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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Data from the first physics run at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV, have been analyzed by the STAR Collaboration using three-pion correlations with charged pions to study whether pions are emitted independently at freeze-out. We have made a high-statistics measurement of the three-pion correlation function and calculated the normalized three-particle correlator to obtain a quantitative measurement of the degree of chaoticity of the pion source. It is found that the degree of chaoticity seems to increase with increasing particle multiplicity.
Background: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have considerable cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular risk and related to left ventricular remodeling and heart failure. Myocardial fibrosis is the pathophysiological hallmark of the failing heart.
Methods and results: An observational study of consecutive CKD patients (n = 276) undergoing comprehensive clinical cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging. The relationship between aortic stiffness, myocardial fibrosis, left ventricular remodeling and the severity of chronic kidney disease was examined. Compared to age-gender matched controls with no known kidney disease (n = 242), CKD patients had considerably higher myocardial native T1 and central aortic PWV (p ≪ 0.001), as well as abnormal diastolic relaxation by E/e′ (mean) by echocardiography (p ≪ 0.01). A third of all patients had LGE, with similar proportions for the presence and the (ischaemic and non-ischaemic) pattern between the groups. PWV was strongly associated with and age, NT-proBNP and native T1 in both groups, but not with LGE presence or type; the associations were amplified in severe CKD stages. In multivariate analyses, PWV was independently associated with native T1 in both groups (p ≪ 0.01) with near two-fold increase in adjusted R2 in the presence of CKD (native T1 (10 ms) R2, B(95%CI) CKD vs. non-CKD 0.28, 0.2(0.15–0.25) vs. 0.18, 0.1(0.06–0.15), p ≪ 0.01).
Conclusions: Aortic stiffness and interstitial myocardial fibrosis are interrelated; this association is accelerated in the presence of CKD, but independent of LGE. Our findings reiterate the significant contribution of CKD-related factors to the pathophysiology of cardiovascular remodeling.
Invasive alien species (IAS) are a major global challenge requiring urgent action, and the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity (2011–2020) of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) includes a target on the issue. Meeting the target requires an understanding of invasion patterns. However, national or regional analyses of invasions are limited to developed countries. We identified 488 IAS in China’s terrestrial habitats, inland waters and marine ecosystems based on available literature and field work, including 171 animals, 265 plants, 26 fungi, 3 protists, 11 procaryots, and 12 viruses. Terrestrial plants account for 51.6% of the total number of IAS, and terrestrial invertebrates (104 species) for 21.3%. Of the total numbers, 67.9% of plant IAS and 34.8% of animal IAS were introduced intentionally. All other taxa were introduced unintentionally despite very few animal and plant species that invaded naturally. In terms of habitats, 64.3% of IAS occur on farmlands, 13.9% in forests, 8.4% in marine ecosystems, 7.3% in inland waters, and 6.1% in residential areas. Half of all IAS (51.1%) originate from North and South America, 18.3% from Europe, 17.3% from Asia not including China, 7.2% from Africa, 1.8% from Oceania, and the origin of the remaining 4.3% IAS is unknown. The distribution of IAS can be divided into three zones. Most IAS are distributed in coastal provinces and the Yunnan province; provinces in Middle China have fewer IAS, and most provinces in West China have the least number of IAS. Sites where IAS were first detected are mainly distributed in the coastal region, the Yunnan Province and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. The number of newly emerged IAS has been increasing since 1850. The cumulative number of firstly detected IAS grew exponentially.
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of cardiac morbidity and mortality in the entire world population. Heart failure (HF) is the fastest growing cardiac diagnosis, with an annual incidence of 10 cases per 1000 people in individuals older than 65 [1]. This is partly a reflection of an aging population and success of treatment of acute coronary syndromes with reduced premature mortality due to ischaemic heart disease (IHD), as well as increasing ability to recognise non-ischaemic - intrinsic myocardial processes- due to advances in genetics and imaging. The conventional imaging predictors of outcome in CVD patients primarily include left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR). LVEF represents the main universal, as well as the multimodality biomarker of risk stratification. ...
Myocardial fibrosis and inflammation by CMR predict cardiovascular outcome in people living with HIV
(2021)
Objectives_: The goal of this study was to examine prognostic relationships between cardiac imaging measures and cardiovascular outcome in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH) on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).
