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New particle formation in the upper free troposphere is a major global source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)1,2,3,4. However, the precursor vapours that drive the process are not well understood. With experiments performed under upper tropospheric conditions in the CERN CLOUD chamber, we show that nitric acid, sulfuric acid and ammonia form particles synergistically, at rates that are orders of magnitude faster than those from any two of the three components. The importance of this mechanism depends on the availability of ammonia, which was previously thought to be efficiently scavenged by cloud droplets during convection. However, surprisingly high concentrations of ammonia and ammonium nitrate have recently been observed in the upper troposphere over the Asian monsoon region5,6. Once particles have formed, co-condensation of ammonia and abundant nitric acid alone is sufficient to drive rapid growth to CCN sizes with only trace sulfate. Moreover, our measurements show that these CCN are also highly efficient ice nucleating particles—comparable to desert dust. Our model simulations confirm that ammonia is efficiently convected aloft during the Asian monsoon, driving rapid, multi-acid HNO3–H2SO4–NH3 nucleation in the upper troposphere and producing ice nucleating particles that spread across the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere.
A list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper New-particle formation is a major contributor to urban smog, but how it occurs in cities is often puzzling. If the growth rates of urban particles are similar to those found in cleaner environments (1–10 nanometres per hour), then existing understanding suggests that new urban particles should be rapidly scavenged by the high concentration of pre-existing particles. Here we show, through experiments performed under atmospheric conditions in the CLOUD chamber at CERN, that below about +5 degrees Celsius, nitric acid and ammonia vapours can condense onto freshly nucleated particles as small as a few nanometres in diameter. Moreover, when it is cold enough (below −15 degrees Celsius), nitric acid and ammonia can nucleate directly through an acid–base stabilization mechanism to form ammonium nitrate particles. Given that these vapours are often one thousand times more abundant than sulfuric acid, the resulting particle growth rates can be extremely high, reaching well above 100 nanometres per hour. However, these high growth rates require the gas-particle ammonium nitrate system to be out of equilibrium in order to sustain gas-phase supersaturations. In view of the strong temperature dependence that we measure for the gas-phase supersaturations, we expect such transient conditions to occur in inhomogeneous urban settings, especially in wintertime, driven by vertical mixing and by strong local sources such as traffic. Even though rapid growth from nitric acid and ammonia condensation may last for only a few minutes, it is nonetheless fast enough to shepherd freshly nucleated particles through the smallest size range where they are most vulnerable to scavenging loss, thus greatly increasing their survival probability. We also expect nitric acid and ammonia nucleation and rapid growth to be important in the relatively clean and cold upper free troposphere, where ammonia can be convected from the continental boundary layer and nitric acid is abundant from electrical storms.
Die Auswirkungen des ablaufenden Klimawandels werden zunehmend sichtbar. Pflanzenarten wandern nach Norden, beziehungsweise in höher gelegene Lagen. Die Reaktionen sind aber nicht an allen Artarealgrenzen gleich und die Rolle des Klimas muss auch nicht immer an allen Grenzen von gleich grosser Bedeutung sein. Anhand von Fallbeispielen werden ‘erwartete‘ und ‘unerwartete‘ Vegetationsveränderungen vorgestellt und im Hinblick auf die Rolle veränderter Klimabedingungen diskutie
Observed global and European spatiotemporal related fields of surface air temperature, mean-sea-level pressure and precipitation are analyzed statistically with respect to their response to external forcing factors such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases, anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, solar variations and explosive volcanism, and known internal climate mechanisms such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). As a first step, a principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to the observed spatiotemporal related fields to obtain spatial patterns with linear independent temporal structure. In a second step, the time series of each of the spatial patterns is subject to a stepwise regression analysis in order to separate it into signals of the external forcing factors and internal climate mechanisms as listed above as well as the residuals. Finally a back-transformation leads to the spatiotemporally related patterns of all these signals being intercompared. Two kinds of significance tests are applied to the anthropogenic signals. First, it is tested whether the anthropogenic signal is significant compared with the complete residual variance including natural variability. This test answers the question whether a significant anthropogenic climate change is visible in the observed data. As a second test the anthropogenic signal is tested with respect to the climate noise component only. This test answers the question whether the anthropogenic signal is significant among others in the observed data. Using both tests, regions can be specified where the anthropogenic influence is visible (second test) and regions where the anthropogenic influence has already significantly changed climate (first test).
