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A twentieth century-long coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate simulation with COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling, Climate Limited-area Model) and NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) is studied here to evaluate the added value of coupled marginal seas over continental regions. The interactive coupling of the marginal seas, namely the Mediterranean, the North and the Baltic Seas, to the atmosphere in the European region gives a comprehensive modelling system. It is expected to be able to describe the climatological features of this geographically complex area even more precisely than an atmosphere-only climate model. The investigated variables are precipitation and 2 m temperature. Sensitivity studies are used to assess the impact of SST (sea surface temperature) changes over land areas. The different SST values affect the continental precipitation more than the 2 m temperature. The simulated variables are compared to the CRU (Climatic Research Unit) observational data, and also to the HOAPS/GPCC (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) data. In the coupled simulation, added skill is found primarily during winter over the eastern part of Europe. Our analysis shows that, over this region, the coupled system is dryer than the uncoupled system, both in terms of precipitation and soil moisture, which means a decrease in the bias of the system. Thus, the coupling improves the simulation of precipitation over the eastern part of Europe, due to cooler SST values and in consequence, drier soil.
Natural history collections are fundamental for biodiversity research as well as for any applied environment-related research. These collections can be seen as archives of earth´s life providing the basis to address highly relevant scientific questions such as how biodiversity changes in certain environments, either through evolutionary processes in a geological timescale, or by man-made transformation of habitats throughout the last decades and/or centuries. A prominent example is the decline of the European flat oyster Ostrea edulis Linneaus, 1758 in the North Sea and the concomitant invasion of the common limpet slipper Crepidula fornicata, which has been implicated to have negative effects on O. edulis. We used collections to analyse population changes in both species in the North Sea. In order to reconstruct the change in distribution and diversity over the past 200 years, we combined the temporal and spatial information recorded with the collected specimens contained in several European natural history collections. Our data recover the decline of O. edulis in the North Sea from the 19th century to the present and the process of invasion of C. fornicata. Importantly, the decline of O. edulis was nearly completed before C. fornicata appeared in the North Sea, suggesting that the latter had nothing to do with the local extinction of O. edulis in the North Sea.
Within the last decades, western democracies have experienced a rise of inequality, with the gap between lower and upper class citizens steadily increasing and a widespread sentiment of growing inequalities also in the political sphere. Against this background, and in the context of the current “crisis of democracy”, democratic innovations such as direct democratic instruments are discussed as a very popular means to bring citizens back in. However, research on direct democracy has produced rather inconsistent results with regard to the question of which effects referenda and initiatives have on equality. Studies in this field are often limited to single countries and certain aspects of equality. Moreover, most existing studies look at the mere availability of direct democratic instruments instead of actual bills that are put to a vote. This paper aims to take a first step to fill these gaps by giving an explorative overview of the outputs of direct democratic bills on multiple equality dimensions, analyzing all national referenda and initiatives in European democracies between 1990 and 2015. How many pro- and contra-equality bills have been put to a vote, how many of those succeeded at the ballot, and are there differences between country groups? Our findings show that a majority of direct democratic bills was not related to equality at all. Regarding the successful bills, we detect some regional differences along with the general tendency that there are more pro- than contra-equality bills. Our paper sheds new light on the question if direct democracy can serve as an appropriate means to complement representative democracy and to shape democratic institutions in the future. The potential of direct democracy in fostering or impeding equality should be an important criterion for the assessment of claims to extend decision-making by citizens.
Despite the popularity of direct democracy in recent decades, research on the actual output effects of popular decision-making is rare. This is especially true with regard to equality, where there are at least three major research gaps: 1) a lack of cross-national analyses; 2) insufficient investigation of the differential effects of different direct democratic instruments on equality; and 3) a failure to distinguish between different aspects of equality, i.e., socioeconomic, legal and political equality. This article takes a first step to tackle these shortcomings by looking at all national referenda in European democracies between 1990 and 2015, differentiating between mandatory, bottom-up and top-down referenda. We find that a large majority of successful direct democratic bills—regardless of which instrument is employed—are not related to equality issues. Of the remaining ones, there are generally more successful pro-equality bills than contra-equality ones, but the differences are rather marginal. Mandatory referenda tend to produce pro-equality outputs, but no clear patterns emerge for bottom-up and top-down referenda. Our results offer interesting, preliminary insights to the current debate on direct democracy, pointing to the conclusion that popular decision-making via any type of direct democratic instrument is neither curse nor blessing with regard to equality. Instead, it is necessary to look at other factors such as context conditions or possible indirect effects in order to get a clearer picture of the impacts of direct democracy on equality.
Uncertainty is a central theme in the illness experiences of older cancer patients throughout their illness trajectory. Mishel’s popular theory on uncertainty during illness approaches uncertainty as an outcome and is characterized by the patient’s inability to find meaning in illness events. This study used the concepts of liminality and subjunctivity to explore uncertainty throughout the illness trajectory of cancer patients. We interviewed 18 older (age range = 57–92 years) patients with breast cancer or gastro-intestinal cancer 3 to 4 years post diagnosis. Our analysis is based on the QUAGOL guide that draws on elements of grounded theory such as constant comparison. We found that liminality and subjunctivity provide a useful frame for understanding uncertainty with a specific focus on its productive potential and meaning making. Health care professionals should be open to acquiring a complete picture of patients’ diverse and dynamic experiences of uncertainty in the different stages of their illness trajectory.