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When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901–2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971–2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. These simulation results support the need for extended Q measurements and data sharing for better constraining global water balance assessments. Over the 20th century, the human footprint on natural water resources has become larger. For 11–18% of the global land area, the change of Q between 1941–1970 and 1971–2000 was driven more strongly by change of human water use including dam construction than by change in precipitation, while this was true for only 9–13 % of the land area from 1911–1940 to 1941–1970.
When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know the methodological uncertainties in the water resources estimates. The study presented here quantifies effects of the uncertainty in the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological variables on water balance components at the global, continental and grid cell scale by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISI-MIP 2.1) with five state-of-the-art climate forcing input data-sets. While global precipitation over land during 1971–2000 varies between 103 500 and 111 000 km3 yr−1, global river discharge varies between 39 200 and 42 200 km3 yr−1. Temporal trends of global wa- ter balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing (except human water abstractions), and there is a need for temporal homogenization of climate forcings (in particular WFD/WFDEI). On about 10–20 % of the global land area, change of river discharge between two consecutive 30 year periods was driven more strongly by changes of human water use including dam construction than by changes in precipitation. This number increases towards the end of the 20th century due to intensified human water use and dam construction. The calibration approach of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated river discharge significantly. Different homgeneous climate forcings lead to a variation of Q of only 1.6 % for the 54 % of global land area that are constrained by discharge observations, while estimated renewable water resources in the remaining uncalibrated regions vary by 18.5 %. Uncertainties are especially high in Southeast Asia where Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) data availability is very sparse. By sharing already available discharge data, or installing new streamflow gauging stations in such regions, water balance uncertainties could be reduced which would lead to an improved assessment of the world’s water resources.
New particle formation driven by acid–base chemistry was initiated in the CLOUD chamber at CERN by introducing atmospherically relevant levels of gas-phase sulfuric acid and dimethylamine (DMA). Ammonia was also present in the chamber as a gas-phase contaminant from earlier experiments. The composition of particles with volume median diameters (VMDs) as small as 10 nm was measured by the Thermal Desorption Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (TDCIMS). Particulate ammonium-to-dimethylaminium ratios were higher than the gas-phase ammonia-to-DMA ratios, suggesting preferential uptake of ammonia over DMA for the collected 10–30 nm VMD particles. This behavior is not consistent with present nanoparticle physicochemical models, which predict a higher dimethylaminium fraction when NH3 and DMA are present at similar gas-phase concentrations. Despite the presence in the gas phase of at least 100 times higher base concentrations than sulfuric acid, the recently formed particles always had measured base : acid ratios lower than 1 : 1. The lowest base fractions were found in particles below 15 nm VMD, with a strong size-dependent composition gradient. The reasons for the very acidic composition remain uncertain, but a plausible explanation is that the particles did not reach thermodynamic equilibrium with respect to the bases due to rapid heterogeneous conversion of SO2 to sulfate. These results indicate that sulfuric acid does not require stabilization by ammonium or dimethylaminium as acid–base pairs in particles as small as 10 nm.
New particle formation driven by acid-base chemistry was initiated in the CLOUD chamber at CERN by introducing atmospherically relevant levels of gas phase sulfuric acid and dimethylamine (DMA). Ammonia was also present in the chamber as a gas-phase contaminant from earlier experiments. The composition of particles with volume median diameters (VMDs) as small as 10 nm was measured by the Thermal Desorption Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (TDCIMS). Particulate ammonium-to-dimethylaminium ratios were higher than the gas phase ammonia-to-DMA ratios, suggesting preferential uptake of ammonia over DMA for the collected 10-30 nm VMD particles. This behavior is not consistent with present nanoparticle physico-chemical models, which predict a higher dimethylaminium fraction when NH3 and DMA are present at similar gas phase concentrations. Despite the presence in the gas phase of at least 100 times higher base concentrations than sulfuric acid, the recently formed particles always had measured base:acid ratios lower than 1:1. The lowest base fractions were found in particles below 15 nm VMD, with a strong size-dependent composition gradient that suggests a change to a mixed-phase state as the particles grew beyond this size. The reasons for the very acidic composition remain uncertain, but a possible explanation is that the particles did not reach thermodynamic equilibrium with respect to the bases due to rapid heterogeneous conversion of SO2 to sulfate. These results indicate that sulfuric acid does not require stabilization by ammonium or dimethylaminium as acid-base pairs in particles as small as 10 nm.
The CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) passenger aircraft observatory performed in situ measurements at 10–12 km altitude in the South Asian summer monsoon anticyclone between June and September 2008. These measurements enable us to investigate this atmospheric region (which so far has mostly been observed from satellites) using the broad suite of trace gases and aerosol particles measured by CARIBIC. Elevated levels of a variety of atmospheric pollutants (e.g. carbon monoxide, total reactive nitrogen oxides, aerosol particles, and several volatile organic compounds) were recorded. The measurements provide detailed information about the chemical composition of air in different parts of the monsoon anticyclone, particularly of ozone precursors. While covering a range of 3500 km inside the monsoon anticyclone, CARIBIC observations show remarkable consistency, i.e. with distinct latitudinal patterns of trace gases during the entire monsoon period.
Using the CARIBIC trace gas and aerosol particle measurements in combination with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, we investigated the characteristics of monsoon outflow and the chemical evolution of air masses during transport. The trajectory calculations indicate that these air masses originated mainly from South Asia and mainland Southeast Asia. Estimated photochemical ages of the air were found to agree well with transport times from a source region east of 90–95° E. The photochemical ages of the air in the southern part of the monsoon anticyclone were systematically younger (less than 7 days) and the air masses were mostly in an ozone-forming chemical mode. In its northern part the air masses were older (up to 13 days) and had unclear ozone formation or destruction potential. Based on analysis of forward trajectories, several receptor regions were identified. In addition to predominantly westward transport, we found evidence for efficient transport (within 10 days) to the Pacific and North America, particularly during June and September, and also of cross-tropopause exchange, which was strongest during June and July. Westward transport to Africa and further to the Mediterranean was the main pathway during July.
Melt segregation inside the earth consists of two different processes: 1) Generation of partially molten rock and 2) separation of melt, produced from partially molten rock, from the solid residual matrix. This thesis focuses on the later process. The 2 phase flow dynamics combines the study of flow dynamics of melt and matrix. Several studies have given the background theoretical frameworks for the flow dynamics of melt inside the earth. [McKenzie, 1984] summarizes the studies of [Ahern and Turcotte, 1979; Frank, 1968; Sleep, 1975] and gives a complete set of governing equations for the 2-phase flow problem.
[Bercovici et al., 2001] gives a general formulation considering the univariate system of equations related to matrix and melt flow which includes the interfacial surface force. The assumption of melt having negligible viscosity compare to the matrix has been abandoned. Therefore, based on these formulations, we have constructed our numerical model and thereafter a fortran code PERCOL2D to get an insight of melt percolation process through porous media. Additionally, we have used the Helmhotz decomposition, which splits a smooth and rapidly decaying vector field into an irrotational vector field and an incompressible vector field [Srámek, 2007], for matrix and fluid viscosity in order to lower the number of linearly independent variables to minimize the computational complications. The melt residing at inter-granular areas of lithosphere, forms an interconnected network even at low porosity. Therefore, being less dense than the matrix, melt moves up through porous media due to its buoyancy. Compaction of matrix, which occurs to compensate the melt separation, is considered in this thesis, where the effective bulk and shear viscosity of matrix are function of melt fraction. We have effective bulk viscosity of matrix as inversely proportional to melt fraction. Porosity dependence of effective bulk and shear viscosity leads to stronger melt focusing in highly porous region like mid ocean ridges [Katz, 2008] since the ratio of bulk and shear viscosity is smaller (< 10) than the constant viscosity case for the porous waves having non dimensional amplitude 5% or higher. Moreover, it is observed in [Richard et al., 2012] that the solitary wave formed in porosity dependent viscous matrix settings are steeper than the one formed in the constant matrix viscosity setting.
Firstly some 1D numerical experiments with PERCOL2D have been carried out using fixed and periodic boundary conditions for zero source term (i.e. no melting or no freezing) and negligible surface tension.
3 series of model setups with different initial conditions have been carried out varying the width, non-dimensional amplitude and the background porosity value of the initial input of porous wave.
A mathematical derivation for 1D solitary wave solution for the two phase flow through porosity dependent compacting media, is obtained in this thesis which is different than the study of [Barcilon and Lovera, 1989; Barcilon and Richter, 1986; Scott and Stevenson, 1984; Spiegelman, 1993a,b] as the effective viscosity of matrix is constant there.