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
Die Auswirkungen des globalen Klimawandels werden zunehmend sichtbar. In Deutschland haben sich die Jahresdurchschnittstemperatur im vergangenen Jahrhundert um 1 °C und die jährliche Niederschlagsmenge um + 9 % erhöht. Bezogen auf die Jahreszeiten ergeben sich jedoch deutliche Unterschiede, während die Sommermonate zunehmend niederschlagsärmer werden, erhöht sich die Niederschlagsmenge in den Wintermonaten überproportional (Schönwiese, 2002; Schönwiese & Janoschitz, 2005). Welche Folgen diese Veränderungen für die Waldökosysteme haben werden, wird in der Forstwirtschaft zu nehmend diskutiert. Allerdings gibt es bisher nur ökophysiologische, autökologische Ansätze. Synökologische Ansätze, die insbesondere auch die potenziellen Schadinsekten und damit die indirekten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels berücksichtigen, fehlen zumeist. Dies gilt auch für die Rotbuche deren waldbauliche Zukunft in jüngster Zeit diskutiert wurde (Rennenberg & al., 2004; Ammer & al., 2005; Kölling, & al., 2005).
Global biodiversity is changing rapidly and contemporary climate change is an important driver of this change. As climate change continues, the challenge is to understand how it may affect the future of biodiversity. This is relevant to informing policy and conservation, but it requires reliable future projections of biodiversity. Biodiversity is the variety of life on Earth which includes the diversity of species. The species on Earth are linked in diverse networks of biotic interactions. Interacting species can respond differently to climate change. This can cause spatial or temporal mismatches between interacting species and result in secondary extinctions of species that lose obligate interaction partners. Yet, accounting for biotic interactions in biodiversity projections remains challenging. One way to address this challenge is the use of trait-based approaches because the impact of climate change on interacting species is influenced by species’ functional traits, i.e., measurable characteristics of the species that influence their abiotic and biotic interactions. First, species’ functional traits influence how species respond to climate change. Second, they influence whether the species find compatible interaction partners in reshuffled species assemblages under climate change. Thus, the overarching aim of this dissertation was to explore how trait-based approaches can increase our understanding of how climate change might affect interacting species. For this, I focussed on interactions between fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores along a tropical elevational gradient.
I investigated three principal research questions. First, I investigated how traits related to the sensitivity of avian frugivores to climate change and their adaptive capacity vary along elevation and covary across species. I combined estimates of species’ climatic niche breadth (approximating species’ sensitivity) with traits influencing species’ dispersal ability, dietary niche breadth and habitat niche breadth (aspects of species’ adaptive capacity). Species’ climatic niche breadth increased with increasing elevation, while their dispersal ability and dietary niche breadth decreased with increasing elevation. Across species, there was no significant relationship of the sensitivity of the avian frugivores to climate change and their adaptive capacity. The opposing patterns of species’ sensitivity to climate change and their adaptive capacity along elevation imply that species from assemblages at different elevations may respond differently to climate change. The independence between species’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity suggests that it is important to account for both sensitivity and adaptive capacity to fully understand how climate change might affect biodiversity.
Second, I assessed how climate change might influence the co-occurrence of interaction partners with compatible traits, i.e., the functional correspondence of interacting species. I integrated future projections of species’ elevational ranges considering different vertical dispersal scenarios with analyses of the functional diversity of interacting species assemblages. The functional correspondence of fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores was lowest if plant and bird species were projected to contract their ranges towards higher elevations in response to increasing temperatures. Contrastingly, if species were projected to expand their ranges upslope, the functional correspondence remained close. The low functional correspondence under a scenario of range contraction indicates that plant species with specific traits might miss compatible interaction partners in future assemblages. This could negatively affect their seed dispersal ability. These results suggest that ensuring the integrity of biotic interactions under climate change requires that species can shift their ranges upslope unlimitedly.
Third, I examined whether avian seed dispersal is sufficient for plants to track future temperature change along the elevational gradient. With a trait-based modelling approach, I simulated seed-dispersal distances avian frugivores can provide to fleshy-fruited woody plant species and quantified the number of long-distance dispersal events the plant species would require to fully track projected temperature shifts along elevation. Most plant species were projected to require several long-distance dispersal events to fully track the projected temperature shifts in time. However, the number of required long-distance dispersal events varied with the degree of trait matching and plant species’ traits. These findings suggest that avian seed dispersal is insufficient for plants to track future temperature change along the elevational gradient as woody plant species might not be able to undergo several consecutive long-distance dispersal events within a short time window, due to their long maturation times. These results also imply that the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track climate change is associated with the specialization of the seed dispersal system and with plant species’ traits.
