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Analyzing the impact of streamflow drought on hydroelectricity production: a global-scale study
(2021)
Electricity production by hydropower is negatively affected by drought. To understand and quantify risks of less than normal streamflow for hydroelectricity production (HP) at the global scale, we developed an HP model that simulates time series of monthly HP worldwide and thus enables analyzing the impact of drought on HP. The HP model is based on a new global hydropower database (GHD), containing 8,716 geo-localized plant records, and on monthly streamflow values computed by the global hydrological model WaterGAP with a spatial resolution of 0.5°. The GHD includes 44 attributes and covers 91.8% of the globally installed capacity. The HP model can reproduce HP trends, seasonality, and interannual variability that was caused by both (de)commissioning of hydropower plants and hydrological variability. It can also simulate streamflow drought and its impact on HP reasonably well. Global risk maps of HP reduction were generated for both 0.5° grid cells and countries, revealing that 67 out of the 134 countries with hydropower suffer, in 1 out of 10 years, from a reduction of more than 20% of mean annual HP and 18 countries from a reduction of more than 40%. The developed HP model enables advanced assessments of drought impacts on hydroelectricity at national to international levels.
Vegetation responds to drought through a complex interplay of plant hydraulic mechanisms, posing challenges for model development and parameterization. We present a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of leaf water-potential over time while considering different strategies by which plant species regulate their water-potentials. The model has two parameters: the parameter λ describing the adjustment of the leaf water potential to changes in soil water potential, and the parameter Δψww describing the typical ‘well-watered’ leaf water potentials at non-stressed (near-zero) levels of soil water potential. Our model was tested and calibrated on 110 time-series datasets containing the leaf- and soil water potentials of 66 species under drought and non-drought conditions. Our model successfully reproduces the measured leaf water potentials over time based on three different regulation strategies under drought. We found that three parameter sets derived from the measurement data reproduced the dynamics of 53% of an drought dataset, and 52% of a control dataset [root mean square error (RMSE) < 0.5 MPa)]. We conclude that, instead of quantifying water-potential-regulation of different plant species by complex modeling approaches, a small set of parameters may be sufficient to describe the water potential regulation behavior for large-scale modeling. Thus, our approach paves the way for a parsimonious representation of the full spectrum of plant hydraulic responses to drought in dynamic vegetation models.
Established populations of non-natives may collapse without a clear causal mechanism. Hypothetically, fluctuations in habitat structural complexity may influence dynamics of invaders and the biotic resistance offered by predators. Herein I report observations of the collapse of a reproducing population of the nonnative African jewelfish (Hemichromis letourneuxi) in a Florida lake concurrent with an unusual low-water period. I test the hypothesis that predation may have played a key role in the collapse using a combination of field surveys of habitat and fish abundance and predator-prey experiments. Habitat complexity was high before and after the low water period but virtually nonexistent during low water. The abundance of African jewelfish and native juvenile bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) and eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) declined concurrently with decreasing complexity but the native species rebounded when lake levels increased. Large-bodied natives such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and adult bluegill showed no pattern of fluctuation related to habitat complexity. African jewelfish survival was 1.6 times greater at high versus low complexity and over 7 times higher versus no complexity in the presence of largemouth bass. Conversely, eastern mosquitofish, a species that exerts strong effects on small-bodied fishes in structurally complex habitats had no effect on African jewelfish survival. Predation effects on susceptible non-natives should be considered as a potential control action. Population collapse is understudied but may provide insights into long-term dynamics of invaders and information useful for management of problematic species.