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Emissions of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), one of the strongest greenhouse gases on a per molecule basis, are targeted to be collectively reduced under the Kyoto Protocol. Because of its long atmospheric lifetime (estimated as 800 to 3200 years), the accumulation of SF6 in the atmosphere is a direct measure of its global emissions. Examination of our extended data set of globally distributed high-precision SF6 observations shows an increase in SF6 abundance from near zero in the 1970s to a global mean of 6.7 ppt by the end of 2008. In-depth evaluation of our long-term data records shows that the global source of SF6 decreased after 1995, most likely due to SF6 emission reductions in industrialised countries, but increased again after 1998. By subtracting those emissions reported by Annex I countries to the United Nations Framework Convention of Climatic Change (UNFCCC) from our observation-inferred SF6 source leaves a surprisingly large gap of more than 70–80% of non-reported SF6 emissions in the last decade. This suggests a strong under-estimation of emissions in Annex I countries and underlines the urgent need for independent atmospheric verification of greenhouse gases emissions accounting.
Atmospheric observation-based global SF6 emissions - comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates
(2009)
Emissions of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), one of the strongest greenhouse gases on a per molecule basis, are targeted to be collectively reduced under the Kyoto Protocol. Because of its long atmospheric lifetime (≈3000 years), the accumulation of SF6 in the atmosphere is a direct measure of its global emissions. Examination of our extended data set of globally distributed high-precision SF6 observations shows an increase in SF6 abundance from near zero in the 1970s to a global mean of 6.7 ppt by the end of 2008. In-depth evaluation of our long-term data records shows that the global source of SF6 decreased after 1995, most likely due to SF6 emission reductions in industrialised countries, but increased again after 1998. By subtracting those emissions reported by Annex I countries to the United Nations Framework Convention of Climatic Change (UNFCCC) from our observation-inferred SF6 source leaves a surprisingly large gap of more than 70–80% of non-reported SF6 emissions in the last decade.
We use observations of total particle number concentration at 36 worldwide sites and a global aerosol model to quantify the primary and secondary sources of particle number. We show that emissions of primary particles can reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of observed condensation nuclei (CN) (R2=0.51) but fail to explain the observed seasonal cycle at many sites (R2=0.1). The modeled CN concentration in the free troposphere is biased low (normalised mean bias, NMB=−88%) unless a secondary source of particles is included, for example from binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (NMB=−25%). Simulated CN concentrations in the continental boundary layer (BL) are also biased low (NMB=−74%) unless the number emission of anthropogenic primary particles is increased or an empirical BL particle formation mechanism based on sulfuric acid is used. We find that the seasonal CN cycle observed at continental BL sites is better simulated by including a BL particle formation mechanism (R2=0.3) than by increasing the number emission from primary anthropogenic sources (R2=0.18). Using sensitivity tests we derive optimum rate coefficients for this nucleation mechanism, which agree with values derived from detailed case studies at individual sites.
We synthesised observations of total particle number (CN) concentration from 36 sites around the world. We found that annual mean CN concentrations are typically 300–2000 cm -3 in the marine boundary layer and free troposphere (FT) and 1000–10 000 cm -3 in the continental boundary layer (BL). Many sites exhibit pronounced seasonality with summer time concentrations a factor of 2–10 greater than wintertime concentrations. We used these CN observations to evaluate primary and secondary sources of particle number in a global aerosol microphysics model. We found that emissions of primary particles can reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of observed CN concentration (R2=0.46) but fail to explain the observed seasonal cycle (R2=0.1). The modeled CN concentration in the FT was biased low (normalised mean bias, NMB=& -88%) unless a secondary source of particles was included, for example from binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (NMB= -25%). Simulated CN concentrations in the continental BL were also biased low (NMB= -74%) unless the number emission of anthropogenic primary particles was increased or a mechanism that results in particle formation in the BL was included. We ran a number of simulations where we included an empirical BL nucleation mechanism either using the activation-type mechanism (nucleation rate, J, proportional to gas-phase sulfuric acid concentration to the power one) or kinetic-type mechanism (J proportional to sulfuric acid to the power two) with a range of nucleation coefficients. We found that the seasonal CN cycle observed at continental BL sites was better simulated by BL particle formation (R2=0.3) than by increasing the number emission from primary anthropogenic sources (R2=0.18). The nucleation constants that resulted in best overall match between model and observed CN concentrations were consistent with values derived in previous studies from detailed case studies at individual sites. In our model, kinetic and activation-type nucleation parameterizations gave similar agreement with observed monthly mean CN concentrations.
Medulloblastoma is a rare brain malignancy. Patients after puberty are rare and bear an intermediate prognosis. Standard treatment consists of maximal resection plus radio-chemotherapy. Treatment toxicity is high and produces disabling long-term side effects. The sonic hedgehog (SHH) subgroup is highly overrepresented in the post-pubertal and adult population and can be targeted by smoothened (SMO) inhibitors. No practice-changing prospective randomized data have been generated in adults. The EORTC 1634-BTG/NOA-23 trial will randomize patients between standard-dose vs. reduced-dosed craniospinal radiotherapy and SHH-subgroup patients between the SMO inhibitor sonidegib (OdomzoTM, Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries, Inc., New York, USA) in addition to standard radio-chemotherapy vs. standard radio-chemotherapy alone to improve outcomes in view of decreased radiotherapy-related toxicity and increased efficacy. We will further investigate tumor tissue, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid as well as magnetic resonance imaging and radiotherapy plans to generate information that helps to further improve treatment outcomes. Given that treatment side effects typically occur late, long-term follow-up will monitor classic side effects of therapy, but also health-related quality of life, cognition, social and professional outcome, and reproduction and fertility. In summary, we will generate unprecedented data that will be translated into treatment changes in post-pubertal patients with medulloblastoma and will help to design future clinical trials.
