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Large banks often sell part of their loan portfolio in the form of collateralized debt obligations (CDO) to investors. In this paper we raise the question whether credit asset securitization affects the cyclicality (or commonality) of bank equity values. The commonality of bank equity values reflects a major component of systemic risks in the banking market, caused by correlated defaults of loans in the banks' loan books. Our simulations take into account the major stylized fact of CDO transactions, the non-proportional nature of risk sharing that goes along with tranching. We provide a theoretical framework for the risk transfer through securitization that builds on a macro risk factor and an idiosyncratic risk factor, allowing an identification of the types of risk that the individual tranche holders bear. This allows conclusions about the risk positions of issuing banks after risk transfer. Building on the strict subordination of tranches, we first evaluate the correlation properties both within and across risk classes. We then determine the effect of securitization on the systematic risk of all tranches, and derive its effect on the issuing bank's equity beta. The simulation results show that under plausible assumptions concerning bank reinvestment behaviour and capital structure choice, the issuing intermediary's systematic risk tends to rise. We discuss the implications of our findings for financial stability supervision. Klassifikation: G28
Risk transfer with CDOs
(2008)
Modern bank management comprises both classical lending business and transfer of asset risk to capital markets through securitization. Sound knowledge of the risks involved in securitization transactions is a prerequisite for solid risk management. This paper aims to resolve a part of the opaqueness surrounding credit-risk allocation to tranches that represent claims of different seniority on a reference portfolio. In particular, this paper analyzes the allocation of credit risk to different tranches of a CDO transaction when the underlying asset returns are driven by a common macro factor and an idiosyncratic component. Junior and senior tranches are found to be nearly orthogonal, motivating a search for the whereabout of systematic risk in CDO transactions. We propose a metric for capturing the allocation of systematic risk to tranches. First, in contrast to a widely-held claim, we show that (extreme) tail risk in standard CDO transactions is held by all tranches. While junior tranches take on all types of systematic risk, senior tranches take on almost no non-tail risk. This is in stark contrast to an untranched bond portfolio of the same rating quality, which on average suffers substantial losses for all realizations of the macro factor. Second, given tranching, a shock to the risk of the underlying asset portfolio (e.g. a rise in asset correlation or in mean portfolio loss) has the strongest impact, in relative terms, on the exposure of senior tranche CDO-investors. Our findings can be used to explain major stylized facts observed in credit markets.
Risk transfer with CDOs
(2008)
Modern bank management comprises both classical lending business and transfer of asset risk to capital markets through securitization. Sound knowledge of the risks involved in securitization transactions is a prerequisite for solid risk management. This paper aims to resolve a part of the opaqueness surrounding credit-risk allocation to tranches that represent claims of different seniority on a reference portfolio. In particular, this paper analyzes the allocation of credit risk to different tranches of a CDO transaction when the underlying asset returns are driven by a common macro factor and an idiosyncratic component. Junior and senior tranches are found to be nearly orthogonal, motivating a search for the where about of systematic risk in CDO transactions. We propose a metric for capturing the allocation of systematic risk to tranches. First, in contrast to a widely-held claim, we show that (extreme) tail risk in standard CDO transactions is held by all tranches. While junior tranches take on all types of systematic risk, senior tranches take on almost no non-tail risk. This is in stark contrast to an untranched bond portfolio of the same rating quality, which on average suffers substantial losses for all realizations of the macro factor. Second, given tranching, a shock to the risk of the underlying asset portfolio (e.g. a rise in asset correlation or in mean portfolio loss) has the strongest impact, in relative terms, on the exposure of senior tranche CDO-investors. Our findings can be used to explain major stylized facts observed in credit markets.
This paper analyzes the risk properties of typical asset-backed securities (ABS), like CDOs or MBS, relying on a model with both macroeconomic and idiosyncratic components. The examined properties include expected loss, loss given default, and macro factor dependencies. Using a two-dimensional loss decomposition as a new metric, the risk properties of individual ABS tranches can directly be compared to those of corporate bonds, within and across rating classes. By applying Monte Carlo Simulation, we find that the risk properties of ABS differ significantly and systematically from those of straight bonds with the same rating. In particular, loss given default, the sensitivities to macroeconomic risk, and model risk differ greatly between instruments. Our findings have implications for understanding the credit crisis and for policy making. On an economic level, our analysis suggests a new explanation for the observed rating inflation in structured finance markets during the pre-crisis period 2004-2007. On a policy level, our findings call for a termination of the 'one-size-fits-all' approach to the rating methodology for fixed income instruments, requiring an own rating methodology for structured finance instruments. JEL Classification: G21, G28
This paper analyzes the risk properties of typical asset-backed securities (ABS), like CDOs or MBS, relying on a model with both macroeconomic and idiosyncratic components. The examined properties include expected loss, loss given default, and macro factor dependencies. Using a two-dimensional loss decomposition as a new metric, the risk properties of individual ABS tranches can directly be compared to those of corporate bonds, within and across rating classes. By applying Monte Carlo Simulation, we find that the risk properties of ABS differ significantly and systematically from those of straight bonds with the same rating. In particular, loss given default, the sensitivities to macroeconomic risk, and model risk differ greatly between instruments. Our findings have implications for understanding the credit crisis and for policy making. On an economic level, our analysis suggests a new explanation for the observed rating inflation in structured finance markets during the pre-crisis period 2004-2007. On a policy level, our findings call for a termination of the 'one-size-fits-all' approach to the rating methodology for fixed income instruments, requiring an own rating methodology for structured finance instruments. JEL Classification: G21, G28 Keywords: credit risk, risk transfer, systematic risk
The first measurement of two-pion Bose–Einstein correlations in central Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN=2.76 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider is presented. We observe a growing trend with energy now not only for the longitudinal and the outward but also for the sideward pion source radius. The pion homogeneity volume and the decoupling time are significantly larger than those measured at RHIC.
