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Several past summer floods in Central Europe were associated with so-called Vb‑cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. This study illustrates the usefulness of the parametric transfer entropy measure TE‑linear in investigating heavy Vb‑cyclone precipitation events in the Odra catchment (Poland). With the application of the TE‑linear approach, we confirm the impact of the Mediterranean Sea on precipitation intensification. Moreover, we also detect significant information exchange to Vb‑cyclone precipitation from evaporation over the European continent along the typical Vb‑cyclone pathway. Thus, the Mediterranean Sea could enhance the Vb‑cyclone precipitation by pre-moistening continental moisture source regions that contribute to precipitation downstream in the investigated catchments. Overall, the transfer entropy approach with the measure TE‑linear proved to be computationally effective and complementary to traditional methods such as Lagrangian and Eulerian diagnostics.
Fossil records of early solar irradiation and cosmolocation of the CAI factory: a reappraisal
(2021)
Calcium-aluminum–rich inclusions (CAIs) in meteorites carry crucial information about the environmental conditions of the nascent Solar System prior to planet formation. Based on models of 50V–10Be co-production by in-situ irradiation, CAIs are considered to have formed within ~0.1 AU from the proto-Sun. Here, we present vanadium (V) and strontium (Sr) isotopic co-variations in fine- and coarse-grained CAIs and demonstrate that kinetic isotope effects during partial condensation and evaporation best explain V isotope anomalies previously attributed to solar particle irradiation. We also report initial excesses of 10Be and argue that CV CAIs possess essentially a homogeneous level of 10Be, inherited during their formation. Based on numerical modeling of 50V–10Be co-production by irradiation, we show that CAI formation during protoplanetary disk build-up likely occurred at greater heliocentric distances than previously considered, up to planet-forming regions (~1AU), where solar particle fluxes were sufficiently low to avoid substantial in-situ irradiation of CAIs.
Positive plant–plant interactions are thought to drive vegetation patterns in harsh environments, such as semi-arid areas. According to the stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH), the role of positive interactions between species (facilitation) is expected to increase with harshness, predicting associated variation in species composition along environmental gradients. However, the relation between stress and facilitation along environmental gradients is debated. Furthermore, differentiating facilitative interactions from other underlying mechanisms, such as microtopographic heterogeneity, is not trivial. We analysed the spatial co-occurrence relationships of vascular plant species that form patchy vegetation in arid lapilli fields (tephra) from recent volcanic eruptions on La Palma, Canary Islands. Assuming a harshness gradient negatively correlated with elevation because the lower elevations are more arid and water availability is considered the most limiting resource, and that an outcome of facilitation is plants co-occurring in the same patch, from the SGH we expected a greater degree of co-occurrence at lower elevation. We tested this at both the species and the individual plant level. We analysed the species composition of 1277 shrubby vegetation patches at 64 different sampling points, ranging from the coast to around 700 m a.s.l. Patch morphology and microtopographic heterogeneity variables were also measured, to account for their potential effects on the species composition of patches. We used generalized linear models and generalized mixed-effects models to analyse species richness, number of individuals in patches and percentage of patches with positive co-occurrences, and a pairwise co-occurrence analysis combined with a graphical network analysis to reveal positive links between 13 of the species. We found that the percentage of patches with positive co-occurrences increased at higher elevations, in contrast to the predictions of the SGH, but in accordance with a refined stress-gradient hypothesis for arid sites, in which characteristics of the interacting species are incorporated.
Aim: Recent studies in southern Africa identified past biome stability as an important predictor of biodiversity. We aimed to assess the extent to which past biome stability predicts present global biodiversity patterns, and the extent to which projected climatic changes may lead to eventual biome changes in areas with constant past biome.
Location: Global.
Taxon: Spermatophyta; terrestrial vertebrates.
Methods: Biome constancy was assessed and mapped using results from 89 dynamic global vegetation model simulations, driven by outputs of palaeoclimate experiments spanning the past 140 ka. We tested the hypothesis that terrestrial vertebrate diversity is predicted by biome constancy. We also simulated potential future vegetation, and hence potential future biome patterns, and quantified and mapped the extent of projected eventual future biome change in areas of past constant biome.
Results: Approximately 11% of global ice-free land had a constant biome since 140 ka. Apart from areas of constant Desert, many areas with constant biome support high species diversity. All terrestrial vertebrate groups show a strong positive relationship between biome constancy and vertebrate diversity in areas of greater diversity, but no relationship in less diverse areas. Climatic change projected by 2100 commits 46%–66% of global ice-free land, and 34%–52% of areas of past constant biome (excluding areas of constant Desert) to eventual biome change.
Main conclusions: Past biome stability strongly predicts vertebrate diversity in areas of higher diversity. Future climatic changes will lead to biome changes in many areas of past constant biome, with profound implications for biodiversity conservation. Some projected biome changes will result in substantial reductions in biospheric carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services.
Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle, on the global scale, and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modeling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyze water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 GWMs that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to further enhance model improvement, intercomparison, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Seven models used six compartments, while three models (JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPIHM) simulate only water used by humans for the irrigation sector. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end, these equations have been adjusted or have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. Our results highlight that the predictive uncertainty of GWMs can be reduced through improvements of the existing hydrologic processes, implementation of new processes in the models, and high-quality input data.
Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how 16 state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to enhance model intercomparison, improvement, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Six models used six compartments, while four models (DBH, JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPI-HM) simulate only water for the irrigation sector. We conclude that, even though hydrological processes are often based on similar equations for various processes, in the end these equations have been adjusted or models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. The similarities and differences found among the models analysed in this study are expected to enable us to reduce the uncertainty in multi-model ensembles, improve existing hydrological processes, and integrate new processes.
This paper investigates the global stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the ERA5 meteorological reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The analysis is based on simulations of stratospheric mean age of air, including the full age spectrum, with the Lagrangian transport model CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere), driven by reanalysis winds and total diabatic heating rates. ERA5-based results are compared to results based on the preceding ERA-Interim reanalysis. Our results show a significantly slower BDC for ERA5 than for ERA-Interim, manifesting in weaker diabatic heating rates and higher age of air. In the tropical lower stratosphere, heating rates are 30 %–40 % weaker in ERA5, likely correcting a bias in ERA-Interim. At 20 km and in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere, ERA5 age values are around the upper margin of the uncertainty range from historical tracer observations, indicating a somewhat slow–biased BDC. The age trend in ERA5 over the 1989–2018 period is negative throughout the stratosphere, as climate models predict in response to global warming. However, the age decrease is not linear but steplike, potentially caused by multi-annual variability or changes in the observations included in the assimilation. During the 2002–2012 period, the ERA5 age shows a similar hemispheric dipole trend pattern as ERA-Interim, with age increasing in the NH and decreasing in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Shifts in the age spectrum peak and residual circulation transit times indicate that reanalysis differences in age are likely caused by differences in the residual circulation. In particular, the shallow BDC branch accelerates in both reanalyses, whereas the deep branch accelerates in ERA5 and decelerates in ERA-Interim.
Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
(2021)
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.
The evolution and interrelationships of carnivorous squamates (mosasaurs, snakes, monitor lizards, Gila Monsters) are a contentious part of reptile systematics and go to the heart of conflict between morphological and molecular data in inferring evolutionary history. One of the best-preserved fossils in this motley grouping is “Saniwa” feisti Stritzke, 1983, represented by complete skeletons from the early-middle Eocene of Messel, Germany. We re-describe it on the basis of superficial examination, stereoradiography, and high-resolution X-ray computed tomography of new and published specimens. The scalation of the lizard is unique, consisting of small, keeled scales on the head (including a row of enlarged medial supraorbitals) and large, rhomboidal, keeled scales (invested by osteoderms) that covered the rest of the body. Two paired longitudinal rows of enlarged scales ran down the neck. The head was laterally compressed and box-shaped due to the presence of a strong canthal-temporal ridge; the limbs and tail were very long. Notable osteological features include: a toothed, strap-like vomer; septomaxilla with a long posterior process; palpebral with a long posterolateral process; a lacrimal boss and a single lacrimal foramen; a well-developed cultriform process of the parabasisphenoid; two hypoglossal (XII) foramina in addition to the vagus; a lack of resorption pits for replacement teeth; and possibly the presence of more than one wave of developing replacement teeth per locus. There are no osteological modifications suggestive of an intramandibular hinge, but postmortem displacement of the angular-prearticular-surangular complex in multiple specimens suggests that there might have been some degree of mobility in the lower jaw based on soft-tissue modifications. Using phylogenetic analyses on a data-set comprising 473 morphological characters and 46 DNA loci, we infer that a monophyletic Palaeovaranidae Georgalis, 2017, including Eosaniwa Haubold, 1977, lies on the stem of Varanidae Merrem, 1820, basal to various Cretaceous Mongolian taxa. We transfer feisti to the new genus Paranecrosaurus n. gen. Analysis of gut contents reveals only the second known specimen of the cryptozoic lizard Cryptolacerta hassiaca Müller, Hipsley, Head, Kardjilov, Hilger, Wuttke & Reisz, 2011, confirming a diet that was at least partly carnivorous; the preservation of the teeth of C. hassiaca suggests that the gastric physiology of Paranecrosaurus feisti (Stritzke, 1983) n. comb. had high acidity but low enzyme activity. Based on the foregoing and linear discriminant function analysis, we reconstruct P. feisti n. comb., as a powerful, widely roaming, faunivorous-carnivorous stem monitor lizard with a sensitive snout. If the molecular phylogeny of anguimorphs is correct, then many of the features shared by Helodermatidae Gray, 1837 and Varanidae must have arisen convergently, partly associated with diet. In that case, a reconciliation of morphological and molecular data would require the discovery of equally primitive fossils on the helodermatid stem.