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he predictive likelihood is of particular relevance in a Bayesian setting when the purpose is to rank models in a forecast comparison exercise. This paper discusses how the predictive likelihood can be estimated for any subset of the observable variables in linear Gaussian state-space models with Bayesian methods, and proposes to utilize a missing observations consistent Kalman filter in the process of achieving this objective. As an empirical application, we analyze euro area data and compare the density forecast performance of a DSGE model to DSGE-VARs and reduced-form linear Gaussian models.
We use data from the 2009 Internet Survey of the Health and Retirement Study to examine the consumption impact of wealth shocks and unemployment during the Great Recession in the US. We find that many households experienced large capital losses in housing and in their financial portfolios, and that a non-trivial fraction of respondents have lost their job. As a consequence of these shocks, many households reduced substantially their expenditures. We estimate that the marginal propensities to consume with respect to housing and financial wealth are 1 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition, those who became unemployed reduced spending by 10 percent. We also distinguish the effect of perceived transitory and permanent wealth shocks, splitting the sample between households who think that the stock market is likely to recover in a year’s time, and those who do not. In line with the predictions of standard models of intertemporal choice, we find that the latter group adjusted much more than the former its spending in response to financial wealth shocks.
Using data from the US Health and Retirement Study, we study the causal effect of increased health insurance coverage through Medicare and the associated reduction in health-related background risk on financial risk-taking. Given the onset of Medicare at age 65, we identify our effect of interest using a regression discontinuity approach. We find that getting Medicare coverage induces stockholding for those with at least some college education, but not for their less-educated counterparts. Hence, our results indicate that a reduction in background risk induces financial risk-taking in individuals for whom informational and pecuniary stock market participation costs are relatively low.
Das hethitische Phonem /xw/
(2014)
In the Hittite phonological system there was a labialized velar fricative /xw/ beside the plain velar fricative /x/ parallel to the opposition between the velar stops /kw/ and /k/. The frequent syllable /xwa/ was spelled either hu-(u) or hu-wa. Evidence from the frequency of words with initial hu in the lexicon, from spelling variations and from ablaut alternations is presented to demonstrate the existence of /xw/. It is suggested that Hittite /xw/ regularly corresponds to the reflexes of *w in the non-Anatolian Indo-European languages.
In der Pandemie hört die Gesundheit auf, Privatsache zu sein: Aufgrund der kollektiven Gefährdung der Bevölkerung wird sie zu einem öffentlichen Gut, das unter die Schutzverantwortung des Staates und nicht mehr allein unter die Selbstverantwortung des Individuums fällt, ja fallen darf. Pandemieereignisse können die Aufrechterhaltung der öffentlichen Sicherheit und Ordnung massiv in Frage stellen. Die jedes Mal vorhandene wissenschaftliche Unsicherheit bei neu auftretenden und unbekannten Erregern können Gesellschaften – Experten, Laien und die Politik – in Angst und Schrecken versetzen und zu heftigen Reaktionen zur Gefahrenabwehr in der Sicherheitspolitik führen. Pandemien fordern somit 'den Staat' in seinen Kernwerten heraus; es ist der klassische Konflikt zwischen Sicherheit und Freiheit. Das empirische Beispiel dieses Beitrags untersucht den politische Diskurs über den 'richtigen' Umgang mit dem HI-Virus (Human Immunodeficiency Virus oder HIV) in den 1980er Jahren in der Bundesrepublik. Dass sich dieser Diskurs letztendlich zugunsten der moderateren Position verlagert hat und eine Versicherheitlichung von AIDS (Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome) vermieden werden konnte, ist vor allem der institutionellen Gewaltenverschränkung sowie der demokratischen Debatte um die Krankheit geschuldet, in der die Notwendigkeit der Schutzmaßnahmen öffentlich begründet und damit deren Sinnhaftigkeit trotz der vorherrschenden gesellschaftlichen Ängste rational hinterfragt und institutionell eingehegt – also entsicherheitlicht – werden konnte.
The papers in this volume take up some aspects of the preverbal domain(s) in Bantu languages. They were originally presented at the Workshop BantuSynPhonIS: Preverbal Domain(s), held at the Center for General Linguistics (ZAS), in Berlin, on 14-15 November 2014. This workshop was coorganized by ZAS (Fatima Hamlaoui & Tonjes Veenstra) and the Humboldt University (Tom Güldemann, Yukiko Morimoto and Ines Fiedler).
