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In physics, the wavefunctions of bosonic particles collapse when the system undergoes a Bose–Einstein condensation. In game theory, the strategy of an agent describes the probability to engage in a certain course of action. Strategies are expected to differ in competitive situations, namely when there is a penalty to do the same as somebody else. We study what happens when agents are interested how they fare not only in absolute terms, but also relative to others. This preference, denoted envy, is shown to induce the emergence of distinct social classes via a collective strategy condensation transition. Members of the lower class pursue identical strategies, in analogy to the Bose–Einstein condensation, with the upper class remaining individualistic.
Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities
(2021)
The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an important role not only for the baseline infection rate, but also for short and long-term reactions to the outbreak. We propose to investigate the question of how societies as a whole, and governments in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalization of the SIR model, the reactive SIR (short-term and long-term reaction) model. We posit that containment measures are equivalent to a feedback between the status of the outbreak and the reproduction factor. Short-term reaction to an outbreak corresponds in this framework to the reaction of governments and individuals to daily cases and fatalities. The reaction to the cumulative number of cases or deaths, and not to daily numbers, is captured in contrast by long-term reaction. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short and long-term control parameters. We find increased contributions of long-term control for countries and regions in which the outbreak was suppressed substantially together with a strong correlation between the strength of societal and governmental policies and the time needed to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, for numerous countries and regions we identified a predictive relation between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak of daily fatality counts, which allows to gauge the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks that should be expected after the peak. These results suggest that the proposed model is applicable not only for understanding the outbreak dynamics, but also for predicting future cases and fatalities once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty. Finally, we provide a web app (https://itp.uni-frankfurt.de/covid-19/) with tools for visualising the phase space representation of real-world COVID-19 data and for exporting the preprocessed data for further analysis.
Recurrent cortical networks provide reservoirs of states that are thought to play a crucial role for sequential information processing in the brain. However, classical reservoir computing requires manual adjustments of global network parameters, particularly of the spectral radius of the recurrent synaptic weight matrix. It is hence not clear if the spectral radius is accessible to biological neural networks. Using random matrix theory, we show that the spectral radius is related to local properties of the neuronal dynamics whenever the overall dynamical state is only weakly correlated. This result allows us to introduce two local homeostatic synaptic scaling mechanisms, termed flow control and variance control, that implicitly drive the spectral radius toward the desired value. For both mechanisms the spectral radius is autonomously adapted while the network receives and processes inputs under working conditions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the two adaptation mechanisms under different external input protocols. Moreover, we evaluated the network performance after adaptation by training the network to perform a time-delayed XOR operation on binary sequences. As our main result, we found that flow control reliably regulates the spectral radius for different types of input statistics. Precise tuning is however negatively affected when interneural correlations are substantial. Furthermore, we found a consistent task performance over a wide range of input strengths/variances. Variance control did however not yield the desired spectral radii with the same precision, being less consistent across different input strengths. Given the effectiveness and remarkably simple mathematical form of flow control, we conclude that self-consistent local control of the spectral radius via an implicit adaptation scheme is an interesting and biological plausible alternative to conventional methods using set point homeostatic feedback controls of neural firing.
The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name the controlled-SIR model, in which the disease reproduction rate evolves dynamically in response to political and societal reactions. An analytic solution is presented. The model reproduces official COVID-19 cases counts of a large number of regions and countries that surpassed the first peak of the outbreak. A single unbiased feedback parameter is extracted from field data and used to formulate an index that measures the efficiency of containment strategies (the CEI index). CEI values for a range of countries are given. For two variants of the controlled-SIR model, detailed estimates of the total medical and socio-economic costs are evaluated over the entire course of the epidemic. Costs comprise medical care cost, the economic cost of social distancing, as well as the economic value of lives saved. Under plausible parameters, strict measures fare better than a hands-off policy. Strategies based on current case numbers lead to substantially higher total costs than strategies based on the overall history of the epidemic.
