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We focus on the role of social media as a high-frequency, unfiltered mass information transmission channel and how its use for government communication affects the aggregate stock markets. To measure this effect, we concentrate on one of the most prominent Twitter users, the 45th President of the United States, Donald J. Trump. We analyze around 1,400 of his tweets related to the US economy and classify them by topic and textual sentiment using machine learning algorithms. We investigate whether the tweets contain relevant information for financial markets, i.e. whether they affect market returns, volatility, and trading volumes. Using high-frequency data, we find that Trump’s tweets are most often a reaction to pre-existing market trends and therefore do not provide material new information that would influence prices or trading. We show that past market information can help predict Trump’s decision to tweet about the economy.
Background: Germinal center-derived B cell lymphomas are tumors of the lymphoid tissues representing one of the most heterogeneous malignancies. Here we characterize the variety of transcriptomic phenotypes of this disease based on 873 biopsy specimens collected in the German Cancer Aid MMML (Molecular Mechanisms in Malignant Lymphoma) consortium. They include diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL), follicular lymphoma (FL), Burkitt’s lymphoma, mixed FL/DLBCL lymphomas, primary mediastinal large B cell lymphoma, multiple myeloma, IRF4-rearranged large cell lymphoma, MYC-negative Burkitt-like lymphoma with chr. 11q aberration and mantle cell lymphoma.
Methods: We apply self-organizing map (SOM) machine learning to microarray-derived expression data to generate a holistic view on the transcriptome landscape of lymphomas, to describe the multidimensional nature of gene regulation and to pursue a modular view on co-expression. Expression data were complemented by pathological, genetic and clinical characteristics.
Results: We present a transcriptome map of B cell lymphomas that allows visual comparison between the SOM portraits of different lymphoma strata and individual cases. It decomposes into one dozen modules of co-expressed genes related to different functional categories, to genetic defects and to the pathogenesis of lymphomas. On a molecular level, this disease rather forms a continuum of expression states than clearly separated phenotypes. We introduced the concept of combinatorial pattern types (PATs) that stratifies the lymphomas into nine PAT groups and, on a coarser level, into five prominent cancer hallmark types with proliferation, inflammation and stroma signatures. Inflammation signatures in combination with healthy B cell and tonsil characteristics associate with better overall survival rates, while proliferation in combination with inflammation and plasma cell characteristics worsens it. A phenotypic similarity tree is presented that reveals possible progression paths along the transcriptional dimensions. Our analysis provided a novel look on the transition range between FL and DLBCL, on DLBCL with poor prognosis showing expression patterns resembling that of Burkitt’s lymphoma and particularly on "double-hit" MYC and BCL2 transformed lymphomas.
Conclusions: The transcriptome map provides a tool that aggregates, refines and visualizes the data collected in the MMML study and interprets them in the light of previous knowledge to provide orientation and support in current and future studies on lymphomas and on other cancer entities.
The Gleason grading system remains the most powerful prognostic predictor for patients with prostate cancer since the 1960s. Its application requires highly-trained pathologists, is tedious and yet suffers from limited inter-pathologist reproducibility, especially for the intermediate Gleason score 7. Automated annotation procedures constitute a viable solution to remedy these limitations. In this study, we present a deep learning approach for automated Gleason grading of prostate cancer tissue microarrays with Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E) staining. Our system was trained using detailed Gleason annotations on a discovery cohort of 641 patients and was then evaluated on an independent test cohort of 245 patients annotated by two pathologists. On the test cohort, the inter-annotator agreements between the model and each pathologist, quantified via Cohen’s quadratic kappa statistic, were 0.75 and 0.71 respectively, comparable with the inter-pathologist agreement (kappa = 0.71). Furthermore, the model’s Gleason score assignments achieved pathology expert-level stratification of patients into prognostically distinct groups, on the basis of disease-specific survival data available for the test cohort. Overall, our study shows promising results regarding the applicability of deep learning-based solutions towards more objective and reproducible prostate cancer grading, especially for cases with heterogeneous Gleason patterns.
