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The ongoing debate on deforestation in the tropics usually points out agriculture and logging as the main causes. The two activities are often linked and the trails created by logging com-panies with their heavy machines are afterwards used by farmers to penetrate deep into the forest and cultivate. Shifting cultivation is a widespread agricultural practice in the tropics and its sustainability is often a matter of controversy. It is necessary to investigate forest recovery after shifting cultivation, analyze its succession stages for comparison with regeneration after natural disturbance, and evaluate its role for discussing the hazards of deforestation.
Savanna regions in West Africa are valuable cultural landscapes and provide a wide range of ecosystem services for human well-being and are frequently affected by human-induced disturbances. Aside from agricultural activities (crop production and animal husbandry), the harvesting of timber and non-timber forest products is crucial for household income, alimentation and medicinal purposes. Most indigenous woody species have undergone increasing anthropogenic pressure as social and economic conditions have changed dramatically during recent decades, resulting in further habitat fragmentation and increased disturbance severity. Human land use activities influence growth conditions for plants by altering various abiotic factors, such as light, nutrient availability and water supply. They are found to alter demographic parameters (e.g., germination, seedling and sapling growth, survival and mortality rates) of woody plant individuals and alter the structure and stability of populations. The degree of anthropogenic disturbance varies between land-cover types, distance to settlements, and protection status. In the context of land-use change, there is an urgent need to better understand and evaluate the impact of land-use on savanna vegetation, particularly on the population biology of common savanna woody species. A major conclusion to be drawn from this thesis is that land use influences savanna vegetation in a complex way and does not necessarily lead to a decline or loss of tree populations and species. It is rather that in a constantly changing landscape, as a result of human-induced disturbances, populations of ubiquitous and some common species can be stable over time. The abundance of some species tends to decline consistently, whereas others benefit from human disturbance. Moreover, the study provides an insight into the structure and dynamics of common, dominant and less dominant savanna woody plants in a communal and a protected area. There is a need for further basic studies to assess the impact of land use and ecological preferences of all species, including repeated density studies that look at survivorship and transition probabilities over a number of seasons as well as longterm in-situ experiments in settlement areas in order to better understand woody plant populations in settlement areas as the few remaining semi-natural sites are likely to decrease in the future. A challenge will be the development of strategies to protect species within a landscape under cultivation.
Global climate change and land use change will not only alter entire ecosystems and biodiversity patterns, but also the supply of ecosystem services. A better understanding of the consequences is particularly needed in under-investigated regions, such as West Africa. The projected environmental changes suggest negative impacts on nature, thus representing a threat to the human well-being. However, many effects caused by climate and land use change are poorly understood so far. Thus, the main objective of this thesis was to investigate the impact of climate and land use change on vegetation patterns, plant diversity and important provisioning ecosystem services in West Africa. The three different aspects are separately explored and build the chapters of this thesis. The findings help to improve our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecosystems and human well-being. In the first study, the main objectives were to model trends and the extent of future biome shifts in West Africa that may occur by 2050. Also, I modelled a trend in West African tree cover change, while accounting for human impact. Additionally, uncertainty in future climate projections was evaluated to identify regions with reliable trends and regions where the impacts remain uncertain. The potential future spatial distributions of desert, grassland, savanna, deciduous and evergreen forest were modelled in West Africa, using six bioclimatic models. Future tree cover change was analysed with generalized additive models (GAMs). I used climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) and included human population density and fire intensity to model tree cover. Consensus projections were derived via weighted averages to: 1) reduce inter-model variability, and 2) describe trends extracted from different GCM projections. The strongest predicted effect of climate change was on desert and grasslands, where the bioclimatic envelope of grassland is projected to expand into the Sahara desert by an area of 2 million km2. While savannas are predicted to contract in the south (by 54 ± 22 × 104 km2), deciduous and evergreen forest biomes are expected to expand (64 ± 13 × 104 km2 and 77 ± 26 × 104 km2). However, uncertainty due to different GCMs was particularly high for the grassland and the evergreen forest biome shift. Increasing tree cover (1–10%) was projected for large parts of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, but a decrease was projected for coastal areas (1–20%). Furthermore, human impact negatively affected tree cover and partly changed the direction of the projected climate-driven tendency from increase to decrease. Considering climate change alone, the model results of potential vegetation (biomes) showed a ‘greening’ trend by 2050. However, the modelled effects of human impact suggest future forest degradation. Thus, it is essential to consider both climate change and human impact