Human societies are characterized by three constituent features, besides others. (A) Options, as for jobs and societal positions, differ with respect to their associated monetary and non-monetary payoffs. (B) Competition leads to reduced payoffs when individuals compete for the same option as others. (C) People care about how they are doing relatively to others. The latter trait –the propensity to compare one’s own success with that of others– expresses itself as envy. It is shown that the combination of (A)–(C) leads to spontaneous class stratification. Societies of agents split endogenously into two social classes, an upper and a lower class, when envy becomes relevant. A comprehensive analysis of the Nash equilibria characterizing a basic reference game is presented. Class separation is due to the condensation of the strategies of lower-class agents, which play an identical mixed strategy. Upper-class agents do not condense, following individualist pure strategies. The model and results are size-consistent, holding for arbitrary large numbers of agents and options. Analytic results are confirmed by extensive numerical simulations. An analogy to interacting confined classical particles is discussed.
Cortical pyramidal neurons have a complex dendritic anatomy, whose function is an active research field. In particular, the segregation between its soma and the apical dendritic tree is believed to play an active role in processing feed-forward sensory information and top-down or feedback signals. In this work, we use a simple two-compartment model accounting for the nonlinear interactions between basal and apical input streams and show that standard unsupervised Hebbian learning rules in the basal compartment allow the neuron to align the feed-forward basal input with the top-down target signal received by the apical compartment. We show that this learning process, termed coincidence detection, is robust against strong distractions in the basal input space and demonstrate its effectiveness in a linear classification task.
Charts are used to measure relative success for a large variety of cultural items. Traditional music charts have been shown to follow self-organizing principles with regard to the distribution of item lifetimes, the on-chart residence times. Here we examine if this observation holds also for (a) music streaming charts (b) book best-seller lists and (c) for social network activity charts, such as Twitter hashtags and the number of comments Reddit postings receive. We find that charts based on the active production of items, like commenting, are more likely to be influenced by external factors, in particular by the 24 h day–night cycle. External factors are less important for consumption-based charts (sales, downloads), which can be explained by a generic theory of decision-making. In this view, humans aim to optimize the information content of the internal representation of the outside world, which is logarithmically compressed. Further support for information maximization is argued to arise from the comparison of hourly, daily and weekly charts, which allow to gauge the importance of decision times with respect to the chart compilation period.
Learning and animal movement
(2021)
Integrating diverse concepts from animal behavior, movement ecology, and machine learning, we develop an overview of the ecology of learning and animal movement. Learning-based movement is clearly relevant to ecological problems, but the subject is rooted firmly in psychology, including a distinct terminology. We contrast this psychological origin of learning with the task-oriented perspective on learning that has emerged from the field of machine learning. We review conceptual frameworks that characterize the role of learning in movement, discuss emerging trends, and summarize recent developments in the analysis of movement data. We also discuss the relative advantages of different modeling approaches for exploring the learning-movement interface. We explore in depth how individual and social modalities of learning can matter to the ecology of animal movement, and highlight how diverse kinds of field studies, ranging from translocation efforts to manipulative experiments, can provide critical insight into the learning process in animal movement.
Stationarity of the constituents of the body and of its functionalities is a basic requirement for life, being equivalent to survival in first place. Assuming that the resting state activity of the brain serves essential functionalities, stationarity entails that the dynamics of the brain needs to be regulated on a time-averaged basis. The combination of recurrent and driving external inputs must therefore lead to a non-trivial stationary neural activity, a condition which is fulfiled for afferent signals of varying strengths only close to criticality. In this view, the benefits of working in the vicinity of a second-order phase transition, such as signal enhancements, are not the underlying evolutionary drivers, but side effects of the requirement to keep the brain functional in first place. It is hence more appropriate to use the term 'self-regulated' in this context, instead of 'self-organized'.
Envy, the inclination to compare rewards, can be expected to unfold when inequalities in terms of pay-off differences are generated in competitive societies. It is shown that increasing levels of envy lead inevitably to a self-induced separation into a lower and an upper class. Class stratification is Nash stable and strict, with members of the same class receiving identical rewards. Upper-class agents play exclusively pure strategies, all lower-class agents the same mixed strategy. The fraction of upper-class agents decreases progressively with larger levels of envy, until a single upper-class agent is left. Numerical simulations and a complete analytic treatment of a basic reference model, the shopping trouble model, are presented. The properties of the class-stratified society are universal and only indirectly controllable through the underlying utility function, which implies that class-stratified societies are intrinsically resistant to political control. Implications for human societies are discussed. It is pointed out that the repercussions of envy are amplified when societies become increasingly competitive.