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In einer alternden Gesellschaft stehen Politik und Gesellschaft vor der Herausforderung, sowohl die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung nachhaltig zu sichern als auch private Vorsorge zu fördern. Die Einführung einer Kapitalmarktkomponente in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung sowie Reformen der privaten Altersvorsorge wurden von der Ampelregierung zwar vorangetrieben, jedoch nicht legislativ umgesetzt. Auch finanzielle Bildung spielt eine zentrale Rolle für die individuelle Altersvorsorge und wirtschaftliche Stabilität. Hierhaben die Regierungsinitiativen ebenfalls noch nicht zu einer umfassenden nationalen Strategie, wie sie von der OECD empfohlen wird, geführt. Politische Uneinigkeit und eine in Teilen fragmentierte Debatte lassen befürchten, dass die kommende Bundesregierung die Themen zu zögerlich angehen könnte. Der Beitrag analysiert die bisherigen politischen Maßnahmen, vergleicht Vorschläge und internationale Modelle und gibt Handlungsempfehlungen für die Umsetzung rentenpolitischer Reformen und einer Finanzbildungsstrategie. Entscheidend ist dabei, die Vorarbeit zu nutzen und schnell in die Gesetzgebung einzusteigen.
We examine how cybercrime impacts victims' risk-taking and returns. The results from our difference-indifferences analysis of a sample of victim and matched non-victim investors on the Ethereum blockchain are in line with prospect theory and suggests that victims increase their long-term total risk-taking after losing part of their wealth, leading to lower risk-adjusted returns in the post-cybercrime period. Victims' long-term total risk-taking increases because they increase diversifiable risk due to victims' post-cybercrime withdrawal from altcoins. At the same time, the reduction in risk-adjusted returns correlates with increased trading activity and churn, due plausibly to managing cybercrime exposure. In the cross-section of Ethereum addresses, we show that the most affluent victims take a systematic approach to restore their pre-cybercrime wealth level, while the least affluent victims turn into gamblers. Finally, a parsimonious forensic model explains a good part of the addresses' probability of being involved in cybercrime, on both the victim and the cybercriminal side.
We provide evidence for a new propagation mechanism of wealth inequality and mobility. Using unique administrative data and a quasifield experiment of exogenous assignment, we find that educated entrants, faced with greater local wealth inequality and salient cases of wealth mobility, take financial, real, and self-employment risks and reach higher positions in the wealth distribution, while the less educated do not. This is driven by poorer communities with more salient cases of wealth mobility, consistent with peer exposure rather than supply side effects. We find no evidence for other channels, such as obtaining higher-paying more secure jobs, relocating, or reducing debt.
Using data on all patent cases in front of German courts between 2010 and 2015 we find that plaintiffs in patent infringement cases mainly chose the venue where to sue by the speed with which courts dispose of their cases. We also find that quality – measured, both, as the fraction of cases challenged in the next instance and the ratio of successful appeals in the year before filing – has an impact on court choice by patent plaintiffs. We can further show that plaintiffs merely shop between three German courts, namely Duesseldorf, Munich and Mannheim. Moreover, we find that once one of these three courts introduces an additional panel of three judges, thereby working faster, the other two courts increase their working speed, too. This indicates that, indeed, courts actively compete for cases. However, we do not find evidence for courts reacting to a competitor’s increase in speed by deciding in the plaintiffs favor more often or by deteriorating quality of decisions.
This paper explores how the low-carbon transition affects firms’ credit ratings and market-implied distance-to-default. We develop a novel dataset covering firms’ greenhouse gas emissions alongside climate disclosure and forward-looking emission reduction targets. Panel regression analysis indicates that high emissions are associated with higher credit risk, but that this relationship can be mitigated by disclosing emissions and committing to reduce emissions. After the Paris agreement, firms most exposed to transition risk saw their ratings deteriorate relative to their peers, with the effect larger for European than US firms, probably reflecting differential climate policy expectations. A dynamic difference-in-differences approach also shows that European firms who make a climate commitment subsequently experience an improvement in their credit rating relative to comparable firms who do not set a target. These results have policy implications for corporate disclosure and pricing of transition risk.
