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Nepal is highly vulnerable to global climate change, despite its negligible emission of global greenhouse gases. The vulnerable climate-sensitive sectors identified in Nepal's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change 2010 include agriculture, forestry, water, energy, public health, urbanization and infrastructure, and climate-induced disasters. In addition, analyses carried out as part of the NAPA process have indicated that the impacts of climate change in Nepal are not gender neutral. Vector-borne diseases, diarrhoeal diseases including cholera, malnutrition, cardiorespiratory diseases, psychological stress, and health effects and injuries related to extreme weather are major climate-sensitive health risks in the country. In recent years, research has been done in Nepal in order to understand the changing epidemiology of diseases and generate evidence for decision-making. Based on this evidence, the experience of programme managers, and regular surveillance data, the Government of Nepal has mainstreamed issues related to climate change in development plans, policies and programmes. In particular, the Government of Nepal has addressed climate-sensitive health risks. In addition to the NAPA report, several policy documents have been launched, including the Climate Change Policy 2011; the Nepal Health Sector Programme – Implementation Plan II (NHSP-IP 2) 2010–2015; the National Health Policy 2014; the National Health Sector Strategy 2015–2020 and its implementation plan (2016–2021); and the Health National Adaptation Plan (H-NAP): climate change and health strategy and action plan (2016–2020). However, the translation of these policies and plans of action into tangible action on the ground is still in its infancy in Nepal. Despite this, the health sector's response to addressing the impact of climate change in Nepal may be taken as a good example for other low- and middle-income countries.
Intense direct and indirect human pressure has been imposed on grasslands throughout their range. Mostly due to the constant need for more food production or due to changes in environmental conditions, grasslands as habitats are expected to become highly endangered. The aim of this study was to estimate the grasslands’ ecological response to future climate and environmental changes. The study took place in three ecologically different grassland communities in three protected natural areas of Serbia (Southeastern Europe), following the same methodology. The study sites were: 1) Peštersko polje Special Nature Reserve (SNR), 2) Deliblato sands SNR (its southern part: Labudovo okno) and 3) Zasavica SNR.
Climate change was simulated for mean temperatures and precipitations using the Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) climate model, for the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario covering the 1951–2100 period and insolation and volumetric soil moisture content for the 1979–2100 period. Grassland vegetation was analysed at all three sites. One representative plant community per site was selected for further analysis and simulation of ecological changes. One plot was positioned inside each of the above-mentioned communities, all vascular plant species inside the plot were recorded, and soil samples were taken. Ecological Optima (EO) for moisture and temperature were calculated from modified Ellenberg’s plant indicator values of recorded species. The plants’ response to climate and environmental changes was simulated using the VSD+ model for the 2010–2100 period. The data obtained from the model were further analysed with Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA).
Overall results show that the temperature rise, along with the irregular precipitation at all three sites, will lead to a drop of the relative abundance of many native species in the period between 2040 and 2060. The low obtained Habitat Suitability Index for the future means that there will be either unfavourable environmental conditions for the development of grasslands, or the species we analysed were untypical. Cosmopolitans and xerothermic species will be more accustomed to the new conditions. Grasses will be the most resilient functional group according to our study. It may be concluded that the functional group of grasses will also play the leading role in future
grasslands at the studied sites.
The Earth's future depends on how we manage the manifold risks of climate change (CC). It is state-of-the-art to assume that risk reduction requires participatory management involving a broad range of stakeholders and scientists. However, there is still little knowledge about the optimal design of participatory climate change risk management processes (PRMPs), in particular with respect to considering the multitude of substantial uncertainties that are relevant for PRMPs. To support the many local to regional PRMPs that are necessary for a successful global-scale reduction of CC risks, we present a roadmap for designing such transdisciplinary knowledge integration processes. The roadmap suggests ways in which uncertainties can be comprehensively addressed within a PRMP. We discuss the concept of CC risks and their management and propose an uncertainty framework that distinguishes epistemic, ontological, and linguistic uncertainty as well as ambiguity. Uncertainties relevant for CC risk management are identified. Communicative and modeling methods that support social learning as well as the development of risk management strategies are proposed for each of six phases of a PRMP. Finally, we recommend how to evaluate PRMPs as such evaluations and their publication are paramount for achieving a reduction of CC risks.
