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Who knows what when? : The information content of pre-IPO market prices : [Version March/June 2002]
(2002)
To resolve the IPO underpricing puzzle it is essential to analyze who knows what when during the issuing process. In Germany, broker-dealers make a market in IPOs during the subscription period. We examine these pre-issue prices and find that they are highly informative. They are closer to the first price subsequently established on the exchange than both the midpoint of the bookbuilding range and the offer price. The pre-issue prices explain a large part of the underpricing left unexplained by other variables. The results imply that information asymmetries are much lower than the observed variance of underpricing suggests.
Over-allotment arrangements are nowadays part of almost any initial public offering. The underwriting banks borrow stocks from the previous shareholders to issue more than the initially announced number of shares. This is combined with the option to cover this short position at the issue price. We present empirical evidence on the value of these arrangements to the underwriters of initial public offerings on the Neuer Markt. The over-allotment arrangement is regarded as a portfolio of a long call option and a short position in a forward contract on the stock, which is different from other approaches presented in the literature.
Given the economically substantial values for these option-like claims we try to identify benefits to previous shareholders or new investors when the company is using this instrument in the process of going public. Although we carefully control for potential endogeneity problems, we find virtually no evidence for a reduction in underpricing for firms using over-allotment arrangements. Furthermore, we do not find evidence for more pronounced price stabilization activities or better aftermarket performance for firms granting an over-allotment arrangement to the underwriting banks.
We analyze the desinvestment decision of venture capitalists in the course of an IPO of their portfolio firms. The capital market learns of the project quality only in the period following the IPO. Venture capitalists with high-quality firms face a trade-off between immediately selling their stake in the venture at a price below the true value and having to wait until the true value is revealed. We show that the dilemma may be resolved via a reputation-acquiring mechanism in a repeated game set-up. Thereby, we can explain, e.g., the advent of "hot-issue market behavior" involving early disinvestments and a high degree of price uncertainty. Furthermore, we provide a new rationale for underpricing. Young venture capitalists may use underpricing as a device for credibly committing themselves to acquiring reputation.
In den vergangenen Jahren haben sich die Kapitalmärkte und das Anlegerinteresse an der Aktie in Deutschland stark verändert. Die Suche nach einer notwendigen und rentablen Ergänzung traditioneller Altersvorsorgeformen hat dazu ebenso beigetragen wie die Privatisierung von im Staatsbesitz gehaltenen Unternehmen. Aber auch der Börsengang einer Vielzahl junger Unternehmen sorgt in bisher nicht gekanntem Ausmaß für zusätzliches Interesse der „Erbengeneration“, der die Beteiligung kostengünstig über Online-Broker ermöglicht wird. Eine hervorragende Bedeutung kommt in diesem Zusammenhang dem Neuen Markt der Deutschen Börse zu, der sich seit seiner Einrichtung 1997 hinsichtlich der Zahl der Neuemissionen, der Marktkapitalisierung und der Börsenumsätze auch im internationalen Vergleich außergewöhnlich erfolgreich entwickelt hat. Der gegenwärtige Konjunkturabschwung, der von einem starken Rückgang der Kurse an den Börsen und darunter auch vor allem am Neuen Markt begleitet wurde, gibt Gelegenheit, über allfällige Verbesserungen des regulatorischen Umfelds nachzudenken, die helfen sollen, die Effizienz des organisierten Kapitalmarkts weiter zu steigern und das Vertrauen der Anleger in das ordnungsgemäße Funktionieren des Markts zu festigen. Die Deutsche Börse hat mit Verbesserungen des Regelwerks Neuer Markt bereits wichtige Schritte in diese Richtung unternommen.