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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Elliptic flow from nuclear collisions is a hadronic observable sensitive to the early stages of system evolution. We report first results on elliptic flow of charged particles at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV using the STAR Time Projection Chamber at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The elliptic flow signal, v2, averaged over transverse momentum, reaches values of about 6% for relatively peripheral collisions and decreases for the more central collisions. This can be interpreted as the observation of a higher degree of thermalization than at lower collision energies. Pseudorapidity and transverse momentum dependence of elliptic flow are also presented.
Elliptic flow from nuclear collisions is a hadronic observable sensitive to the early stages of system evolution. We report first results on elliptic flow of charged particles at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN)=130 GeV using the STAR TPC at RHIC. The elliptic flow signal, v_2, averaged over transverse momentum, reaches values of about 6% for relatively peripheral collisions and decreases for the more central collisions. This can be interpreted as the observation of a higher degree of thermalization than at lower collision energies. Pseudorapidity and transverse momentum dependence of elliptic flow are also presented.
Background: The potential anti-cancer effects of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitors are being intensively studied. To date, however, few randomised clinical trials (RCT) have been performed to demonstrate anti-neoplastic effects in the pure oncology setting, and at present, no oncology endpoint-directed RCT has been reported in the high-malignancy risk population of immunosuppressed transplant recipients. Interestingly, since mTOR inhibitors have both immunosuppressive and anti-cancer effects, they have the potential to simultaneously protect against immunologic graft loss and tumour development. Therefore, we designed a prospective RCT to determine if the mTOR inhibitor sirolimus can improve hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-free patient survival in liver transplant (LT) recipients with a pre-transplant diagnosis of HCC. Methods: The study is an open-labelled, randomised, RCT comparing sirolimus-containing versus mTOR-inhibitor-free immunosuppression in patients undergoing LT for HCC. Patients with a histologically confirmed HCC diagnosis are randomised into 2 groups within 4-6 weeks after LT; one arm is maintained on a centre-specific mTOR-inhibitor-free immunosuppressive protocol and the second arm is maintained on a centre-specific mTOR-inhibitor-free immunosuppressive protocol for the first 4-6 weeks, at which time sirolimus is initiated. A 3-year recruitment phase is planned with a 5-year follow-up, testing HCC-free survival as the primary endpoint. Our hypothesis is that sirolimus use in the second arm of the study will improve HCC-free survival. The study is a non-commercial investigator-initiated trial (IIT) sponsored by the University Hospital Regensburg and is endorsed by the European Liver and Intestine Transplant Association; 13 countries within Europe, Canada and Australia are participating. Discussion: If our hypothesis is correct that mTOR inhibition can reduce HCC tumour growth while simultaneously providing immunosuppression to protect the liver allograft from rejection, patients should experience less post-transplant problems with HCC recurrence, and therefore could expect a longer and better quality of life. A positive outcome will likely change the standard of posttransplant immunosuppressive care for LT patients with HCC. (trial registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00355862) (EudraCT Number: 2005-005362-36)
Background: Despite novel therapeutic agents, most multiple myeloma (MM) patients eventually relapse. Two large phase III trials have shown significantly improved response rates (RR) of lenalidomide/dexamethasone compared with placebo/dexamethasone in relapsed MM (RMM) patients. These results have led to the approval of lenalidomide for RMM patients and lenalidomide/dexamethasone has since become a widely accepted second-line treatment. Furthermore, in RMM patients consolidation with high-dose chemotherapy plus autologous stem cell transplantation has been shown to significantly increase progression free survival (PFS) as compared to cyclophosphamide in a phase III trial. The randomized prospective ReLApsE trial is designed to evaluate PFS after lenalidomide/dexamethasone induction, high-dose chemotherapy consolidation plus autologous stem cell transplantation and lenalidomide maintenance compared with the well-established lenalidomide/dexamethasone regimen in RMM patients.
Methods/Design: ReLApsE is a randomized, open, multicenter phase III trial in a planned study population of 282 RMM patients. All patients receive three lenalidomide/dexamethasone cycles and - in absence of available stem cells from earlier harvesting - undergo peripheral blood stem cell mobilization and harvesting. Subsequently, patients in arm A continue on consecutive lenalidomide/dexamethasone cycles, patients in arm B undergo high dose chemotherapy plus autologous stem cell transplantation followed by lenalidomide maintenance until discontinuation criteria are met. Therapeutic response is evaluated after the 3rd (arm A + B) and the 5th lenalidomide/dexamethasone cycle (arm A) or 2 months after autologous stem cell transplantation (arm B) and every 3 months thereafter (arm A + B). After finishing the study treatment, patients are followed up for survival and subsequent myeloma therapies. The expected trial duration is 6.25 years from first patient in to last patient out. The primary endpoint is PFS, secondary endpoints include overall survival (OS), RR, time to best response and the influence of early versus late salvage high dose chemotherapy plus autologous stem cell transplantation on OS.
