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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Serum GFAP for stroke diagnosis in regions with limited access to brain imaging (BE FAST India)
(2021)
Introduction: Despite a high burden of stroke, access to rapid brain imaging is limited in many middle- and low-income countries. Previous studies have described the astroglial protein GFAP (glial fibrillary acidic protein) as a biomarker of intracerebral hemorrhage. The aim of this study was to test the diagnostic accuracy of GFAP for ruling out intracranial hemorrhage in a prospective cohort of Indian stroke patients. Patients and methods: This study was conducted in an Indian tertiary hospital (Christian Medical College, Ludhiana). Patients with symptoms suggestive of acute stroke admitted within 12 h of symptom onset were enrolled. Blood samples were collected at hospital admission. Single Molecule Array technology was used for determining serum GFAP concentrations. Results: A total number of 155 patients were included (70 intracranial hemorrhage, 75 ischemic stroke, 10 stroke mimics). GFAP serum concentrations were elevated in intracranial hemorrhage patients compared to ischemic stroke patients [median (interquartile range) 2.36 µg/L (0.61–7.16) vs. 0.18 µg/L (0.11–0.38), p < 0.001]. Stroke mimics patients had a median GFAP serum level of 0.14 µg/L (0.09–0.26). GFAP values below the cut-off of 0.33 µg/L (area under the curve 0.871) ruled out intracranial hemorrhage with a negative predictive value of 89.7%, (at a sensitivity for detecting intracranial hemorrhage of 90.0%). Discussion: The high negative predictive value of a GFAP test system allows ruling out patients with intracranial hemorrhage. Conclusion: In settings where immediate brain imaging is not available, this would enable to implement secondary prevention (e.g., aspirin) in suspected ischemic stroke patients as soon as possible.