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How does group identity affect belief formation? To address this question, we conduct a series of online experiments with a representative sample of individuals in the US. Using the setting of the 2020 US presidential election, we find evidence of intergroup preference across three distinct components of the belief formation cycle: a biased prior belief, avoid-ance of outgroup information sources, and a belief-updating process that places greater (less) weight on prior (new) information. We further find that an intervention reducing the salience of information sources decreases outgroup information avoidance by 50%. In a social learn-ing context in wave 2, we find participants place 33% more weight on ingroup than outgroup guesses. Through two waves of interventions, we identify source utility as the mechanism driving group effects in belief formation. Our analyses indicate that our observed effects are driven by groupy participants who exhibit stable and consistent intergroup preferences in both allocation decisions and belief formation across all three waves. These results suggest that policymakers could reduce the salience of group and partisan identity associated with a policy to decrease outgroup information avoidance and increase policy uptake.
This paper applies structure preserving doubling methods to solve the matrix quadratic underlying the recursive solution of linear DSGE models. We present and compare two Structure-Preserving Doubling Algorithms ( SDAs) to other competing methods – the QZ method, a Newton algorithm, and an iterative Bernoulli approach – as well as the related cyclic and logarithmic reduction algorithms. Our comparison is completed using nearly 100 different models from the Macroeconomic Model Data Base (MMB) and different parameterizations of the monetary policy rule in the medium scale New Keynesian model of Smets and Wouters (2007) iteratively. We find that both SDAs perform very favorably relative to QZ, with generally more accurate solutions computed in less time. While we collect theoretical convergence results that promise quadratic convergence rates to a unique stable solution, the algorithms may fail to converge when there is a breakdown due to singularity of the coefficient matrices in the recursion. One of the proposed algorithms can overcome this problem by an appropriate (re)initialization. This SDA also performs particular well in refining solutions of different methods or from nearby parameterizations.
Whatever it takes to understand a central banker : embedding their words using neural networks
(2023)
Dictionary approaches are at the forefront of current techniques for quantifying central bank communication. In this paper, the author propose a novel language model that is able to capture subtleties of messages such as one of the most famous sentences in central bank communications when ECB President Mario Draghi stated that "within [its] mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro".
The authors utilize a text corpus that is unparalleled in size and diversity in the central bank communication literature, as well as introduce a novel approach to text quantication from computational linguistics. This allows them to provide high-quality central bank-specific textual representations and demonstrate their applicability by developing an index that tracks deviations in the Fed's communication towards inflation targeting. Their findings indicate that these deviations in communication significantly impact monetary policy actions, substantially reducing the reaction towards inflation deviation in the US.
Standard applications of the consumption-based asset pricing model assume that goods and services within the nondurable consumption bundle are substitutes. We estimate substitution elasticities between different consumption bundles and show that households cannot substitute energy consumption by consumption of other nondurables. As a consequence, energy consumption affects the pricing function as a separate factor. Variation in energy consumption betas explains a large part of the premia related to value, investment, and operating profitability. For example, value stocks are typically more energy-intensive than growth stocks and thus riskier, since they suffer more from the oil supply shocks that also affect households.
We propose a model with mean-variance foreign investors who exhibit a convex disutility associated to brown bond holdings. The model predicts that bond green premia should be smaller in economies with a closer financial account and highly volatile exchange rates. This happens because foreign intermediaries invest relatively less in such economies, and this lowers the marginal disutility of investing in polluting activities. We find strong empirical evidence in favor of this hypothesis using a global bond market dataset. Exchange rate volatility and financial account openness are thus able to explain the higher financing costs of green projects in emerging markets relative to advanced economies, especially when green bonds are denominated in local currency: a disadvantage that we can call the "green sin" of emerging economies.
This study looks at potential windfall profits for the four banking acquisitions in 2023. Based on accounting figures, an FT article states that a total of USD 44bn was left on the table. We see accounting figures as a misleading analysis. By estimating marked-based cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), we find positive abnormal returns in all four cases which when made quantifiable, are around half of the FT’s accounting figures. Furthermore, we argue that transparent auctions with enough bidders should be preferred to negotiated bank sales.
This document was provided/prepared by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the ECON Committee.
This paper develops and implements a backward and forward error analysis of and condition numbers for the numerical stability of the solutions of linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Comparing seven different solution methods from the literature, I demonstrate an economically significant loss of accuracy specifically in standard, generalized Schur (or QZ) decomposition based solutions methods resulting from large backward errors in solving the associated matrix quadratic problem. This is illustrated in the monetary macro model of Smets and Wouters (2007) and two production-based asset pricing models, a simple model of external habits with a readily available symbolic solution and the model of Jermann (1998) that lacks such a symbolic solution - QZ-based numerical solutions miss the equity premium by up to several annualized percentage points for parameterizations that either match the chosen calibration targets or are nearby to the parameterization in the literature. While the numerical solution methods from the literature failed to give any indication of these potential errors, easily implementable backward-error metrics and condition numbers are shown to successfully warn of such potential inaccuracies. The analysis is then performed for a database of roughly 100 DSGE models from the literature and a large set of draws from the model of Smets and Wouters (2007). While economically relevant errors do not appear pervasive from these latter applications, accuracies that differ by several orders of magnitude persist.
A novel spatial autoregressive model for panel data is introduced, which incor-porates multilayer networks and accounts for time-varying relationships. Moreover, the proposed approach allows the structural variance to evolve smoothly over time and enables the analysis of shock propagation in terms of time-varying spillover effects.
The framework is applied to analyse the dynamics of international relationships among the G7 economies and their impact on stock market returns and volatilities. The findings underscore the substantial impact of cooperative interactions and highlight discernible disparities in network exposure across G7 nations, along with nuanced patterns in direct and indirect spillover effects.
In his speech at the conference „The SNB and its Watchers“, Otmar Issing, member of the ECB Governing Council from its start in 1998 until 2006, takes a look back at more than twenty years of the conference series „The ECB and Its Watchers“. In June 1999, Issing established this format together with Axel Weber, then Director of the Center for Financial Studies, to discuss the monetary policy strategy of the newly founded central bank with a broad circle of participants, that is academics, bank economists and members of the media on a „neutral ground“. At the annual conference, the ECB and its representatives would play an active role and engage in a lively exchange of view with the other participants. Over the years, Volker Wieland took over as organizer of the conference series, which also was adopted by other central banks. In his contribution at the second conference „The SNB and its Watchers“, Issing summarizes the experience gained from over twenty years of the ECB Watchers Conference.
Der Beitrag führt in das sozialpsychologische Phänomen des Gruppendenkens ein. Kennzeichen und Gegenstrategien werden anhand von Zeugenaussagen vor dem Wirecard-Untersuchungsausschuss am Beispiel des Aufsichtsrats illustriert. Normative Implikationen de lege ferenda schließen sich an. Sie betreffen unabhängige Mitglieder (auch auf der Arbeitnehmerbank), Direktinformationsrechte im Unternehmen (unter Einschluss von Hinweisgebern) und den Investorendialog (auch mit Leerverkäufern).