Although [Simpson and Spiegelman, 2011] gives the solitary wave solutions in 1D, 2D and 3D considering the porosity dependent effective viscosity of the matrix, but using the small background porosity approximation, they neglect the background porosity (i.e φ0) and therefore the effect of variation of compaction lengths, which causes variation in the shape and dynamics of the solitary wave. Therefore, the study [This thesis, Richard et al., 2012] can be used for more general purpose. Solitary waves in varying viscous medium, are steeper (cf fig.5.1) compared to the one in constant viscous medium and their speed decreases as an inverse function of the background porosity. Additionally, this analytical solution is used in our code PERCOL2D and also in FDCON for numerical benchmarking (1D) of PERCOL2D.
The role of melt grain contiguity is considered in the revised viscosity formulation [Schmeling et al., 2012] based on elastic moduli theory of a fluid filled poro-elastic medium. This formulation is used in this thesis to produce a comparative dispersion relationship between speed of the wave and the non dimensional amplitude of porous wave, based on both the viscosity formulations (fig. 6.20) where one can see that the model based on [Bercovici et al., 2001] formulation, converges to the same dispersion relationship obtained from [Simpson and Spiegelman, 2011]. Whereas, the dispersion relationship using [Schmeling et al., 2012] formulations, shows time-dependent decrease of phase velocity with increasing amplitude and it is not yet clear that whether these solutions converge to steady state porosity waves before the porosity becomes 1.
Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.
Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. A large variety of models exist today and it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project - FireMIP, an international project to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we summarise the current state-of-the-art in fire regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.
This study reports and discusses new radiometric ages, petrographical and volcanological observations and whole rock geochemical data of the rocks of the Rudnik Mts. volcano-intrusive complex. The complex hosts a Pb-Zn-Ag deposit and belongs to the Serbo-Macedonian metallogenetic belt. Two distinct igneous events are distignuished. The first occurred >30 Ma and was mainly characterized by extrusive and shallow intrusive dacites and andesites and was unrelated to mineralization. The second igneous event occurred <23 Ma and was highly heterogeneous in terms of volcanic products and petrographic varieties, but with predominance of quartzlatites. The dacite-andesites (first event) and the quartzlatites (second event) are geochemically similar and display a calc-alkaline affinity and highly incompatible element enriched patterns on spider diagrams, but the younger quartzlatites are richer in K2O, Rb and Ba and poorer in Sr. This is taken as evidence that mixing between an ultrapotassic lamprophyre/lamproite magma and an acid calc-alkaline (dacite-like) magma was essential petrogenetic processes during the second event. The proposed simplified volcanological model suggests that this mixing was responsible for triggering strongly explosive volcanic activity as well as for providing conditions for active hydrothermal and mineralization processes. The observed link between a specific magmatic phase and ore deposit formation can be a general phennomenon in the Balkans, and must be addressed by further and more advanced studies.
About half of present-day cloud condensation nuclei originate from atmospheric nucleation, frequently appearing as a burst of new particles near midday1. Atmospheric observations show that the growth rate of new particles often accelerates when the diameter of the particles is between one and ten nanometres2,3. In this critical size range, new particles are most likely to be lost by coagulation with pre-existing particles4, thereby failing to form new cloud condensation nuclei that are typically 50 to 100 nanometres across. Sulfuric acid vapour is often involved in nucleation but is too scarce to explain most subsequent growth5,6, leaving organic vapours as the most plausible alternative, at least in the planetary boundary layer7,8,9,10. Although recent studies11,12,13 predict that low-volatility organic vapours contribute during initial growth, direct evidence has been lacking. The accelerating growth may result from increased photolytic production of condensable organic species in the afternoon2, and the presence of a possible Kelvin (curvature) effect, which inhibits organic vapour condensation on the smallest particles (the nano-Köhler theory)2,14, has so far remained ambiguous. Here we present experiments performed in a large chamber under atmospheric conditions that investigate the role of organic vapours in the initial growth of nucleated organic particles in the absence of inorganic acids and bases such as sulfuric acid or ammonia and amines, respectively. Using data from the same set of experiments, it has been shown15 that organic vapours alone can drive nucleation. We focus on the growth of nucleated particles and find that the organic vapours that drive initial growth have extremely low volatilities (saturation concentration less than 10−4.5 micrograms per cubic metre). As the particles increase in size and the Kelvin barrier falls, subsequent growth is primarily due to more abundant organic vapours of slightly higher volatility (saturation concentrations of 10−4.5 to 10−0.5 micrograms per cubic metre). We present a particle growth model that quantitatively reproduces our measurements. Furthermore, we implement a parameterization of the first steps of growth in a global aerosol model and find that concentrations of atmospheric cloud concentration nuclei can change substantially in response, that is, by up to 50 per cent in comparison with previously assumed growth rate parameterizations.