Refine
Year of publication
Document Type
- Article (14)
- Working Paper (3)
- Doctoral Thesis (2)
- Part of a Book (1)
Has Fulltext
- yes (20)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (20)
Keywords
- Climate change (20) (remove)
Institute
- Geowissenschaften (5)
- Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum (BiK-F) (4)
- Senckenbergische Naturforschende Gesellschaft (4)
- Biowissenschaften (3)
- Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (3)
- Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE) (3)
- Wirtschaftswissenschaften (3)
- Institut für Ökologie, Evolution und Diversität (2)
- Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2)
- Extern (1)
The calcareous substrate of spring-fed fens makes them unique islands of biodiversity, hosting endangered, vulnerable, and protected vascular plants. Hence, spring-fed fens ecosystems require special conservation attention because many of them are destroyed (e.g. drained, forested) and it is extremely difficult or even impossible to restore the unique hydrogeological and geochemical conditions enabling their function. The long-term perspective of paleoecological studies allows indication of former wetland ecosystem states and provides understanding of their development over millennia. To examine the late Holocene dynamics of a calcareous spring-fed fen (Raganu Mire) ecosystem on the Baltic Sea coast (Latvia) in relation to environmental changes, substrate and human activity, we have undertaken high-resolution analyses of plant macrofossils, pollen, mollusc, stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotopes combined with radiocarbon dating (AMS) in three coring locations. Our study revealed that peat deposits began accumulating ca. 7000 cal. yr BP and calcareous deposits (tufa) from 1450 cal. yr BP, coinciding with regional hydrological changes. Several fire events occurred between 4000 and 1600 cal. yr BP, which appeared to have had a limited effect on local vegetation. The most significant changes in the forest and peatland ecosystems were at 3200 cal. yr BP associated with a dry climate stage and high fire activity, and then between 1400 and 500 cal. yr BP potentially associated with temperature changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age. Hydrological disturbances in the peatland catchment from 1400 cal. yr BP were most likely strengthened by human activity (deforestation) in this region. The relationship between the development of this peatland and changes in its catchment area, such as land cover changes or fluctuations in groundwater levels, suggest that protection and restoration of spring-fed fen ecosystems should also include the surrounding catchment. The presence of calcareous sediments, as well as appropriate temperature and local hydrological conditions appear to be the most crucial factors controlling Cladium marisus populations in our site - currently at the eastern limit of its distribution in Europe.
Background: Many fungal species occur across a variety of habitats. Particularly lichens, fungi forming symbioses with photosynthetic partners, have evolved remarkable tolerances for environmental extremes. Despite their ecological importance and ubiquity, little is known about the genetic basis of adaption in lichen populations. Here we studied patterns of genome-wide differentiation in the lichen-forming fungus Lasallia pustulata along an altitudinal gradient in the Mediterranean region. We resequenced six populations as pools and identified highly differentiated genomic regions. We then detected gene-environment correlations while controlling for shared population history and pooled sequencing bias, and performed ecophysiological experiments to assess fitness differences of individuals from different environments.
Results: We detected two strongly differentiated genetic clusters linked to Mediterranean and temperate-oceanic climate, and an admixture zone, which coincided with the transition between the two bioclimates. High altitude individuals showed ecophysiological adaptations to wetter and more shaded conditions. Highly differentiated genome regions contained a number of genes associated with stress response, local environmental adaptation, and sexual reproduction.
Conclusions: Taken together our results provide evidence for a complex interplay between demographic history and spatially varying selection acting on a number of key biological processes, suggesting a scenario of ecological speciation.
Background: Aedes albopictus and Ae. japonicus are two of the most widespread invasive mosquito species that have recently become established in western Europe. Both species are associated with the transmission of a number of serious diseases and are projected to continue their spread in Europe.
Methods: In the present study, we modelled the habitat suitability for both species under current and future climatic conditions by means of an Ensemble forecasting approach. We additionally compared the modelled MAXENT niches of Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus regarding temperature and precipitation requirements.
Results: Both species were modelled to find suitable habitat conditions in distinct areas within Europe: Ae. albopictus within the Mediterranean regions in southern Europe, Ae. japonicus within the more temperate regions of central Europe. Only in few regions, suitable habitat conditions were projected to overlap for both species. Whereas Ae. albopictus is projected to be generally promoted by climate change in Europe, the area modelled to be climatically suitable for Ae. japonicus is projected to decrease under climate change. This projection of range reduction under climate change relies on the assumption that Ae. japonicus is not able to adapt to warmer climatic conditions. The modelled MAXENT temperature niches of Ae. japonicus were found to be narrower with an optimum at lower temperatures compared to the niches of Ae. albopictus.
Conclusions: Species distribution models identifying areas with high habitat suitability can help improving monitoring programmes for invasive species currently in place. However, as mosquito species are known to be able to adapt to new environmental conditions within the invasion range quickly, niche evolution of invasive mosquito species should be closely followed upon in future studies.