Noumenal Power
(2014)
In political or social philosophy, we speak about power all the time. Yet the meaning of this important concept is rarely made explicit, especially in the context of normative discussions. But as with many other concepts, once one considers it more closely, fundamental problems arise, such as whether a power relation is necessarily a relation of subordination and domination. In the following, I suggest a novel understanding of what power is and what it means to exercise it.
Die Untersuchung wurde im Lichte der aktuellen Diskussion um die Grundlagenkrise der Juristenausbildung durchgeführt. Hierbei wird der Anspruch erhoben, die Perspektive von Promotionsstudierenden ebenfalls zu berücksichtigen. Mit einer rechtsmethodologischen Herangehensweise wird nämlich nachgewiesen, dass die analoge (bzw. entsprechende) Anwendung des § 770 Abs. 1 BGB auf sonstige Gestaltungsrechte mit dem Willen des Gesetzgebers nicht übereinstimmt. Die Konsequenzen der Ablehnung der Anwendbarkeit des § 770 Abs. 1 BGB auf sonstige Gestaltungsrechte werden ebenso besprochen wie Wertungs- und Theoriefragen in diesem Zusammenhang. Aus dieser „methodenehrlichen“ Anwendung des § 770 Abs. 1 BGB und den sich hieraus ergebenden Konsequenzen werden sodann Schlussfolgerungen für die Stärkung der Grundlagenfächer gezogen.
Arzneimittelrückstände lassen sich heute in nahezu allen Gewässern nachweisen. Die Konzentrationen sind sehr gering; dennoch werden Risiken für die Umwelt und die Menschen vermutet. Daher ist zu klären, ob und wie es möglich ist, in Verfolgung des Vorsorgegedankens ihren Eintrag in die aquatische Umwelt möglichst zu verhindern oder zumindest zu reduzieren. Hierzu bieten sich umwelttechnische und gesundheitspolitische Maßnahmen sowie innovative Ansätze in der Arzneimittelentwicklung an.
Im Rahmen des BMBF-Projekts „SAUBER+ Innovative Konzepte und Technologien für die separate Behandlung von Abwasser aus Einrichtungen des Gesundheitswesens“ sind im Austausch mit Praxisakteuren zwei Zukunftsszenarien entstanden. Diese beschreiben von heute bis zum Jahr 2030 wie Maßnahmen in den genannten Handlungsfeldern umgesetzt und miteinander kombiniert werden können. Das erste Szenario ist eine Fortführung der bisherigen Entwicklungen. Im zweiten wird hingegen davon ausgegangen, dass sich die Bundesregierung einer sektor-übergreifenden Nachhaltigkeitspolitik verpflichtet und sich auf diese Weise die Einträge in die aquatische Umwelt auf ein Minimum reduzieren lassen.
Medieninhaltsanalyse zu anthropogenen Spurenstoffen im Wasser : Ergebnisse aus dem Projekt TransRisk
(2014)
Im Projekt TransRisk erstellt das ISOE in Zusammenarbeit mit der Deutschen Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser und Abfall (DWA) und der TU-Dresden ein Kommunikationskonzept zur Reduzierung von anthropogenen Spurenstoffen im Wasserkreislauf für die allgemeine Bevölkerung. Hierfür hat das ISOE als Vorarbeit eine Medieninhaltsanalyse von Zeitungsartikeln durchgeführt. Es ging dabei um die Frage, wie das Thema anthropogene Spurenstoffe bisher in der Presse behandelt worden ist. In diesem Studientext werden die Ergebnisse der Medienanalyse vorgestellt. Sie zeigen, dass die Berichterstattung zu anthropogenen Spurenstoffen im Wasserkreislauf in der Regel sachlich ist und nur selten reißerisch oder verharmlosend. Von der Vielzahl an Spurenstoffen stehen Medikamentenreste und Hormone im Mittelpunkt. Konkretes Handlungswissen für Verbraucher wird eher selten vermittelt. Eine zukünftige Kommunikationsstrategie zu anthropogenen Spurenstoffen im Wasserkreislauf sollte daher auf die Vermittlung von solidem Handlungswissen zielen. Weiter lässt sich aus den Ergebnissen ableiten, dass insbesondere bei Spurenstoffen, die nicht aus Medikamenten stammen, zunächst einmal Problembewusstsein geschaffen werden muss.