NeoBiota 27
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This study introduces a simple generic model, the Generic Pest Forecast System (GPFS), for simulating the relative populations of non-indigenous arthropod pests in space and time. The model was designed to calculate the population index or relative population using hourly weather data as influenced by evelopmental rate, high and low temperature mortalities and wet soil moisture mortality. Each module contains biological parameters derived from controlled experiments. The hourly weather data used for the model inputs were obtained from the National Center of Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) at a 38 km spatial resolution. A combination of spatial and site-specific temporal data was used to validate the GPFS models. The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), was selected as a case study for this research because it is climatically driven and a major pest of fruit production. Results from the GPFS model were compared with field B. dorsalis survey data in three locations: 1) Bangalore, India; 2) Hawaii, USA; and 3) Wuhan, China. The GPFS captured the initial outbreaks and major population peaks of B. dorsalis reasonably well, although agreement varied between sites. An index of agreement test indicated that GPFS model simulations matched with field B. dorsalis observation data with a range between 0.50 and 0.94 (1.0 as a perfect match). Of the three locations, Wuhan showed the highest match between the observed and simulated B. dorsalis populations, with indices of agreement of 0.85. The site-specific temporal comparisons implied that the GPFS model is informative for prediction of relative abundance. Spatial results from the GPFS model were also compared with 161 published observations of B. dorsalis distribution, mostly from East Asia. Since parameters for pupal overwintering and survival were unknown from the literature, these were inferred from the distribution data. The study showed that GPFS has promise for estimating suitable areas for B. dorsalis establishment and potentially other non-indigenous pests. It is concluded that calibrating prediction models with both spatial and sitespecific temporal data may provide more robust and reliable results than validations with either data set alone.
Decision tools have been advocated to assist the prioritization of management areas for preventing and mitigating exotic invasions into native ecosystems. Currently, most tools have been created for specific invaders/regions and are thus often not sufficient to address the complex range of invasion scenarios that managers encounter. As exotic invasions continue to be a major issue, science-based, information-driven tools are pressingly needed. In this study, we explore the potential of utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), one of the information-driven tools, to flexibly prioritize various invasion scenarios by incorporating a broad spectrum of management data. We tested the flexibility of the AHP management tool with two distinct invasion-stage-specific prioritizations for Amur honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii). The AHP tool successfully created two management prioritizations from contrasting invasion scenarios of established Amur honeysuckle invasion versus a hypothetical scenario of newly invading populations. The flexibility of AHP allowed users to alter input based on the stage of invasion in each scenario. In the established scenario, management priority was assigned to removing Amur honeysuckle from the most ecologically significant areas. For the new invasion scenario, priority was shifted to removing the invader from areas of most recent invasions. The two contrasting prioritizations demonstrate the flexibility of AHP as a management tool. We conclude that the flexible AHP tool could be useful for prioritizing management of exotic plant invasions.
Impacts of alien species on human health have recently become a major issue in medical research and invasion ecology, but comprehensive assessments of this subject are largely lacking. Here, we provide a literature review of alien species with public health impacts in Europe based on a systematic search in the Thomson Reuters Web of Science. We detected 77 relevant articles, of which 21 were reviews and 56 were original research articles. The taxonomic focus was on vascular plants (n=31 articles) and dipterans (n=25 articles). The original research articles mainly covered the spread of the study species, while early invasion stages (introduction, establishment) as well as impact and management were less investigated. Alien species of health concern in Europe are mostly introduced as contaminants, and mostly originate from climatically similar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In those cases (36% of all articles) when information on the trend in range and abundance was provided, this trend was mostly increasing. We detected little information on the severity of the impacts (two articles) and the interaction with climate change (three articles). In 15 original articles (28%) specific management measures were suggested, in only one article the socioeconomic costs were assessed. We conclude that European research on human health impacts of alien species is biased towards few species, and that several important aspects such as early invasion stages, severity of impact and its temporal trends, and the scale of the socioeconomic costs caused are poorly understood. Interdisciplinary projects bridging gaps between ecologists medical researchers, socioeconomists and public health authorities are required to link alien species to severity and trends of impacts, which is a crucial requisite for risk assessment and decision making.
Hemidactylus frenatus is an Asian gecko species that has invaded many tropical regions to become one of the most widespread lizards worldwide. This species has dispersed across the Pacific Ocean to reach Hawaii and subsequently Mexico and other Central American countries. More recently, it has been reported from northwestern South America. Using 12S and cytb mitochondrial DNA sequences I found that South American and Galápagos haplotypes are identical to those from Hawaii and Papua New Guinea, suggesting a common Melanesian origin for both Hawaii and South America. Literature records suggest that H. frenatus arrived in Colombia around the mid-‘90s, dispersed south into Ecuador in less than five years, and arrived in the Galápagos about one decade later.