The hierarchical feature regression (HFR) is a novel graph-based regularized regression estimator, which mobilizes insights from the domains of machine learning and graph theory to estimate robust parameters for a linear regression. The estimator constructs a supervised feature graph that decomposes parameters along its edges, adjusting first for common variation and successively incorporating idiosyncratic patterns into the fitting process. The graph structure has the effect of shrinking parameters towards group targets, where the extent of shrinkage is governed by a hyperparameter, and group compositions as well as shrinkage targets are determined endogenously. The method offers rich resources for the visual exploration of the latent effect structure in the data, and demonstrates good predictive accuracy and versatility when compared to a panel of commonly used regularization techniques across a range of empirical and simulated regression tasks.
Motivation: Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are probabilistic models commonly used in biomedical research to detect subgroup structures in data sets with one-dimensional information. Reliable model parameterization requires that the number of modes, i.e., states of the generating process, is known. However, this is rarely the case for empirically measured biomedical data. Several implementations are available that estimate GMM parameters differently. This work aims to provide a comparative evaluation of automated GMM fitting methods.
Results and conclusions: The performance of commonly used algorithms for automatic parameterization and mode number determination was compared with respect to reproducing the ground truth of generated data derived from multiple normal distributions. Four main variants of Gaussian mode number detection algorithms and five variants of GMM parameter estimation methods were tested in a combinatory scenario. The combination of best performing mode number determination algorithms and GMM parameter estimation methods was then tested on artificial and real-live data sets known to display a GMM structure. None of the tested methods correctly determined the underlying data structure consistently. The likelihood ratio test had the best performance in identifying the mode number associated with the best GMM fit of the data distribution while the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was best for GMM parameter estimation while. The combination of the two methods of number determination algorithms and GMM parameter estimation was consistently among the best and overall outperformed the available implementations.
Implementation: An automated tool for the detection of GMM based structures in (biomedical) datasets was created based on the present results and made freely available in the R library “opGMMassessment” at https://cran.r-project.org/package=opGMMassessment.
Objectives: To analyze the performance of radiological assessment categories and quantitative computational analysis of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps using variant machine learning algorithms to differentiate clinically significant versus insignificant prostate cancer (PCa). Methods: Retrospectively, 73 patients were included in the study. The patients (mean age, 66.3 ± 7.6 years) were examined with multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) prior to radical prostatectomy (n = 33) or targeted biopsy (n = 40). The index lesion was annotated in MRI ADC and the equivalent histologic slides according to the highest Gleason Grade Group (GrG). Volumes of interest (VOIs) were determined for each lesion and normal-appearing peripheral zone. VOIs were processed by radiomic analysis. For the classification of lesions according to their clinical significance (GrG ≥ 3), principal component (PC) analysis, univariate analysis (UA) with consecutive support vector machines, neural networks, and random forest analysis were performed. Results: PC analysis discriminated between benign and malignant prostate tissue. PC evaluation yielded no stratification of PCa lesions according to their clinical significance, but UA revealed differences in clinical assessment categories and radiomic features. We trained three classification models with fifteen feature subsets. We identified a subset of shape features which improved the diagnostic accuracy of the clinical assessment categories (maximum increase in diagnostic accuracy ΔAUC = + 0.05, p < 0.001) while also identifying combinations of features and models which reduced overall accuracy. Conclusions: The impact of radiomic features to differentiate PCa lesions according to their clinical significance remains controversial. It depends on feature selection and the employed machine learning algorithms. It can result in improvement or reduction of diagnostic performance.
CRFVoter : gene and protein related object recognition using a conglomerate of CRF-based tools
(2019)
Background: Gene and protein related objects are an important class of entities in biomedical research, whose identification and extraction from scientific articles is attracting increasing interest. In this work, we describe an approach to the BioCreative V.5 challenge regarding the recognition and classification of gene and protein related objects. For this purpose, we transform the task as posed by BioCreative V.5 into a sequence labeling problem. We present a series of sequence labeling systems that we used and adapted in our experiments for solving this task. Our experiments show how to optimize the hyperparameters of the classifiers involved. To this end, we utilize various algorithms for hyperparameter optimization. Finally, we present CRFVoter, a two-stage application of Conditional Random Field (CRF) that integrates the optimized sequence labelers from our study into one ensemble classifier.
Results: We analyze the impact of hyperparameter optimization regarding named entity recognition in biomedical research and show that this optimization results in a performance increase of up to 60%. In our evaluation, our ensemble classifier based on multiple sequence labelers, called CRFVoter, outperforms each individual extractor’s performance. For the blinded test set provided by the BioCreative organizers, CRFVoter achieves an F-score of 75%, a recall of 71% and a precision of 80%. For the GPRO type 1 evaluation, CRFVoter achieves an F-Score of 73%, a recall of 70% and achieved the best precision (77%) among all task participants.
