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In this work the flexibility requirements of a highly renewable European electricity network that has to cover fluctuations of wind and solar power generation on different temporal and spatial scales are studied. Cost optimal ways to do so are analysed that include optimal distribution of the infrastructure, large scale transmission, storage, and dispatchable generators. In order to examine these issues, a model of increasing sophistication is built, first considering different flexibility classes of conventional generation, then adding storage, before finally considering transmission to see the effects of each.
To conclude, in this work it was shown that slowly flexible base load generators can only be used in energy systems with renewable shares of less than 50%, independent of the expansion of an interconnecting transmission network within Europe. Furthermore, for a system with a dominant fraction of renewable generation, highly flexible generators are essentially the only necessary class of backup generators. The total backup capacity can only be decreased significantly if interconnecting transmission is allowed, clearly favouring a European-wide energy network. These results are independent of the complexity level of the cost assumptions used for the models. The use of storage technologies allows to reduce the required conventional backup capacity further. This highlights the importance of including additional technologies into the energy system that provide flexibility to balance fluctuations caused by the renewable energy sources. These technologies could for example be advanced energy storage systems, interconnecting transmission in the electricity network, and hydro power plants.
It was demonstrated that a cost optimal European electricity system with almost 100% renewable generation can have total system costs comparable to today's system cost. However, this requires a very large transmission grid expansion to nine times the line volume of the present-day system. Limiting transmission increases the system cost by up to a third, however, a compromise grid with four times today's line volume already locks in most of the cost benefits. Therefore, it is very clear that by increasing the pan-European network connectivity, a cost efficient inclusion of renewable energies can be achieved, which is strongly needed to reach current climate change prevention goals.
It was also shown that a similarly cost efficient, highly renewable European electricity system can be achieved that considers a wide range of additional policy constraints and plausible changes of economic parameters.
The present work deals with the integration of variable renewable energy sources, wind and solar energy into the European and US power grid. In contrast to other networks, such as the gas supply mains, the electricity network is practically not able to store energy. Generation and consumption therefore always have tobe balanced. Currently, the load curve is viewed as a rigid boundary condition, which must be followed by the generation system. The basic idea of the approach followed here is that weather-dependent generation causes a shift of focus of the electricity supply. At high shares of wind and solar generation, the role of the rigid boundary condition falls to the residual load, that is, the remaining load after subtraction of renewable generation. The goal is to include the weather dependence as well as the load curve in the design of the future electricity supply.
After a brief introduction, the present work first turns to the underlying weather-, generation and load data, which form the starting point of the analysis. In addition, some basic concepts of energy economics are discussed, which are needed in the following.
In the main part of the thesis, several algorithms are developed to determine the load flow in a network with a high share of wind and solar energy and to determine the backup supply needed at the same time. Minimization of the energy needed from controllable power plants, the capacity variable power plants, and the capacity of storing serve as guiding principles. In addition, the optimization problem of grid extensions is considered. It is shown that it can be formulated as a convex optimization problem. It turns out that with an optimized, international transmission network which is about four times the currently available transmission capacity, much of the potential savings in backup energy (about 40%) in Europe can be reached. In contrast, a twelvefold increase the transmission capacity would be necessary for a complete implementation of all possible savings in dispatchable power plants.
The reduction of the dispatchable generation capacity and storage capacity, however, presents a greater challenge. Due to correlations in the generation of time series of individual countries, it may be reduced only with difficulty, and by only about 30%.
In the following, the influence of the relative share of wind and solar energy is illuminated and examined the interplay with the line capacitance. A stronger transmission network tends to lead to a higher proportion of wind energy being better integrated. With increasing line capacity, the optimal mix in Europe therefore shifts from about 70% to 80% wind. Similar analyses are carried out for the US with comparable results.
In addition, the cost of the overall system can be reduced. It is interesting at this point that the advantages for the network integration may outweigh higher production costs of individual technologies, so that it is more favourable from the viewpoint of the entire system to use the more expensive technologies.
Finally, attention is given to the flexibility of the dispatchable power plants. Starting from a Fourier-like decomposition of the load curve as it was a few years ago, when hardly renewable generation capacity was present, capacities of different flexibility classes of dispatchable power plant are calculated. For this purpose, it is assumed that the power plant park is able to follow the load curve without significant surplusses or deficits. From this examination, it is derived what capacity must at least be available without having to resort to a detailed database of existing power plants.
Assuming a strong European cooperation, with a stronger international transmission network, the dispatchable power capacity can be significantly reduced while maintaining security of supply and generating relatively small surplusses in dispatchable power plants.