in order to generate realistic future projections on woody cover. The second study focused on the impact and the interplay of future (2050) climate and land use change on the plant diversity of the West African country Burkina Faso. Synergistic forecasts for this country are lacking to date. Burkina Faso covers a broad bioclimatic gradient which causes a similar gradient in plant diversity. Thus, the impact of climate and land use change can be investigated in regions with different levels of species richness. The LandSHIFT model from the Centre of Environmental System research CESR (Kassel, Germany) was adapted for this study to derive novel regional, spatially explicit future (2050) land use simulations for Burkina Faso. Additionally, the simulations include different assumptions on the technological developments in the agricultural sector. Oneclass support vector machines (SVMs), a machine learning method, were performed with these land use simulations together with current and future (2050) climate projections at a 0.1° resolution (cell: ~ 10 × 10 km). The modelling results showed that the flora of Burkina Faso will be primarily negatively impacted by future climate and land use changes. The species richness will be significantly reduced by 2050 (P < 0.001, paired Wilcoxon signed-rank test). However, contrasting latitudinal patterns were found. Although climate change is predicted to cause species loss in the more humid regions in Southern Burkina Faso (~ 200 species per cell), the model projects an increase of species richness in the Sahel. However, land use change is expected to suppress this increase to the current species diversity level, depending on the technological developments. Climate change is a more important threat to the plant diversity than land use change under the assumption of technological stagnation in the agricultural sector. Overall, the study highlights the impact and interplay of future climate and land use change on plant diversity along a broad bioclimatic gradient in West Africa.Furthermore, the results suggest that plant diversity in dry and humid regions of the tropics might generally respond differently to climate and land use change. This pattern has not been detected by global studies so far. Several of the plant species in West Africa significantly contribute to the livelihoods of the population. The plants provide so-called non-timber forest products (NTFPs), which are important provisioning ecosystem services. However, these services are also threatened by environmental change. Thus, the third study aimed at developing a novel approach to assess the impacts of climate and land use change on the economic benefits derived from NTFPs. This project was carried out in cooperation with Katja Heubach (BiK-F) who provided data on household economics. These data include 60 interviews that were conducted in Northern Benin on annual quantities and revenues of collected NTFPs from the three most important savanna tree species: Adansonia digitata, Parkia biglobosa and Vitellaria paradoxa. The current market prices of the NTFPs were derived from respective local markets. To assess current and future (2050) occurrence probabilities of the three species, I calibrated niche-based models with climate data (from Miroc3.2medres) and land use data (LandSHIFT) at a 0.1° resolution (cell: ~ 10 × 10 km). Land use simulations were taken from the previous study on plant diversity. Three different niche-based models were used: 1) generalized additive models (regression method), 2) generalized boosting models (machine learning method), and 3) flexible discriminant analysis (classification method). The three model simulations were averaged (ensemble forecasting) to increase the robustness of the predictions. To assess future economic gains and losses, respectively, the modelled species’ occurrence probabilities were linked with the spatially assigned monetary values. Highest current annual benefits are obtained from V. paradoxa (54,111 ± 28,126 US$/cell), followed by P. biglobosa (32,246 ± 16,526 US$/cell) and A. digitata (9,514 ± 6,243 US$/cell). However, in the prediction large areas will lose up to 50% of their current economic value by 2050. Vitellaria paradoxa and Parkia biglobosa, which currently reveal the highest economic benefits, are heavily affected. Adansonia digitata is negatively affected less strongly by environmental change and might regionally even supply increasing economic benefits, in particular in the west and east of the investigation area. We conclude that adaptive strategies are needed to create alternative income opportunities, in particular for women that are responsible for collecting the NTFPs. The findings provide a benchmark for local policy-makers to economically compare different land use options and adjust existing management strategies for the near future. Overall, this thesis improves our understanding of the impacts of climate and land use changes on West African vegetation patterns, plant diversity and provisioning ecosystem services. Climate change had spatially varying impacts (positive and negative effects) on the vegetation cover and plant diversity, while predominantly negative effects resulted from human pressure. Regional contrasting impacts of environmental change were also found considering the provisioning ecosystem services.
The impacts of human activities, notably the conversion of tropical forests into farmland habitat, has profound impacts on biological diversity and ecosystem functions (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). It is widely debated to what extent human modified landscapes can maintain tropical biodiversity and their ecosystem functionality (e.g. Waltert et al. 2004, Sekercioglu et al. 2007). In this thesis, I have used a huge and temporarily replicated dataset to assess the value of different habitat types differing in land-use intensities for bird communities in tropical East Africa. I investigated bird abundance and species richness along a forest-farmland habitat gradient and assessed spatial and temporal fluctuations of bird assemblages and their food resources.
