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Macro-finance theory predicts that financial fragility builds up when volatility is low. This “volatility paradox’” challenges traditional systemic risk measures. I explore a new dimension of systemic risk, spillover persistence, which is the average time horizon at which a firm’s losses increase future risk in the financial system. Using firm-level data covering more than 30 years and 50 countries, I document that persistence declines when fragility builds up: before crises, during stock market booms, and when banks take more risks. In contrast, persistence increases with loss amplification: during crises and fire sales. These findings support key predictions of recent macrofinance models.
External linkages allow nascent ventures to access crucial resources during the process of new product development. Forming external linkages can substantially contribute to a venture’s performance. However, little is known about the paths of external linkage formation, as well as the circumstances that drive the choice to pursue one rather than another path. This gap deserves further investigation, because we do not know whether insights developed for incumbent firms also apply to nascent ventures: To address this gap, we explore a novel dataset of 370 venture creation processes. Using sequence analyses based on optimal matching techniques and cluster analyses, we reveal that nascent ventures pursue one of overall four distinct paths of linkage formation activities during new product development. Contrary to the findings of the strategy literature, we find that if nascent ventures engage in external linkages at all, they do not combine exploration- and exploitation-oriented linkages but form either exploration- or exploitation-oriented linkages. Additional regression analyses highlight the circumstances that lead nascent ventures to pursue one rather than the other pathways. Taken together, our analyses point out that resource scarcity constitutes an important factor shaping the linkage formation activities of nascent ventures. Accordingly, we show that nascent ventures tend not to optimize by adding complementary knowledge to the firm’s knowledge base but rather to extend the existing knowledge base—a strategy which we call bricolage.
This research examines the impact of online display advertising and paid search advertising relative to offline advertising on firm performance and firm value. Using proprietary data on annualized advertising expenditures for 1651 firms spanning seven years, we document that both display advertising and paid search advertising exhibit positive effects on firm performance (measured by sales) and firm value (measured by Tobin's q). Paid search advertising has a more positive effect on sales than offline advertising, consistent with paid search being closest to the actual purchase decision and having enhanced targeting abilities. Display advertising exhibits a relatively more positive effect on Tobin's q than offline advertising, consistent with its long-term effects. The findings suggest heterogeneous economic benefits across different types of advertising, with direct implications for managers in analyzing advertising effectiveness and external stakeholders in assessing firm performance.
Knowledge of consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) is a prerequisite to profitable price-setting. To gauge consumers' WTP, practitioners often rely on a direct single question approach in which consumers are asked to explicitly state their WTP for a product. Despite its popularity among practitioners, this approach has been found to suffer from hypothetical bias. In this paper, we propose a rigorous method that improves the accuracy of the direct single question approach. Specifically, we systematically assess the hypothetical biases associated with the direct single question approach and explore ways to de-bias it. Our results show that by using the de-biasing procedures we propose, we can generate a de-biased direct single question approach that is accurate enough to be useful for managerial decision-making. We validate this approach with two studies in this paper.
The US Treasury recently permitted deferred longevity income annuities to be included in pension plan menus as a default payout solution, yet little research has investigated whether more people should convert some of the $18 trillion they hold in employer-based defined contribution plans into lifelong income streams. We investigate this innovation using a calibrated lifecycle consumption and portfolio choice model embodying realistic institutional considerations. Our welfare analysis shows that defaulting a modest portion of retirees’ 401(k) assets (over a threshold) is an attractive way to enhance retirement security, enhancing welfare by up to 20% of retiree plan accruals.
Zentrales Forschungsanliegen der vorliegenden Abhandlung ist die Erörterung der Probleme, welche sich für die Corporate Governance einer Aktiengesellschaft ergeben, wenn abweichend vom gesetzlichen Optimalbild eine Divergenz zwischen dem Stimmrecht des Aktionärs und dessen wirtschaftlicher Betroffenheit vorliegt. Der von seinen Entscheidungen nicht proportional betroffene Aktionär soll als Corporate Governance Akteur in den Blick genommen werden.