This study examines the urban heat island (UHI) of Brussels, for both current (2000–2009) and projected future (2060–2069) climate conditions, by employing very high resolution (250 m) modelling experiments, using the urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim. Meteorological parameters that are related to the intensity of the UHI are identified and it is investigated how these parameters and the magnitude of the UHI evolve for two plausible trajectories for future climate conditions. UHI intensity is found to be strongly correlated to the inversion strength in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere. The results for the future scenarios indicate that the magnitude of the UHI is expected to decrease slightly due to global warming. This can be attributed to the increased incoming longwave radiation, caused by higher air temperature and humidity values. The presence of the UHI also has a significant impact on the frequency of extreme temperature events in the city area, both in present and future climates, and exacerbates the impact of climate change on the urban population as the amount of heat wave days in the city increases twice as fast as in the rural surroundings.
This paper studies the macro-financial implications of using carbon prices to achieve ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. My empirical evidence shows a 0.6% output loss and a rise of 0.3% in inflation in response to a 1% shock on carbon policy. Furthermore, I also observe financial instability and allocation effects between the clean and highly polluted energy sectors. To have a better prediction of medium and long-term impact, using a medium-large macro-financial DSGE model with environmental aspects, I show the recessionary effect of an ambitious carbon price implementation to achieve climate targets, a 40% reduction in GHG emission causes a 0.7% output loss while reaching a zero-emission economy in 30 years causes a 2.6% output loss. I document an amplified effect of the banking sector during the transition path. The paper also uncovers the beneficial role of pre-announcements of carbon policies in mitigating inflation volatility by 0.2% at its peak, and our results suggest well-communicated carbon policies from authorities and investing to expand the green sector. My findings also stress the use of optimal green monetary and financial policies in mitigating the effects of transition risk and assisting the transition to a zero-emission world. Utilizing a heterogeneous approach with macroprudential tools, I find that optimal macroprudential tools can mitigate the output loss by 0.1% and investment loss by 1%. Importantly, my work highlights the use of capital flow management in the green transition when a global cooperative solution is challenging.
Global biodiversity is changing rapidly and contemporary climate change is an important driver of this change. As climate change continues, the challenge is to understand how it may affect the future of biodiversity. This is relevant to informing policy and conservation, but it requires reliable future projections of biodiversity. Biodiversity is the variety of life on Earth which includes the diversity of species. The species on Earth are linked in diverse networks of biotic interactions. Interacting species can respond differently to climate change. This can cause spatial or temporal mismatches between interacting species and result in secondary extinctions of species that lose obligate interaction partners. Yet, accounting for biotic interactions in biodiversity projections remains challenging. One way to address this challenge is the use of trait-based approaches because the impact of climate change on interacting species is influenced by species’ functional traits, i.e., measurable characteristics of the species that influence their abiotic and biotic interactions. First, species’ functional traits influence how species respond to climate change. Second, they influence whether the species find compatible interaction partners in reshuffled species assemblages under climate change. Thus, the overarching aim of this dissertation was to explore how trait-based approaches can increase our understanding of how climate change might affect interacting species. For this, I focussed on interactions between fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores along a tropical elevational gradient.
I investigated three principal research questions. First, I investigated how traits related to the sensitivity of avian frugivores to climate change and their adaptive capacity vary along elevation and covary across species. I combined estimates of species’ climatic niche breadth (approximating species’ sensitivity) with traits influencing species’ dispersal ability, dietary niche breadth and habitat niche breadth (aspects of species’ adaptive capacity). Species’ climatic niche breadth increased with increasing elevation, while their dispersal ability and dietary niche breadth decreased with increasing elevation. Across species, there was no significant relationship of the sensitivity of the avian frugivores to climate change and their adaptive capacity. The opposing patterns of species’ sensitivity to climate change and their adaptive capacity along elevation imply that species from assemblages at different elevations may respond differently to climate change. The independence between species’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity suggests that it is important to account for both sensitivity and adaptive capacity to fully understand how climate change might affect biodiversity.
Second, I assessed how climate change might influence the co-occurrence of interaction partners with compatible traits, i.e., the functional correspondence of interacting species. I integrated future projections of species’ elevational ranges considering different vertical dispersal scenarios with analyses of the functional diversity of interacting species assemblages. The functional correspondence of fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores was lowest if plant and bird species were projected to contract their ranges towards higher elevations in response to increasing temperatures. Contrastingly, if species were projected to expand their ranges upslope, the functional correspondence remained close. The low functional correspondence under a scenario of range contraction indicates that plant species with specific traits might miss compatible interaction partners in future assemblages. This could negatively affect their seed dispersal ability. These results suggest that ensuring the integrity of biotic interactions under climate change requires that species can shift their ranges upslope unlimitedly.
