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Ökonomische Schocks haben beträchtliche Folgen für die Gesellschaft. Armutsrisiko, Arbeitslosigkeit, Bildungsmangel, Scheidungsrisiken, Vertrauenskrisen – politisches Krisenmanagement kann diese Folgen positiv beeinflussen und zu gesellschaftlicher Resilienz beitragen. Lassen sich daraus Schlüsse für die Folgen der Pandemie ziehen?
The article presents an analysis of the development of labour market risks in Germany in light of changing working poverty risks. Low hourly wages and part-time employment are identified as the main demand-side-related mechanisms for household poverty. Their measurement and development are discussed as well as their contribution to trends in working poverty risks. A rise in low wages, especially among part-time employed households, was decisive for the increase in working poverty risks in Germany by 45% between the end of the 1990s and the end of the 2000s. We therefore study these trends more closely in the multivariate analysis. The results show that while low wages are unequally distributed across occupations and industries, shifts in employment between sectors explain only a minor part of the change in low wages. However, they reveal a polarization of low-wage risks by skill-level and sector of employment, on the one hand, and full-time and part-time employees, on the other hand.
Unemployment and political trust across 24 Western democracies: evidence on a welfare state paradox
(2021)
Set against the backdrop of the Great Recession, the paper explores the interplay of unemployment experiences and political trust in the USA and 23 European countries between 2002 and 2017. Drawing on harmonized data from the European Social Survey and the General Social Survey, we confirm that citizens’ personal experiences of unemployment depress trust in democratic institutions in all countries. Using multilevel linear probability models, we show that the relationship between unemployment and political trust varies between countries, and that, paradoxically, the negative effect of unemployment on political trust is consistently stronger in the more generous welfare states. This result holds while controlling for a range of other household and country-level predictors, and even in mediation models that incorporate measures of households’ economic situation to explain the negative effect of unemployment on trust. As expected, country differences in the generosity of welfare states are reflected in the degree to which financial difficulties are mediating the relationship between unemployment and political trust. Overlaying economic deprivation, however, cultural mechanisms of stigmatization or status deprivation seem to create negative responses to unemployment experiences, and these render the effect of unemployment on political trust increasingly negative in objectively more generous welfare states.