I could show that forest and farmland habitats harbor distinct bird communities. Moreover, the protection of natural forests merits the highest priority for conserving the high diversity of forest-dependent bird species. My study, however, also shows that farmland habitats in the proximity of natural forest can support a high bird diversity. High bird diversity in tropical farmlands depends on a high structural complexity, such as in small-scale subsistence farmlands. From my findings, I conclude that the conversion of forest to farmland leads to substantial losses in bird diversity, in particular in specialized feeding guilds such as insectivores, while the conversion of structurally heterogeneous subsistence farmlands to sugarcane plantation causes erosion of bird diversity in agricultural ecosystems. Both findings are important for conservation planning in times when tropical forests and agroecosystems are under constantly high pressure due to increasing human population numbers and global demands for biofuel crops (Gibbs et al. 2008). From an ecosystem function perspective, my study demonstrates the potential of agroecosystems in supporting important ecosystem functions, such as seed dispersal by frugivorous birds and pest control by insectivorous birds. I could show that bird abundances in both frugivorous and insectivorous guilds were strongly predicted by their respective food resources, implying that seasonal shifts in fruit and invertebrate abundance at Kakamega forest and surrounding farmlands affect community dynamics and appear to influence local movement patterns of birds. The most interesting finding of this study was that feeding guilds responded idiosyncratically to resource fluctuations. Frugivore richness fluctuated asynchronously in forest and farmland habitats, suggesting foraging movements and fruit tracking across habitat borders. In contrast, I found that insectivores fluctuated synchronously in the two habitat types, suggesting a lack of inter-habitat movements. I therefore predict that insectivorous bird communities in this forest-farmland landscape may be more susceptible to the combined effects of land-use and climate change, due to their narrow habitat niche and limited capacity to track their resources.
The fact that a number of bird species regularly moved across the landscape mosaic in my study system implies that birds are able to provide long-distance seed dispersal across habitat borders. Thus, birds may enhance forest regeneration in human-modified landscapes, such as those in most parts of tropical Africa, given that forest remnants are protected within an agricultural habitat matrix. In order to effectively conserve tropical biodiversity within forest-farmland mosaics, this study advocates for conservation strategies that go beyond forest protection and explicitly integrate farmlands into forest management plans and policies. This should emphasize the retention of keystone habitat elements within tropical farmland landscapes, such as indigenous trees, forest galleries and hedgerows, whose presence enhance species diversity. Such grassroot-level approaches can be operationalized for instance through providing incentives to farmers to maintain their traditional subsistence land-use practices and through community-based livelihood projects aiming at enhancing local habitat heterogeneity and inter-habitat connectivity.
For millennia, rural West African communities living in or adjacent of savanna ecosystems have been collecting components of local plant species (e.g. fruits, leaves, bark) in order to fulfil essential household subsistence needs (alimentation, medical care, energy demand etc.), to generate cash income and to overcome times of (financial) crisis. Thus, these non-timber forest products (NTFPs) make a considerable contribution to the well-being of local households. However, climate and land use change severely impact West African savanna ecosystems and, consequently, the safe-guarding of dependent rural livelihoods. The conversion of savanna area into cultivated land for subsistence farming owing to the ongoing population growth, as well as the progressive promotion of cash crops (e.g. cotton) is ever-increasing. As a consequence, present land-use management in West Africa has to cope with serious trade-offs. Within this decision-making NTFPs have been constantly understated due to a lack of appropriate economic figures to use within common cost-benefit analysis, and, thus, have been frequently outcompeted by seemingly more profitable land-use options. Therefore, it is crucial to provide appropriate economic data for NTFPs in order to create positive incentives for both decision-makers and NTFP beneficiaries to conserve NTFP-providing trees. The key finding of this analysis is that income from NTFPs accounts for 39 % on average of an annual total household income in Northern Benin, representing the second largest income share next to crop income and proving the respective households to be economically heavily dependent on NTFPs. Thereby, socio-economic characteristics of NTFP users tremendously shape their preferences for woody species. Particularly ethnicity has a major impact on the species used and the economic return obtained by them. Moreover, the study investigated the impacts of climate and land use change on the economic benefits derived from the three economically most important tree species in the region Vitellaria paradoxa, Parkia biglobosa and Adansonia digitata in 2050: Environmental changes will have primarily negative effects on the economic returns from all the three species. At large, the study underpins the economic relevance of NTFPs for rural communities in West African savannas and, consequently, the necessity to appropriately sustain them in order to safe-guard local livelihoods. Providing key figures on the current and future economic benefits obtained from NTFPs can augment common cost-benefit analysis, and, delivering detailed information about peoples’ use preferences for local species, this study clearly contributes to improve the basis of decision-making with reference to local land-use policies.