Conclusion: CRFVoter is effective when multiple sequence labeling systems are to be used and performs better then the individual systems collected by it.
Purpose: To develop and validate a CT-based radiomics signature for the prognosis of loco-regional tumour control (LRC) in patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated by primary radiochemotherapy (RCTx) based on retrospective data from 6 partner sites of the German Cancer Consortium - Radiation Oncology Group (DKTK-ROG).
Material and methods: Pre-treatment CT images of 318 patients with locally advanced HNSCC were collected. Four-hundred forty-six features were extracted from each primary tumour volume and then filtered through stability analysis and clustering. First, a baseline signature was developed from demographic and tumour-associated clinical parameters. This signature was then supplemented by CT imaging features. A final signature was derived using repeated 3-fold cross-validation on the discovery cohort. Performance in external validation was assessed by the concordance index (C-Index). Furthermore, calibration and patient stratification in groups with low and high risk for loco-regional recurrence were analysed.
Results: For the clinical baseline signature, only the primary tumour volume was selected. The final signature combined the tumour volume with two independent radiomics features. It achieved moderately good discriminatory performance (C-Index [95% confidence interval]: 0.66 [0.55–0.75]) on the validation cohort along with significant patient stratification (p = 0.005) and good calibration.
Conclusion: We identified and validated a clinical-radiomics signature for LRC of locally advanced HNSCC using a multi-centric retrospective dataset. Prospective validation will be performed on the primary cohort of the HNprädBio trial of the DKTK-ROG once follow-up is completed.
Background: The prevalence of multimorbidity is increasing in recent years, and patients with multimorbidity often have a decrease in quality of life and require more health care. The aim of this study was to explore the evolution of multimorbidity taking the sequence of diseases into consideration.
Methods: We used a Belgian database collected by extracting coded parameters and more than 100 chronic conditions from the Electronic Health Records of general practitioners to study patients older than 40 years with multiple diagnoses between 1991 and 2015 (N = 65 939). We applied Markov chains to estimate the probability of developing another condition in the next state after a diagnosis. The results of Weighted Association Rule Mining (WARM) allow us to show strong associations among multiple conditions.
Results: About 66.9% of the selected patients had multimorbidity. Conditions with high prevalence, such as hypertension and depressive disorder, were likely to occur after the diagnosis of most conditions. Patterns in several disease groups were apparent based on the results of both Markov chain and WARM, such as musculoskeletal diseases and psychological diseases. Psychological diseases were frequently followed by irritable bowel syndrome.
Conclusions: Our study used Markov chains and WARM for the first time to provide a comprehensive view of the relations among 103 chronic conditions, taking sequential chronology into consideration. Some strong associations among specific conditions were detected and the results were consistent with current knowledge in literature, meaning the approaches were valid to be used on larger data sets, such as National Health care Systems or private insurers.
Purpose: To determine whether machine learning assisted-texture analysis of multi-energy virtual monochromatic image (VMI) datasets from dual-energy CT (DECT) can be used to differentiate metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) lymph nodes from lymphoma, inflammatory, or normal lymph nodes.
Materials and methods: A retrospective evaluation of 412 cervical nodes from 5 different patient groups (50 patients in total) having undergone DECT of the neck between 2013 and 2015 was performed: (1) HNSCC with pathology proven metastatic adenopathy, (2) HNSCC with pathology proven benign nodes (controls for (1)), (3) lymphoma, (4) inflammatory, and (5) normal nodes (controls for (3) and (4)). Texture analysis was performed with TexRAD® software using two independent sets of contours to assess the impact of inter-rater variation. Two machine learning algorithms (Random Forests (RF) and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM)) were used with independent training and testing sets and determination of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and AUC.
Results: In the independent testing (prediction) sets, the accuracy for distinguishing different groups of pathologic nodes or normal nodes ranged between 80 and 95%. The models generated using texture data extracted from the independent contour sets had substantial to almost perfect agreement. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV for correctly classifying a lymph node as malignant (i.e. metastatic HNSCC or lymphoma) versus benign were 92%, 91%, 93%, 95%, 87%, respectively.
Conclusion: Machine learning assisted-DECT texture analysis can help distinguish different nodal pathology and normal nodes with a high accuracy.