Background: PLWH have a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease and heart failure (HF) compared with the noninfected population. The pathophysiological drivers of myocardial dysfunction and worse cardiovascular outcome in HIV remain poorly understood.
Methods: This prospective observational longitudinal study included consecutive PLWH on long-term HAART undergoing cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) examination for assessment of myocardial volumes and function, T1 and T2 mapping, perfusion, and scar. Time-to-event analysis was performed from the index CMR examination to the first single event per patient. The primary endpoint was an adjudicated adverse cardiovascular event (cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal acute coronary syndrome, an appropriate device discharge, or a documented HF hospitalization).
Results: A total of 156 participants (62% male; age [median, interquartile range]: 50 years [42 to 57 years]) were included. During a median follow-up of 13 months (9 to 19 months), 24 events were observed (4 HF deaths, 1 sudden cardiac death, 2 nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, 1 appropriate device discharge, and 16 HF hospitalizations). Patients with events had higher native T1 (median [interquartile range]: 1,149 ms [1,115 to 1,163 ms] vs. 1,110 ms [1,075 to 1,138 ms]); native T2 (40 ms [38 to 41 ms] vs. 37 ms [36 to 39 ms]); left ventricular (LV) mass index (65 g/m2 [49 to 77 g/m2] vs. 57 g/m2 [49 to 64 g/m2]), and N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (109 pg/l [25 to 337 pg/l] vs. 48 pg/l [23 to 82 pg/l]) (all p < 0.05). In multivariable analyses, native T1 was independently predictive of adverse events (chi-square test, 15.9; p < 0.001; native T1 [10 ms] hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.20 [1.08 to 1.33]; p = 0.001), followed by a model that also included LV mass (chi-square test, 17.1; p < 0.001). Traditional cardiovascular risk scores were not predictive of the adverse events.
Conclusions: Our findings reveal important prognostic associations of diffuse myocardial fibrosis and LV remodeling in PLWH. These results may support development of personalized approaches to screening and early intervention to reduce the burden of HF in PLWH (International T1 Multicenter Outcome Study; NCT03749343).
Background: High sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and NT-pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro BNP) are often elevated in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and associated with both cardiovascular remodeling and outcome. Relationship between these biomarkers and quantitative imaging measures of myocardial fibrosis and edema by T1 and T2 mapping remains unknown. Methods: Consecutive patients with established CKD and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 59 ml/min/1.73 m2 (n = 276) were compared to age/sex matched patients with eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (n = 242) and healthy controls (n = 38). Comprehensive cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) with native T1 and T2 mapping, myocardial ischemia and scar imaging was performed with venous sampling immediately prior to CMR. Results: Patients with CKD showed significant cardiac remodeling in comparison with both healthy individuals and non-CKD patients, including a stepwise increase of native T1 and T2 (p < 0.001 between all CKD stages). Native T1 and T2 were the sole imaging markers independently associated with worsening CKD in patients [B = 0.125 (95% CI 0.022–0.235) and B = 0.272 (95% CI 0.164–0.374) with p = 0.019 and < 0.001 respectively]. At univariable analysis, both hs-cTnT and NT-pro BNP significantly correlated with native T1 and T2 in groups with eGFR 30–59 ml/min/1.73 m2 and eGFR < 29 ml/min/1.73 m2 groups, with associations being stronger at lower eGFR (NT-pro BNP (log transformed, lg10): native T1 r = 0.43 and r = 0.57, native T2 r = 0.39 and r = 0.48 respectively; log-transformed hs-cTnT(lg10): native T1 r = 0.23 and r = 0.43, native T2 r = 0.38 and r = 0.58 respectively, p < 0.001 for all, p < 0.05 for interaction). On multivariable analyses, we found independent associations of native T1 with NT-pro BNP [(B = 0.308 (95% CI 0.129–0.407), p < 0.001 and B = 0.334 (95% CI 0.154–0.660), p = 0.002 for eGFR 30–59 ml/min/1.73 m2 and eGFR < 29 ml/min/1.73 m2, respectively] and of T2 with hs-cTnT [B = 0.417 (95% CI 0.219–0.650), p < 0.001 for eGFR < 29 ml/min/1.73 m2]. Conclusions: We demonstrate independent associations between cardiac biomarkers with imaging markers of interstitial expansion, which are CKD-group specific. Our findings indicate the role of diffuse non-ischemic tissue processes, including excess of myocardial fluid in addition to diffuse fibrosis in CKD-related adverse remodeling.