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We educate investors about the benefits of dividend reinvestment and costs of misperceiving dividends as free income. The intervention increases planned dividend reinvestment in survey responses. Using trading records, we observe a causal increase in dividend reinvestment in the field of roughly 50 cents for every euro received. This holds relative to investors’ prior behavior
and various control samples. Investors who learned the most from the intervention update their trading the most. The results suggest the free dividends fallacy is a significant source of dividend demand. Our study demonstrates that simple, targeted, and focused educational interventions can affect investment behavior.
The effect of unconventional fiscal policy on consumption – new evidence based on transactional data
(2024)
We use novel transaction-level card expenditure data to estimate the effect of the temporary value-added tax (VAT) cut in Germany 2020. We find that the annualized growth rate of expenditures for durables increased by 6 percentage points (pp) during the tax cut, with a particularly strong increase of up to 11 pp for consumer electronics. The expenditure growth rate for semidurables and non-durables did not change by and large. The estimates imply a consumption multiplier of 0.2 and an elasticity of fiscal revenues to a VAT rate reduction of two thirds.
A bonus on the fine in response to the defendant running a corporate compliance program is superfluous because working leniency programs provide all the incentives necessary to implement efficient compliance. Others opposed to such a bonus argue that unreduced fines are sufficient to incentivize the adoption of effective corporate compliance programs. Proponents, on the other hand, argue that a reduction in fines conditional on running a corporate compliance program incentivizes more investments in compliance. Both arguments are incomplete. It is true that, generally, sanctions alone provide only suboptimal incentives to invest in compliance because some compliance investments (those in detecting infringements, i.e., "policing") can increase the detection probability for cartels that remain. However, leniency programs provide an additional incentive to invest in compliance to find cartels in-house as all cartelists strive for being the first to report. Comparing the two effects shows that under plausible assumptions the latter dominates, rendering a bonus on the fine superfluous.
The near-rationality hypothesis holds that even very small costs of optimization may lead people to act suboptimally. We embed this idea in a standard model of consumption-savings decisions: households pursue simple quick-fix consumption policies unless they pay a cost to optimize. We design a novel survey to explore this theory. The survey elicits households’ hypothetical consumption responses to a large number of unanticipated income shocks, allowing us to estimate household-level consumption policies. Consistent with the theory, 68% of households follow one of four simple quick-fix consumption rules that either fully consume or fully save out of small shocks before abruptly switching to similar consumption policies for large shocks. Households’ quick-fixing types account for 49% of the variance in MPCs across households, despite not being predictable by other demographic and economic information. Quantitatively, an incomplete-markets model calibrated to our survey findings generates more than three times as much size-dependence in the aggregate consumption response to government transfer shocks as the nested rational model. This large difference in behavior arises while households experience consumption-equivalent welfare costs of near-rationality of at most $65 per quarter.
Over the past decade, the Single Supervisory Mechanism focused on making banks safer, resulting in stronger banks but limited euro area cross-border integration. We argue that overbanking hinders both cross-border integration for the EU and the development and integration of capital markets. In addition to a common supervisory authority and to attain the strong and integrated financial system Europe needs going forward, the Banking Union and Capital Markets Union need to coexist and complement each other.
This document was provided/prepared by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the ECON Committee.
We revisit the limited stock market participation puzzle leveraging a qualitative research approach that is commonly used in many social sciences, but much less so in finance or economics. We conduct in-depth interviews of stock market participants and non-participants in Germany, a high-income country with a low stock market participation rate. Differently from a survey using preset questions based on theory, we elicit views in an open-ended discussion, which starts with a general question about “money”, is not flagged as regarding stock market participation, and allows for probing and follow-up questions. Many of the factors proposed by the literature are mentioned by interviewees. However, non-investors perceive surprisingly high entry and participation costs due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the potential for selecting “good” stocks and avoiding “bad” ones and for market timing through frequent trading. Surprisingly, the investors we interview often share these views. However, they find a way to overcome these costs with the help of family, friends, or financial advisors they trust. While the insights from our qualitative interviews are based on a small number of interviewees, we find consistent evidence in a population-wide survey of investors and non-investors.
The rise of shale gas and tight oil development has triggered a major debate about hydraulic fracturing (HF). In an effort to bring light to HF practices and their potential risks to water quality, many U.S. states have mandated disclosure for HF wells and the fluids used. We employ this setting to study whether targeting corporate activities that have dispersed externalities with transparency reduces their environmental impact. Examining salt concentrations that are considered signatures for HF impact, we find significant and lasting improvements in surface water quality between 9-14% after the mandates. Most of the improvement comes from the intensive margin. We document that operators pollute less per unit of production, cause fewer spills of HF fluids and wastewater and use fewer hazardous chemicals. Turning to how transparency regulation works, we show that it increases public pressure and enables social movements, which facilitates internalization.
We examine the impact of increasing competition among the fastest traders by analyzing a new low-latency microwave network connecting exchanges trading the same stocks. Using a difference-in-differences approach comparing German stocks with similar French stocks, we find improved market integration, faster incorporation of stock-specific information, and an increased contribution to price discovery by the smaller exchange. Liquidity worsens for large caps due to increased sniping but improves for mid caps due to fast liquidity provision. Trading volume on the smaller exchange declines across all stocks. We thus uncover nuanced effects of fast trader participation that depend on their prior involvement.
This paper investigates the implications of monetary policy rules during the surge and subsequent decline of inflation in the euro area and compares them to the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB). It focuses on versions of the Taylor (1993) and Orphanides and Wieland (OW) (2013) rules. Rules that respond to recent outcomes of HICP Core or domestic inflation data called for raising interest rates in 2021 and well ahead of the rate increases implemented by the ECB. Thus, such simple outcome-based policy rules deserve more attention in the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. Interestingly, the rules support the recent shift of the ECB to policy easing. Yet, they add a note of caution by suggesting that policy rates should not decline as fast as apparently anticipated by traded derivative-based interest rate forecasts.
We show that exposure to anti-capitalist ideology can exert a lasting influence on attitudes towards capital markets and stock-market participation. Utilizing novel survey, bank, and broker data, we document that, decades after Germany's reunification, East Germans invest significantly less in stocks and hold more negative views on capital markets. Effects vary by personal experience under communism. Results are strongest for individuals remembering life in the German Democratic Republic positively, e. g., because of local Olympic champions or living in a "showcase city". Results reverse for those with negative experiences like religious oppression, environmental pollution, or lack of Western TV entertainment.