Trait-based approaches are promising tools to study impacts of climate change on interacting species. The trait-based approaches that I have developed in this thesis are applicable more widely, e.g., to other types of biotic interactions, or to assess the effects of other drivers of global change. Moreover, these approaches may be further developed to model changes in biotic interactions under global change more dynamically. Taken together, I have shown how a trait-based perspective could help to account for biotic interactions in biodiversity projections. The development of such approaches and the gained knowledge are urgently needed to facilitate the conservation of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world.
Background: Mitochondrial genes are among the most commonly used markers in studies of species’ phylogeography and to draw conclusions about taxonomy. The Hyles euphorbiae complex (HEC) comprises six distinct mitochondrial lineages in the Mediterranean region, of which one exhibits a cryptic disjunct distribution. The predominant mitochondrial lineage in most of Europe, euphorbiae, is also present on Malta; however, it is nowadays strangely absent from Southern Italy and Sicily, where it is replaced by 'italica'. A separate biological entity in Italy is further corroborated by larval colour patterns with a congruent, confined suture zone along the Northern Apennines. By means of historic DNA extracted from museum specimens, we aimed to investigate the evolution of the mitochondrial demographic structure of the HEC in Italy and Malta throughout the Twentieth Century.
Results: At the beginning of the Twentieth Century, the European mainland lineages were also present at a moderate frequency in Southern Italy and Sicily. The proportion of 'italica' then steadily increased in this area from below 60 percent to near fixation in about 120 years. Thus, geographical sorting of mitochondrial lineages in the HEC was not as complete then as the current demography suggests. The pattern of an integral 'italica' core region and a disjunct euphorbiae distribution evolved very recently. To explain these strong demographic changes, we propose genetic drift due to anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation in combination with an impact from recent climate warming that favoured the spreading of the potentially better adapted 'italica' populations.
Conclusions: The pattern of geographically separated mitochondrial lineages is commonly interpreted as representing long term separated entities. However, our results indicate that such a pattern can emerge surprisingly quickly, even in a widespread and rather common taxon. We thus caution against drawing hasty taxonomic conclusions from biogeographical patterns of mitochondrial markers derived from modern sampling alone.
This paper studies the macro-financial implications of using carbon prices to achieve ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. My empirical evidence shows a 0.6% output loss and a rise of 0.3% in inflation in response to a 1% shock on carbon policy. Furthermore, I also observe financial instability and allocation effects between the clean and highly polluted energy sectors. To have a better prediction of medium and long-term impact, using a medium-large macro-financial DSGE model with environmental aspects, I show the recessionary effect of an ambitious carbon price implementation to achieve climate targets, a 40% reduction in GHG emission causes a 0.7% output loss while reaching a zero-emission economy in 30 years causes a 2.6% output loss. I document an amplified effect of the banking sector during the transition path. The paper also uncovers the beneficial role of pre-announcements of carbon policies in mitigating inflation volatility by 0.2% at its peak, and our results suggest well-communicated carbon policies from authorities and investing to expand the green sector. My findings also stress the use of optimal green monetary and financial policies in mitigating the effects of transition risk and assisting the transition to a zero-emission world. Utilizing a heterogeneous approach with macroprudential tools, I find that optimal macroprudential tools can mitigate the output loss by 0.1% and investment loss by 1%. Importantly, my work highlights the use of capital flow management in the green transition when a global cooperative solution is challenging.
This study examines the urban heat island (UHI) of Brussels, for both current (2000–2009) and projected future (2060–2069) climate conditions, by employing very high resolution (250 m) modelling experiments, using the urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim. Meteorological parameters that are related to the intensity of the UHI are identified and it is investigated how these parameters and the magnitude of the UHI evolve for two plausible trajectories for future climate conditions. UHI intensity is found to be strongly correlated to the inversion strength in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere. The results for the future scenarios indicate that the magnitude of the UHI is expected to decrease slightly due to global warming. This can be attributed to the increased incoming longwave radiation, caused by higher air temperature and humidity values. The presence of the UHI also has a significant impact on the frequency of extreme temperature events in the city area, both in present and future climates, and exacerbates the impact of climate change on the urban population as the amount of heat wave days in the city increases twice as fast as in the rural surroundings.