Wieso aber lohnt sich eine erneute Befassung mit einem Problem, welches Easterbrook und Fischel bereits 1983 als ein solches identifiziert haben? Zum einen ist die internationale und deutsche Corporate Governance Debatte erheblich vorangeschritten. Steckte diese zum Zeitpunkt des Aufsatzes „Voting in Corporate Law“ noch in den Kinderschuhen, hat sie sich heute zu einem eigenen Forschungsfeld entwickelt, welches Juristen und Ökonomen in aller Welt beschäftigt. Der nicht proportional betroffene Aktionär wird in das durch diese Forschungsströmung entwickelte moderne Corporate Governance System eingeordnet. Zum anderen sind vor allem durch die Entwicklung vielfältiger Finanzderivate im Rahmen der sogenannten „derivatives revolution“ die Möglichkeiten durch schuldrechtliche Vereinbarungen eine entsprechende Disproportionalität zu erzeugen erheblich gestiegen. Während Easterbrook und Fischel noch feststellten „[…] it is not possible to seperate the voting right from the equity interest“, gestatten moderne Finanzprodukte es Aktionären, ihre wirtschaftliche Betroffenheit und zugleich deren Verhältnis zu ihrer Stimmrechtsmacht fast beliebig auszugestalten.
Die Zusammenschau aus einer erheblich diffizileren Corporate Governance Debatte in Verbindung mit einer neuen Vielzahl an Möglichkeiten eine Disproportionalität zwischen Stimmrecht und wirtschaftlicher Betroffenheit zu erzeugen, gibt der Thematik die notwendige Aktualität, die eine vertiefte Befassung anzeigt.
In Abgrenzung zu den bislang in diesem Themenkreis erschienenen Arbeiten, welche sich vor allem isoliert mit den Folgen für das Stimmrecht bzw. den einzelnen Anteilseigner befassen, thematisiert die vorliegende Abhandlung vor allem die Auswirkungen, welche die Trennung von Stimmrecht und wirtschaftlicher Betroffenheit für die Corporate Governance Struktur der Aktiengesellschaft nach sich ziehen kann. Auf diese Weise wird die Problematik der Ausübung disproportionaler Stimmrechte in die Erkenntnisse der Corporate Governance Theorie eingeordnet und insbesondere auch die ökonomischen Folgen selbiger herausgearbeitet. Die so gewonnenen Ergebnisse verdeutlichen den gesetzgeberischen Handlungsbedarf.
The clinical and economic value of a successful shutdown during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany
(2020)
Background and aim A shutdown of businesses enacted during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic can serve different goals, e.g., preventing the intensive care unit (ICU) capacity from being overwhelmed (‘flattening the curve’) or keeping the reproduction number substantially below one (‘squashing the curve’). The aim of this study was to determine the clinical and economic value of a shutdown that is successful in ‘flattening’ or ‘squashing the curve’ in Germany.
Methods In the base case, the study compared a successful shutdown to a worst-case scenario with no ICU capacity left to treat COVID-19 patients. To this end, a decision model was developed using, e.g., information on age-specific fatality rates, ICU outcomes, and the herd protection threshold. The value of an additional life year was borrowed from new, innovative oncological drugs, as cancer reflects a condition with a similar morbidity and mortality burden in the general population in the short term as COVID-19.
Results A shutdown that is successful in ‘flattening the curve’ is projected to yield an average health gain between 0.02 and 0.08 life years (0.2 to 0.9 months) per capita in the German population. The corresponding economic value ranges between €1543 and €8027 per capita or, extrapolated to the total population, 4% to 19% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019. A shutdown that is successful in ‘squashing the curve’ is expected to yield a minimum health gain of 0.10 life years (1.2 months) per capita, corresponding to 24% of the GDP in 2019. Results are particularly sensitive to mortality data and the prevalence of undetected cases.
Conclusion A successful shutdown is forecasted to yield a considerable gain in life years in the German population. Nevertheless, questions around the affordability and underfunding of other parts of the healthcare system emerge.
Combining market data with a publicly available monthly snapshot of Deutsche Börse’s index ranking list, I create a model that predicts index changes in the DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX from 2010 to 2019 before they are officially announced. Even though I empirically show that index changes are predictable, they still earn sizeable post-announcement 1-day abnormal returns up to 1.42% and − 1.54% for promotions and demotions, respectively. While abnormal returns are larger in smaller stocks, I find no evidence that they are related to funding constraints or additional risk for trading on wrong predictions. A trading strategy that trades according to my model yields an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.83 while being invested for just 4 days a year.
This paper defends The Transformation of Values into Prices on the Basis of Random Systems, published in EIER, by answering to the Comments made in the same journal by Professors Mori, Morioka and Yamazaki. The clarifications mainly concern the justification of the randomness assumptions, the conditions needed to obtain the equality of total profit with total surplus value in the simplified one-industry system and the invariance of the results to changes in the units of measurement.