were calculated. Results: The study included 12 participants with strabismic and combined amblyopia aged 2.9–12.4 years (mean 6.5). Median prescription of occlusion was 7.7 h/day (range 6.6–9.9) and median daily received occlusion was 5.2 h/day (range 0.7–9.7). At study end, median acuity gain was 0.6 log units (range 0–1.6) and residual interocular visual acuity difference (IOVAD) 0.3 log units (range 0–1.8). There was neither significant acuity gain nor reduction in IOVAD after the 6th month of treatment. Children younger than 4 years showed best response with lowest residual IOVAD at study end. Efficiency calculation showed an acuity gain of approximately one line from 100 h of patching in the first 2 months and half a line after 6 months. There was a significant decline of treatment efficiency with age (p = 0.01). Foveolar fixation was achieved after median 3 months (range 1–6). Three patients (> 6 years) did not gain central fixation. Conclusion: Eccentric fixation is a challenge to therapy success. Based on electronic monitoring, our study quantified for the first time the reduction of treatment efficiency with increasing age in amblyopes with eccentric fixation. Despite some improvement in patients up to 8 years, older patients showed significantly lower treatment efficiency. In younger patients with good adherence, despite poor initial acuity, central fixation and low residual IOVAD could be attained after median 3 months. Hence, the necessity of early diagnosis and intensive occlusion should be emphasized.
Purpose: Amblyopia with eccentric fixation, especially when not diagnosed early, is a therapeutic challenge, as visual outcome is known to be poorer than in amblyopia with central fixation. Consequently, treatment after late diagnosis is often denied. Electronic monitoring of occlusion provides us the chance to gain first focussed insight into age-dependent dose response and treatment efficiency, as well as the shift of fixation in this rare group of paediatric patients. Methods: In our prospective pilot study, we examined amblyopes with eccentric fixation during 12 months of occlusion treatment. We evaluated their visual acuity, recorded patching duration using a TheraMon®-microsensor, and determined their fixation with a direct ophthalmoscope. Dose-response relationship and treatment efficiency were calculated. Results: The study included 12 participants with strabismic and combined amblyopia aged 2.9–12.4 years (mean 6.5). Median prescription of occlusion was 7.7 h/day (range 6.6–9.9) and median daily received occlusion was 5.2 h/day (range 0.7–9.7). At study end, median acuity gain was 0.6 log units (range 0–1.6) and residual interocular visual acuity difference (IOVAD) 0.3 log units (range 0–1.8). There was neither significant acuity gain nor reduction in IOVAD after the 6th month of treatment. Children younger than 4 years showed best response with lowest residual IOVAD at study end. Efficiency calculation showed an acuity gain of approximately one line from 100 h of patching in the first 2 months and half a line after 6 months. There was a significant decline of treatment efficiency with age (p = 0.01). Foveolar fixation was achieved after median 3 months (range 1–6). Three patients (> 6 years) did not gain central fixation. Conclusion: Eccentric fixation is a challenge to therapy success. Based on electronic monitoring, our study quantified for the first time the reduction of treatment efficiency with increasing age in amblyopes with eccentric fixation. Despite some improvement in patients up to 8 years, older patients showed significantly lower treatment efficiency. In younger patients with good adherence, despite poor initial acuity, central fixation and low residual IOVAD could be attained after median 3 months. Hence, the necessity of early diagnosis and intensive occlusion should be emphasized.
The Weissert Event ~133 million years ago marked a profound global cooling that punctuated the Early Cretaceous greenhouse. We present modelling, high-resolution bulk organic carbon isotopes and chronostratigraphically calibrated sea surface temperature (SSTs) based on an organic paleothermometer (the TEX86 proxy), which capture the Weissert Event in the semi-enclosed Weddell Sea basin, offshore Antarctica (paleolatitude ~54 °S; paleowater depth ~500 meters). We document a ~3–4 °C drop in SST coinciding with the Weissert cold end, and converge the Weddell Sea data, climate simulations and available worldwide multi-proxy based temperature data towards one unifying solution providing a best-fit between all lines of evidence. The outcome confirms a 3.0 °C ( ±1.7 °C) global mean surface cooling across the Weissert Event, which translates into a ~40% drop in atmospheric pCO2 over a period of ~700 thousand years. Consistent with geologic evidence, this pCO2 drop favoured the potential build-up of local polar ice.
