Open Access

The Tarim River basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin in China and one of the largest in all of Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate, with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim rivers solely depends on river water. This is linked to anthropogenic activities (e.g., agriculture) and natural and semi-natural ecosystems as both compete for water. The ongoing increase in water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes have formed the consortium SuMaRiO (Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River; http://www.sumario.de), which aims to create a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River basin. On the basis of the results from field studies and modeling approaches as well as from suggestions by the relevant regional stakeholders, a decision support tool (DST) will be implemented that will then assist stakeholders in balancing the competition for water, acknowledging the major external effects of water allocation to agriculture and to natural ecosystems. This consortium was formed in 2011 and is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. As the data collection phase was finished this year, the paper presented here brings together the results from the fields from the disciplines of climate modeling, cryology, hydrology, agricultural sciences, ecology, geoinformatics, and social sciences in order to present a comprehensive picture of the effects of different water availability schemes on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems along the Tarim River. The second objective is to present the project structure of the whole consortium, the current status of work (i.e., major new results and findings), explain the foundation of the decision support tool as a key product of this project, and conclude with application recommendations for the region. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary of the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades. From 1989 to 2011, agricultural area more than doubled: cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale to large-scale intensive farming. The ongoing increase in irrigated agricultural land leads to the increased threat of salinization and soil degradation caused by increased evapotranspiration. Aside from agricultural land, the major natural and semi-natural ecosystems are riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland, as well as urban and peri-urban vegetation. Within the SuMaRiO cluster, focus has been set on the Tugai forests, with Populus euphratica as the dominant tree species, because these forests belong to the most productive and species-rich natural ecosystems of the Tarim River basin. At sites close to the groundwater, the annual stem diameter increments of Populus euphratica correlated with the river runoffs of the previous year. However, the natural river dynamics cease along the downstream course and thus hamper the recruitment of Populus euphratica. A study on the willingness to pay for the conservation of the natural ecosystems was conducted to estimate the concern of the people in the region and in China's capital. These household surveys revealed that there is a considerable willingness to pay for conservation of the natural ecosystems, with mitigation of dust and sandstorms considered the most important ecosystem service. Stakeholder dialogues contributed to creating a scientific basis for a sustainable management in the future.

Rationale and Objectives: Bone non-union is a serious complication of distal radius fractures (DRF) that can result in functional limitations and persistent pain. However, no accepted method has been established to identify patients at risk of developing bone non-union yet. This study aimed to compare various CT-derived metrics for bone mineral density (BMD) assessment to identify predictive values for the development of bone non-union. Materials and Methods: CT images of 192 patients with DRFs who underwent unenhanced dual-energy CT (DECT) of the distal radius between 03/2016 and 12/2020 were retrospectively identified. Available follow-up imaging and medical health records were evaluated to determine the occurrence of bone non-union. DECT-based BMD, trabecular Hounsfield unit (HU), cortical HU and cortical thickness ratio were measured in normalized non-fractured segments of the distal radius. Results: Patients who developed bone non-union were significantly older (median age 72 years vs. 54 years) and had a significantly lower DECT-based BMD (median 68.1 mg/cm3 vs. 94.6 mg/cm3, p < 0.001). Other metrics (cortical thickness ratio, cortical HU, trabecular HU) showed no significant differences. ROC and PR curve analyses confirmed the highest diagnostic accuracy for DECT-based BMD with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 for the ROC curve and an AUC of 0.46 for the PR curve. In logistic regression models, DECT-based BMD was the sole metric significantly associated with bone non-union. Conclusion: DECT-derived metrics can accurately predict bone non-union in patients who sustained DRF. The diagnostic performance of DECT-based BMD is superior to that of HU-based metrics and cortical thickness ratio.