Inclusive transverse momentum spectra of primary charged particles in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN=2.76 TeV have been measured by the ALICE Collaboration at the LHC. The data are presented for central and peripheral collisions, corresponding to 0–5% and 70–80% of the hadronic Pb–Pb cross section. The measured charged particle spectra in |η|<0.8 and 0.3<pT<20 GeV/c are compared to the expectation in pp collisions at the same sNN, scaled by the number of underlying nucleon–nucleon collisions. The comparison is expressed in terms of the nuclear modification factor RAA. The result indicates only weak medium effects (RAA≈0.7) in peripheral collisions. In central collisions, RAA reaches a minimum of about 0.14 at pT=6–7 GeV/c and increases significantly at larger pT. The measured suppression of high-pT particles is stronger than that observed at lower collision energies, indicating that a very dense medium is formed in central Pb–Pb collisions at the LHC.
Rapidity and transverse momentum dependence of inclusive J/ψ production in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV
(2011)
The ALICE experiment at the LHC has studied inclusive J/ψ production at central and forward rapidities in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV. In this Letter, we report on the first results obtained detecting the J/ψ through the dilepton decay into e+e− and μ+μ− pairs in the rapidity ranges |y|<0.9 and 2.5<y<4, respectively, and with acceptance down to zero pT. In the dielectron channel the analysis was carried out on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity Lint=5.6 nb−1 and the number of signal events is NJ/ψ=352±32(stat.)±28(syst.); the corresponding figures in the dimuon channel are Lint=15.6 nb−1 and NJ/ψ=1924±77(stat.)±144(syst.). The measured production cross sections are σJ/ψ(|y|<0.9)=10.7±1.0(stat.)±1.6(syst.)−2.3+1.6(syst.pol.)μb and σJ/ψ(2.5<y<4)=6.31±0.25(stat.)±0.76(syst.)−1.96+0.95(syst.pol.)μb. The differential cross sections, in transverse momentum and rapidity, of the J/ψ were also measured.
The pT-differential inclusive production cross section of the prompt charm-strange meson Ds+ in the rapidity range |y|<0.5 was measured in proton–proton collisions at s=7 TeV at the LHC using the ALICE detector. The analysis was performed on a data sample of 2.98×108 events collected with a minimum-bias trigger. The corresponding integrated luminosity is Lint=4.8 nb−1. Reconstructing the decay Ds+→ϕπ+, with ϕ→K−K+, and its charge conjugate, about 480 Ds± mesons were counted, after selection cuts, in the transverse momentum range 2<pT<12 GeV/c. The results are compared with predictions from models based on perturbative QCD. The ratios of the cross sections of four D meson species (namely D0, D+, D⁎+ and Ds+) were determined both as a function of pT and integrated over pT after extrapolating to full pT range, together with the strangeness suppression factor in charm fragmentation. The obtained values are found to be compatible within uncertainties with those measured by other experiments in e+e−, ep and pp interactions at various centre-of-mass energies.
The ALICE Collaboration has measured inclusive J/ψ production in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy √s=2.76 TeV at the LHC. The results presented in this Letter refer to the rapidity ranges |y|<0.9 and 2.5<y<4 and have been obtained by measuring the electron and muon pair decay channels, respectively. The integrated luminosities for the two channels are Linte=1.1 nb−1 and Lintμ=19.9 nb−1, and the corresponding signal statistics are NJ/ψe+e−=59±14 and NJ/ψμ+μ−=1364±53. We present dσJ/ψ/dy for the two rapidity regions under study and, for the forward-y range, d2σJ/ψ/dydpt in the transverse momentum domain 0<pt<8 GeV/c. The results are compared with previously published results at s=7 TeV and with theoretical calculations.