Purpose: Amblyopia with eccentric fixation, especially when not diagnosed early, is a therapeutic challenge, as visual outcome is known to be poorer than in amblyopia with central fixation. Consequently, treatment after late diagnosis is often denied. Electronic monitoring of occlusion provides us the chance to gain first focussed insight into age-dependent dose response and treatment efficiency, as well as the shift of fixation in this rare group of paediatric patients. Methods: In our prospective pilot study, we examined amblyopes with eccentric fixation during 12 months of occlusion treatment. We evaluated their visual acuity, recorded patching duration using a TheraMon®-microsensor, and determined their fixation with a direct ophthalmoscope. Dose-response relationship and treatment efficiency were calculated. Results: The study included 12 participants with strabismic and combined amblyopia aged 2.9–12.4 years (mean 6.5). Median prescription of occlusion was 7.7 h/day (range 6.6–9.9) and median daily received occlusion was 5.2 h/day (range 0.7–9.7). At study end, median acuity gain was 0.6 log units (range 0–1.6) and residual interocular visual acuity difference (IOVAD) 0.3 log units (range 0–1.8). There was neither significant acuity gain nor reduction in IOVAD after the 6th month of treatment. Children younger than 4 years showed best response with lowest residual IOVAD at study end. Efficiency calculation showed an acuity gain of approximately one line from 100 h of patching in the first 2 months and half a line after 6 months. There was a significant decline of treatment efficiency with age (p = 0.01). Foveolar fixation was achieved after median 3 months (range 1–6). Three patients (> 6 years) did not gain central fixation. Conclusion: Eccentric fixation is a challenge to therapy success. Based on electronic monitoring, our study quantified for the first time the reduction of treatment efficiency with increasing age in amblyopes with eccentric fixation. Despite some improvement in patients up to 8 years, older patients showed significantly lower treatment efficiency. In younger patients with good adherence, despite poor initial acuity, central fixation and low residual IOVAD could be attained after median 3 months. Hence, the necessity of early diagnosis and intensive occlusion should be emphasized.
Background and Objectives: Delirium is a common and major complication subsequent to cardiac surgery. Despite scientific efforts, there are no parameters which reliably predict postoperative delirium. In delirium pathology, natriuretic peptides (NPs) interfere with the blood–brain barrier and thus promote delirium. Therefore, we aimed to assess whether NPs may predict postoperative delirium and long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: To evaluate the predictive value of NPs for delirium we retrospectively analyzed data from a prospective, randomized study for serum levels of atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) and the precursor of C-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proCNP) in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with or without cardiopulmonary bypass (off-pump coronary bypass grafting; OPCAB). Delirium was assessed by a validated chart-based method. Long-term outcomes were assessed 10 years after surgery by a telephone interview. Results: The overall incidence of delirium in the total cohort was 48% regardless of the surgical approach (CABG vs. OPCAB). Serum ANP levels >64.6 pg/mL predicted delirium with a sensitivity (95% confidence interval) of 100% (75.3–100) and specificity of 42.9% (17.7–71.1). Serum NT-proCNP levels >1.7 pg/mL predicted delirium with a sensitivity (95% confidence interval) of 92.3% (64.0–99.8) and specificity of 42.9% (17.7–71.1). Both NPs could not predict postoperative survival or long-term cognitive decline. Conclusions: We found a positive correlation between delirium and preoperative plasma levels of ANP and NT-proCNP. A well-powered and prospective study might identify NPs as biomarkers indicating the risk of delirium and postoperative cognitive decline in patients at risk for postoperative delirium.