In Borstgrasrasen (Nardetalia) des Werra-Meißner-Gebietes (Nordhessen, Südniedersachsen) wurden 2012 nach 25 Jahren auf möglichst gleichen Untersuchungsflächen (quasi-Dauerflächen) Wiederholungsaufnahmen angefertigt, um den gegenwärtigen Zustand bzw. Veränderungen in diesem prioritären FFH-Lebensraumtyp zu erfassen. Es wurden insgesamt 61 Flächen untersucht. Neben der Artenzusammensetzung wurden auch Bodenparameter (pH, C/N-Verhältnis, Mächtigkeit der organischen Auflage) und die Nutzung erfasst.
Bei der Wiederholungsaufnahme 2012 waren, abgesehen von einer Aufforstungsfläche, noch auf allen Flächen Arten der Borstgrasrasen vorhanden. Die Flächen wurden 2012 überwiegend genutzt oder gepflegt, während 1986/87 Brachflächen noch bei weitem dominierten. Eine Düngung der Flächen erfolgte nicht. Trotz dieser generell günstigen Nutzungssituation lässt sich ein genereller Trend zur Eutrophierung feststellen, der sich hinsichtlich Artenzahl und Deckung in einer Zunahme von Arten des Wirtschaftsgrünlandes (Molinio-Arrhenatheretea) bei gleichzeitiger Abnahme der Borstgrasrasen-Kennarten äußert. Auch die Artenzahlen der übrigen Magerkeitszeiger nahmen im Mittel ab, während Verbrachungszeiger im Allgemeinen zunahmen. Eine Veränderung der Gesamtartenzahl war nicht festzustellen. Die mittleren Zeigerwerte spiegeln die Verschiebungen im Arteninventar durch erhöhte mittlere Reaktions- und Stickstoffzahlen wider. Strukturell hat in den vergangenen 25 Jahren vor allem eine generelle Zunahme der Moosschichtdeckung und eine Ausbreitung der Sträucher auf Brachflächen stattgefunden. Bei den Bodenparametern waren 2012 eine signifikante Erhöhung der pH-Werte, eine Einengung der C/N-Verhältnisse und eine Abnahme der Mächtigkeit der organischen Auflage (Of) feststellbar. Regressionsmodelle zeigen, dass dabei die Zunahme von Arten des Wirtschaftsgrünlandes direkt mit den ansteigenden pH-Werten zusammen hing, während die Veränderungen bei den Kennarten eher vom Ausgangs-C/N-Verhältnis, teilweise auch von der Entwicklung der organischen Auflage und der Nutzung abhängig waren. Die vorgefundenen Veränderungen werden vor dem Hintergrund möglicher Gefährdungsszenarien (Brache, Eutrophierung, Bodenversauerung, Klimawandel) diskutiert. Angesichts des unerwarteten Befundes einer Eutrophierung bei gleichzeitig nachlassender Bodenversauerung, wird die Hypothese aufgestellt, dass der seit den 1990er-Jahren erfolgte Rückgang der Schwefeldepositionen mit nachfolgender Erholung der Boden-pH-Werte und nachlassender Stressbelastung, z. B. durch Ammonium-Toxizität, die Veränderungen ausgelöst haben könnte. Außerdem deuten die Ergebnisse auf eine zumindest teilweise zu geringe Nutzungs- bzw. Pflegeintensität bzw. zu späte Nutzungstermine. Möglicherweise führt der erhöhte Eutrophierungsdruck hier auch zu verstärkten Anforderungen an das Management der Flächen. Eindeutige Indizien für klimabedingte Veränderungen im Arteninventar ließen sich nicht finden. Indirekte Effekte über eine erwärmungsbedingte Förderung der Mineralisationsraten oder ein ursächlicher Zusammenhang zwischen höheren Wintertemperaturen und der Zunahme der Moosdeckung lassen sich jedoch nicht ausschließen.
Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.