Objectives: To evaluate the predictive value of volumetric bone mineral density (BMD) assessment of the lumbar spine derived from phantomless dual-energy CT (DECT)-based volumetric material decomposition as an indicator for the 2-year occurrence risk of osteoporosis-associated fractures. Methods: L1 of 92 patients (46 men, 46 women; mean age, 64 years, range, 19–103 years) who had undergone third-generation dual-source DECT between 01/2016 and 12/2018 was retrospectively analyzed. For phantomless BMD assessment, dedicated DECT postprocessing software using material decomposition was applied. Digital files of all patients were sighted for 2 years following DECT to obtain the incidence of osteoporotic fractures. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate cut-off values and logistic regression models were used to determine associations of BMD, sex, and age with the occurrence of osteoporotic fractures. Results: A DECT-derived BMD cut-off of 93.70 mg/cm3 yielded 85.45% sensitivity and 89.19% specificity for the prediction to sustain one or more osteoporosis-associated fractures within 2 years after BMD measurement. DECT-derived BMD was significantly associated with the occurrence of new fractures (odds ratio of 0.8710, 95% CI, 0.091–0.9375, p < .001), indicating a protective effect of increased DECT-derived BMD values. Overall AUC was 0.9373 (CI, 0.867–0.977, p < .001) for the differentiation of patients who sustained osteoporosis-associated fractures within 2 years of BMD assessment. Conclusions: Retrospective DECT-based volumetric BMD assessment can accurately predict the 2-year risk to sustain an osteoporosis-associated fracture in at-risk patients without requiring a calibration phantom. Lower DECT-based BMD values are strongly associated with an increased risk to sustain fragility fractures. Key Points: Dual-energy CT–derived assessment of bone mineral density can identify patients at risk to sustain osteoporosis-associated fractures with a sensitivity of 85.45% and a specificity of 89.19%. The DECT-derived BMD threshold for identification of at-risk patients lies above the American College of Radiology (ACR) QCT guidelines for the identification of osteoporosis (93.70 mg/cm 3 vs 80 mg/cm 3 ).

The Tarim River Basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin of China and one of the largest in whole Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim River solely depends on river water. This applies for anthropogenic activities (e.g. agriculture) as well as for the natural ecosystems so that both compete for water. The on-going increase of water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes formed the consortium SuMaRiO (www.sumario.de), which aims at gaining a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River Basin. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary to the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades due to enhanced glacier melt. Alone from 1989 to 2011, the area under agriculture more than doubled. Thereby, cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale farming to large-scale intensive farming. The major natural ecosystems along the Aksu and Tarim River are riparian ecosystems: Riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland. Within the SuMaRiO Cluster the focus was laid on the Tugai forests, with Populus euphratica as dominant tree, because the most productive and species-rich natural ecosystems can be found among those forests. On sites with groundwater distance of less than 7.5 m the annual increments correlated with river runoffs of the previous year. But, the further downstream along the Tarim River, the more the natural river dynamics ceased, which impacts on the recruitment of Populus euphratica. Household surveys revealed that there is a considerable willingness to pay for conservation of those riparian forests with the mitigation of dust and sandstorms considered as the most important ecosystem service. This interdisciplinary project will result in a decision support tool (DST), build on the participation of regional stakeholders and models based on results and field experiments. This DST finally shall assist stakeholders in balancing the water competition acknowledging the major external effects of any water allocation.

Background: Dual-source dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) offers the potential for opportunistic osteoporosis screening by enabling phantomless bone mineral density (BMD) quantification. This study sought to assess the accuracy and precision of volumetric BMD measurement using dual-source DECT in comparison to quantitative CT (QCT). Methods: A validated spine phantom consisting of three lumbar vertebra equivalents with 50 (L1), 100 (L2), and 200 mg/cm3 (L3) calcium hydroxyapatite (HA) concentrations was scanned employing third-generation dual-source DECT and QCT. While BMD assessment based on QCT required an additional standardised bone density calibration phantom, the DECT technique operated by using a dedicated postprocessing software based on material decomposition without requiring calibration phantoms. Accuracy and precision of both modalities were compared by calculating measurement errors. In addition, correlation and agreement analyses were performed using Pearson correlation, linear regression, and Bland-Altman plots. Results: DECT-derived BMD values differed significantly from those obtained by QCT (p < 0.001) and were found to be closer to true HA concentrations. Relative measurement errors were significantly smaller for DECT in comparison to QCT (L1, 0.94% versus 9.68%; L2, 0.28% versus 5.74%; L3, 0.24% versus 3.67%, respectively). DECT demonstrated better BMD measurement repeatability compared to QCT (coefficient of variance < 4.29% for DECT, < 6.74% for QCT). Both methods correlated well to each other (r = 0.9993; 95% confidence interval 0.9984–0.9997; p < 0.001) and revealed substantial agreement in Bland-Altman plots. Conclusions: Phantomless dual-source DECT-based BMD assessment of lumbar vertebra equivalents using material decomposition showed higher diagnostic accuracy compared to QCT.