Discussion: This phase III trial is designed to evaluate whether high dose chemotherapy plus autologous stem cell transplantation and lenalidomide maintenance after lenalidomide/dexamethasone induction improves PFS compared with the well-established continued lenalidomide/dexamethasone regimen in RMM patients. Trial registration: ISRCTN16345835 (date of registration 2010-08-24).
Raney nickel, a highly reactive and air-sensitive solid, if prepared and investigated under oxygen-free conditions, exhibits interesting catalytic properties. Using photoelectron spectroscopy for real-time gas analysis in a flow reactor, the following results are obtained with alkyl and acylhalides: Dehydrohalogenation temperatures are lowered relative to thermal HHal elimination up to 350 K. Monochloro and bromo propanes and butenes yield propene and butadiene, respectively. 1,1-Dichloro ethane or 1,1-dibromo propane only split off one HHal and form chloroethene or 1-bromopropene-2. HCl elimination from 2-methyl propionic acid chloride, expectedly, produces dimethyl ketene. Most interesting, however, is the ring opening of monobromo cyclobutane to 1-bromo-butene-3, observed already at room temperature, which strongly suggests the intermediate formation of a chemisorbed surface carbene at Raney nickel. The formation of hexadiene-1,5 as a by-product in the HCl elimination of 1-chloropropane, i. e. a surface carbene dimer, indicates their presence also in other dehydrohalogenations heterogeneously catalyzed by Raney nickel.
Raney nickel, a highly reactive and air-sensitive solid, if prepared and investigated under oxygen-free conditions, exhibits interesting catalytic properties. Using photoelectron spectroscopy for real-time gas analysis in a flow reactor, the following results are obtained with alkyl and acylhalides: Dehydrohalogenation temperatures are lowered relative to thermal HHal elimination up to 350 K. Monochloro and bromo propanes and butenes yield propene and butadiene, respectively. 1,1-Dichloro ethane or 1,1-dibromo propane only split off one HHal and form chloroethene or l-brom opropene-2. HCl elim ination from 2-methyl propionic acid chloride, expectedly, produces dimethyl ketene. Most interesting, how ever, is the ring opening of monobromo cyclobutane to 1-brom o-butene-3, observed already at room temperature, which strongly suggests the intermediate formation of a chem isorbed surface carbene at Raney nickel. The formation of hexadiene-1,5 as a by-product in the HCl elim ination of 1-chloropropane, i.e. a surface carbene dimer, indicates their presence also in other dehydrohalogenations heterogeneously catalyzed by Raney nickel.
Background: Simultaneous pancreas kidney transplantation (SPK), pancreas transplantation alone (PTA) or pancreas transplantation after kidney (PAK) are the only curative treatment options for patients with type 1 (juvenile) diabetes mellitus with or without impaired renal function. Unfortunately, transplant waiting lists for this indication are increasing because the current organ acceptability criteria are restrictive; morbidity and mortality significantly increase with time on the waitlist. Currently, only pancreas organs from donors younger than 50 years of age and with a body mass index (BMI) less than 30 are allocated for transplantation in the Eurotransplant (ET) area. To address this issue we designed a study to increase the available donor pool for these patients.
Methods/Design: This study is a prospective, multicenter (20 German centers), single blinded, non-randomized, two armed trial comparing outcome after SPK, PTA or PAK between organs with the currently allowed donor criteria versus selected organs from donors with extended criteria. Extended donor criteria are defined as organs procured from donors with a BMI of 30 to 34 or a donor age between 50 and 60 years. Immunosuppression is generally standardized using induction therapy with Myfortic, tacrolimus and low dose steroids. In principle, all patients on the waitlist for primary SPK, PTA or PAK are eligible for the clinical trial when they consent to possibly receiving an extended donor criteria organ. Patients receiving an organ meeting the current standard criteria for pancreas allocation (control arm) are compared to those receiving extended criteria organ (study arm); patients are blinded for a follow-up period of one year. The combined primary endpoint is survival of the pancreas allograft and pancreas allograft function after three months, as an early relevant outcome parameter for pancreas transplantation.