The standard approach to solving linear DSGE models is to apply the QZ
method. It is a one-shot algorithm that leaves the researcher with little alternative than to seek a different algorithm should the result be numerically unsatisfactory. We develop an iterative implementation of QZ that delivers the standard result as its first iteration and further refinements at each subsequent iteration. We demonstrate that our algorithm successful corrects for accuracy losses identified in particular cases of a macro finance model and does not erroneously attempt to refine sufficiently accurate solutions.
Der Stand der finanziellen Bildung in Deutschland zeigt ein ambivalentes Bild: Obwohl das Land in internationalen Studien zum Finanzwissen regelmäßig Spitzenplätze belegt, bestehen nach wie vor deutliche Defizite – vor allem bei sozio-demografisch benachteiligten Gruppen. Die vorliegende Studie stützt sich auf eine Umfrage unter jungen Erwachsenen (18–35 Jahre) in Hessen. Sie zeigt, dass aus ihrer Perspektive finanzielle Themen eine hohe Relevanz haben und ein großes Interesse an Finanzbildung besteht. Gleichzeitig weist die Studie auf zentrale Herausforderungen hin, darunter der Umgang mit finanziellem Stress. Mehr als die Hälfte der Befragten gibt an, offen über Geld zu sprechen und häufig Online-Quellen zu nutzen. Dabei stoßen sie jedoch auf eine Vielzahl unterschiedlicher, teils widersprüchlicher Informationen. Ihr Vertrauen richtet sich vor allem an das soziale Umfeld, das jedoch oft selbst nur eingeschränktes finanzielles Wissen besitzt. Für zukünftige Maßnahmen zur Steigerung der Finanzkompetenz in Hessen ist ein Ansatz erforderlich, der gezielt „teachable moments” nutzt, die Bedürfnisse der Zielgruppen berücksichtigt und den Übergang ins Erwachsenenleben mit grundlegender finanzieller Bildung begleitet. Dies ist umso dringlicher, da bislang 73% dieser Altersgruppe nach eigenen Angaben keine Form finanzieller Schulung erhalten haben. Nachhaltig gestaltete Bildungsmaßnahmen können nicht nur individuelle finanzielle Sicherheit stärken, sondern auch langfristig zur gesellschaftlichen Resilienz beitragen.
Monetary policy in the euro area faces significant challenges due to the evolving economic landscape marked by the return of inflation, financial instability risks, and the consequences of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) to the operational framework of monetary policy. This article evaluates these key challenges in the context of the European Central Bank's (ECB) mandate and its broader implications. It highlights the unprecedented resurgence of inflation, which has complicated monetary policy decisions and revealed gaps in understanding household inflation expectations. Financial stability, now integral to the ECB’s mandate, is strained by trade-offs between short-term and long-term stability, particularly under high-interest rate environments. Finally, UMP has disrupted traditional financial mechanisms and increased dependency on the central bank’s liquidity operations.
SAFE's monthly Manager Sentiment Index is constructed by extracting sentiment from corporate financial disclosures of listed companies in Germany, offering significant insights into top management’s perspectives. This white paper outlines the methodology behind the index and its financial implications. Information about managers’ assessment of firms’ performance and financial conditions is material to investors but, at the same time, hard to observe. The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index quantifies managers’ beliefs using textual analysis of financial reports and earnings conference call transcripts. We show that the index is a strong predictor of future stock market returns. In summary, the SAFE Manager Sentiment Index provides a practical tool for key stakeholders such as investors, analysts, and policymakers seeking timely signals of corporate sentiment.
In this paper, the ECB monetary policy stance is assessed by comparing the recent tightening cycle (2022-today) with the two preceding ones, which took place in 2000-2001 and in 2006-2008. Interest rates, quantitative indicators and monetary conditions indices (MCIs) are used for this purpose. The main finding is that at the peak of the latest tightening cycle, the ECB monetary policy stance was no more restrictive than it was at the peak of the two preceding ones; actually, probably less. This contrasts with the fact that in the more recent case inflation was higher and more persistent than in the two earlier episodes.
This document was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 4 December 2024.