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Economic globalization depends on the movement of people and goods between countries. As these exchanges increase, so does the potential for translocation of harmful pests, weeds, and pathogens capable of impacting our crops, livestock and natural resources (Hulme 2009), with concomitant impacts on global food security (Cook et al. 2011).
Representing uncertainty in a spatial invasion model that incorporates human-mediated dispersal
(2013)
Most modes of human-mediated dispersal of invasive species are directional and vector-based. Classical spatial spread models usually depend on probabilistic dispersal kernels that emphasize distance over direction and have limited ability to depict rare but influential long-distance dispersal events. These aspects are problematic if such models are used to estimate invasion risk. Alternatively, a geographic network model may be better at estimating the typically low likelihoods associated with human-mediated dispersal events, but it should also provide a reasonable account of uncertainties that could affect perception of its risk estimates. We developed a network model that assesses the likelihood of dispersal of invasive forest pests in camper-transported firewood in North America. We built the model using data from the U.S. National Recreation Reservation Service, which document visitor travel between populated places and federal campgrounds across the U.S. and Canada. The study area is depicted as a set of coarse-resolution map units. Based on repeated simulations, the model estimates the probability that each unit is a possible origin and destination for firewood-facilitated forest pest invasions. We generated output maps that summarise, for each U.S. state and Canadian province, where (outside the state or province) a camper-transported forest pest likely originated. Treating these output maps as a set of baseline scenarios, we explored the sensitivity of these “origin risk” estimates to additive and multiplicative errors in the probabilities of pest transmission between locations, as well as random changes in the structure of the underlying travel network. We found the patterns of change in the origin risk estimates due to these alterations to be consistent across all states and provinces. This indicates that the network model behaves predictably in the presence of uncertainties, allowing future work to focus on closing knowledge gaps or more sophisticated treatments of the impact of uncertainty on model outputs.
Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker. We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion. While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decisionmaking preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and outreach activities, which can be costly. Our results are especially important and useful given the huge number of camping trips that occur each year in the United States and Canada.
Purpose: To assess the levels of inflammatory and angiogenic cytokines in undiluted vitreous from treatment-naïve patients with macular edema secondary to nonischemic branch retinal vein occlusion (BRVO), with flow cytometric bead array (CBA) and to correlate the results with subjective and multiple spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) parameters.
Methods: A total of 43 eyes from 43 patients (mean age 69.7 years, 23 male) were divided into groups of new, "fresh" (n = 28; mean duration after onset 4.1 months) and older BRVO (n = 15; 11.6 months). Because of macular edema, these patients underwent an intravitreal therapy combining a single-site 23 g core vitrectomy with bevacizumab and dexamethasone. Undiluted vitreous was then analyzed for interleukin-6 (IL-6), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and vascular endothelial growth factor isoform A (VEGF-A) levels with CBA and correlated with visual acuity (VA), clinical parameters of BRVO (type and perfusion status), and morphologic parameters, such as central macular thickness, central retinal thickness, thickness of the neurosensory retina, thickness of the serous retinal detachment, and the disruption of the ellipsoid line (photoreceptor inner and outer segments) and the external limiting membrane, as measured with SD-OCT. Twenty-eight undiluted vitreous samples from patients with idiopathic, nonuveitis vitreous floaters served as the controls.
Results: The mean IL-6 was 23.2 pg/mL (standard deviation, ±48.8), MCP-1 was 602.6 (±490.3), and VEGF-A was 161.8 (±314.3), and this was higher than in the control group, which had a mean IL-6 of 6.2 ± 3.4 pg/mL (P = 0.17), MCP-1 of 253.2 ± 73.5 (P < 0.0000001), and VEGF-A of 7.0 ± 4.9 (P < 0.003). In all BRVO samples, IL-6 correlated positively with MCP-1 and VEGF-A (correlation coefficient r = 0.79 and r = 0.46, respectively). VEGF-A was the only cytokine to correlate significantly with SD-OCT parameters (thickness of the neurosensory retina r = 0.31; disruption of the ellipsoid line r = 0.33). In the older BRVO group, there was a positive correlation between cytokines (IL-6 with MCP-1, r = 0.77; Il-6 with VEGF-A, r = 0.68; MCP-1 and VEGF-A, r = 0.68), whereas only IL-6 correlated with MCP-1 in the fresh group (r = 0.8).
Conclusion: The inflammatory markers and VEGF-A were elevated in the vitreous fluid of patients with BRVO, and these correlated with one another. VEGF-A was more often correlated with the morphologic changes assessed by SD-OCT, whereas the inflammatory markers had no significant influence on SD-OCT changes.
Purpose: To correlate inflammatory and proangiogenic key cytokines from undiluted vitreous of treatment-naïve central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO) patients with SD-OCT parameters.
Methods: Thirty-five patients (age 71.1 years, 24 phakic, 30 nonischemic) underwent intravitreal combination therapy, including a single-site 23-gauge core vitrectomy. Twenty-eight samples from patients with idiopathic, non-uveitis floaterectomy served as controls. Interleukin 6 (IL-6), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF-A) levels were correlated with the visual acuity (logMar), category of CRVO (ischemic or nonischemic) and morphologic parameters, such as central macular thickness-CMT, thickness of neurosensory retina-TNeuro, extent of serous retinal detachment-SRT and disintegrity of the IS/OS and others.
Results: The mean IL-6 was 64.7pg/ml (SD ± 115.8), MCP-1 1015.7 ( ± 970.1), and VEGF-A 278.4 ( ± 512.8), which was significantly higher than the control IL-6 6.2 ± 3.4pg/ml (P=0.06), MCP-1 253.2 ± 73.5 (P<0.0000001) and VEGF-A 7.0 ± 4.9 (P<0.0006). All cytokines correlated highly with one another (correlation coefficient r=0.82 for IL-6 and MCP-1; r=0.68 for Il-6 and VEGF-A; r=0.64 for MCP-1 and VEGF-A). IL-6 correlated significantly with CMT, TRT, SRT, dIS/OS, and dELM. MCP-1 correlated significantly with SRT, dIS/OS, and dELM. VEGF-A correlated not with changes in SD-OCT, while it had a trend to be higher in the ischemic versus the nonischemic CRVO group (P=0.09).
Conclusions: The inflammatory cytokines were more often correlated with morphologic changes assessed by SD-OCT, whereas VEGF-A did not correlate with CRVO-associated changes in SD-OCT. VEGF inhibition alone may not be sufficient in decreasing the inflammatory response in CRVO therapy.