Discussion: The EXPAND Study has been initiated to investigate the hypothesis that locally allocated extended criteria organs can be transplanted with similar results compared to the currently allowed standard ET organ allocation. If our study shows a favorable comparison to standard organ allocation criteria, the morbidity and mortality for patients waiting for transplantation could be reduced in the future.
Trial registered at: NCT01384006
Children’s and adolescents’ lives drastically changed during COVID lockdowns worldwide. To compare accident- and injury-related admissions to pediatric intensive care units (PICU) during the first German COVID lockdown with previous years, we conducted a retrospective multicenter study among 37 PICUs (21.5% of German PICU capacities). A total of 1444 admissions after accidents or injuries during the first lockdown period and matched periods of 2017–2019 were reported and standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) were calculated. Total PICU admissions due to accidents/injuries declined from an average of 366 to 346 (SMR 0.95 (CI 0.85–1.05)). Admissions with trauma increased from 196 to 212 (1.07 (0.93–1.23). Traffic accidents and school/kindergarten accidents decreased (0.77 (0.57–1.02 and 0.26 (0.05–0.75)), whereas household and leisure accidents increased (1.33 (1.06–1.66) and 1.34 (1.06–1.67)). Less neurosurgeries and more visceral surgeries were performed (0.69 (0.38–1.16) and 2.09 (1.19–3.39)). Non-accidental non-suicidal injuries declined (0.73 (0.42–1.17)). Suicide attempts increased in adolescent boys (1.38 (0.51–3.02)), but decreased in adolescent girls (0.56 (0.32–0.79)). In summary, changed trauma mechanisms entailed different surgeries compared to previous years. We found no evidence for an increase in child abuse cases requiring intensive care. The increase in suicide attempts among boys demands investigation.
Background: Community acquired viruses (CRVs) may cause severe disease in cancer patients. Thus, efforts should be made to diagnose CRV rapidly and manage CRV infections accordingly.
Methods: A panel of 18 clinicians from the Infectious Diseases Working Party of the German Society for Haematology and Medical Oncology have convened to assess the available literature and provide recommendations on the management of CRV infections including influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus and adenovirus.
Results: CRV infections in cancer patients may lead to pneumonia in approximately 30% of the cases, with an associated mortality of around 25%. For diagnosis of a CRV infection, combined nasal/throat swabs or washes/aspirates give the best results and nucleic acid amplification based-techniques (NAT) should be used to detect the pathogen. Hand hygiene, contact isolation and face masks have been shown to be of benefit as general infection management. Causal treatment can be given for influenza, using a neuraminidase inhibitor, and respiratory syncytial virus, using ribavirin in addition to intravenous immunoglobulins. Ribavirin has also been used to treat parainfluenza virus and human metapneumovirus, but data are inconclusive in this setting. Cidofovir is used to treat adenovirus pneumonitis.
Conclusions: CRV infections may pose a vital threat to patients with underlying malignancy. This guideline provides information on diagnosis and treatment to improve the outcome.
Background: Despite improvements in liver surgery over the past decades, hemostasis during hepatic resections remains challenging. This multicenter randomized study compares the hemostatic effect of a collagen hemostat vs. a carrier-bound fibrin sealant after hepatic resection.
Methods: Patients scheduled for elective liver resection were randomized intraoperatively to receive either the collagen hemostat (COLL) or the carrier-bound fibrin sealant (CBFS) for secondary hemostasis. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients with hemostasis after 3 min. Secondary parameters were the proportions of patients with hemostasis after 5 and 10 min, the total time to hemostasis, and the complication rates during a 3 months follow-up period.
Results: A total of 128 patients were included. In the COLL group, 53 out of 61 patients (86.9 %) achieved complete hemostasis within 3 min after application of the hemostat compared to 52 out of 65 patients (80.0 %) in the CBFS group. The 95 % confidence interval for this difference [−6.0 %, 19.8 %] does not include the lower noninferiority margin (−10 %). Thus, the COLL treatment can be regarded as noninferior to the comparator. The proportions of patients with hemostasis after 3, 5, and 10 min were not significantly different between the two study arms. Postoperative mortality and morbidity were similar in both treatment groups.
Conclusion: The collagen hemostat is as effective as the carrier-bound fibrin sealant in obtaining secondary hemostasis during liver resection with a comparable complication rate.
Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.