Third, I examined whether avian seed dispersal is sufficient for plants to track future temperature change along the elevational gradient. With a trait-based modelling approach, I simulated seed-dispersal distances avian frugivores can provide to fleshy-fruited woody plant species and quantified the number of long-distance dispersal events the plant species would require to fully track projected temperature shifts along elevation. Most plant species were projected to require several long-distance dispersal events to fully track the projected temperature shifts in time. However, the number of required long-distance dispersal events varied with the degree of trait matching and plant species’ traits. These findings suggest that avian seed dispersal is insufficient for plants to track future temperature change along the elevational gradient as woody plant species might not be able to undergo several consecutive long-distance dispersal events within a short time window, due to their long maturation times. These results also imply that the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track climate change is associated with the specialization of the seed dispersal system and with plant species’ traits.
Trait-based approaches are promising tools to study impacts of climate change on interacting species. The trait-based approaches that I have developed in this thesis are applicable more widely, e.g., to other types of biotic interactions, or to assess the effects of other drivers of global change. Moreover, these approaches may be further developed to model changes in biotic interactions under global change more dynamically. Taken together, I have shown how a trait-based perspective could help to account for biotic interactions in biodiversity projections. The development of such approaches and the gained knowledge are urgently needed to facilitate the conservation of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world.
Die Auswirkungen des ablaufenden Klimawandels werden zunehmend sichtbar. Pflanzenarten wandern nach Norden, beziehungsweise in höher gelegene Lagen. Die Reaktionen sind aber nicht an allen Artarealgrenzen gleich und die Rolle des Klimas muss auch nicht immer an allen Grenzen von gleich grosser Bedeutung sein. Anhand von Fallbeispielen werden ‘erwartete‘ und ‘unerwartete‘ Vegetationsveränderungen vorgestellt und im Hinblick auf die Rolle veränderter Klimabedingungen diskutie
We document the individual willingness to act against climate change and study the role of social norms in a large sample of US adults. Individual beliefs about social norms positively predict pro-climate donations, comparable in strength to universal moral values and economic preferences such as patience and reciprocity. However, we document systematic misperceptions of social norms. Respondents vastly underestimate the prevalence of climate-friendly behaviors and norms. Correcting these misperceptions in an experiment causally raises individual willingness to act against climate change as well as individual support for climate policies. The effects are strongest for individuals who are skeptical about the existence and threat of global warming.
Background: Mitochondrial genes are among the most commonly used markers in studies of species’ phylogeography and to draw conclusions about taxonomy. The Hyles euphorbiae complex (HEC) comprises six distinct mitochondrial lineages in the Mediterranean region, of which one exhibits a cryptic disjunct distribution. The predominant mitochondrial lineage in most of Europe, euphorbiae, is also present on Malta; however, it is nowadays strangely absent from Southern Italy and Sicily, where it is replaced by 'italica'. A separate biological entity in Italy is further corroborated by larval colour patterns with a congruent, confined suture zone along the Northern Apennines. By means of historic DNA extracted from museum specimens, we aimed to investigate the evolution of the mitochondrial demographic structure of the HEC in Italy and Malta throughout the Twentieth Century.
Results: At the beginning of the Twentieth Century, the European mainland lineages were also present at a moderate frequency in Southern Italy and Sicily. The proportion of 'italica' then steadily increased in this area from below 60 percent to near fixation in about 120 years. Thus, geographical sorting of mitochondrial lineages in the HEC was not as complete then as the current demography suggests. The pattern of an integral 'italica' core region and a disjunct euphorbiae distribution evolved very recently. To explain these strong demographic changes, we propose genetic drift due to anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation in combination with an impact from recent climate warming that favoured the spreading of the potentially better adapted 'italica' populations.
Conclusions: The pattern of geographically separated mitochondrial lineages is commonly interpreted as representing long term separated entities. However, our results indicate that such a pattern can emerge surprisingly quickly, even in a widespread and rather common taxon. We thus caution against drawing hasty taxonomic conclusions from biogeographical patterns of mitochondrial markers derived from modern sampling alone.
Local climate change risk assessments (LCCRAs) are best supported by a quantitative integration of physical hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities that includes the characterization of uncertainties. We propose to use Bayesian Networks (BNs) for this task and show how to integrate freely-available output of multiple global hydrological models (GHMs) into BNs, in order to probabilistically assess risks for water supply. Projected relative changes in hydrological variables computed by three GHMs driven by the output of four global climate models were processed using MATLAB, taking into account local information on water availability and use. A roadmap to set up BNs and apply probability distributions of risk levels under historic and future climate and water use was co-developed with experts from the Maghreb (Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco) who positively evaluated the BN application for LCCRAs. We conclude that the presented approach is suitable for application in the many LCCRAs necessary for successful adaptation to climate change world-wide.