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We analyze the repercussions of different kinds of uncertainty on cash demand, including uncertainty of the digital infrastructures, confidence crises of the financial system, natural disasters, political uncertainties, and inflationary crises. Based on a comprehensive literature survey, theoretical considerations and complemented by case studies, we derive a classification scheme how cash holdings typically evolve in each of these types of uncertainty by separating between demand for domestic and international cash as well as between transaction and store of value balances. Hereby, we focus on the stabilizing macroeconomic properties of cash and recommend guidelines for cash supply by central banks and the banking system. Finally, we exemplify our analysis with five case studies from the developing world, namely Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya.
The authors focus on the stabilizing role of cash from a society-wide perspective. Starting with conceptual remarks on the importance of money for the economy in general, special attention is paid to the unique characteristics of cash. As these become apparent especially during crisis periods, a comparison of the Great Depression (1929 – 1933) and the Great Recession 2008/09 shows the devastating effects of a severe monetary contraction and how a fully elastic provision of cash can help to avoid such a situation.
The authors find interesting similarities to both crises in two separate case studies, one on the demonetization in India 2016 and the other on cash supply during various crises in Greece since 2008. The paper concludes that supply-driven cash withdrawals from circulation (either by demonetization or by capital controls) destabilize the economy if electronic payment substitutes are not instantly available.
However, as there is no perfect substitute for cash due to its unique properties, from the viewpoint of the society as a whole an efficient payment mix necessarily includes cash: It helps to stabilize the economy not only in times of crises in general, no matter which government is in place. The authors argue that it should be the undisputed task of central banks to ensure that cash remains in circulation in normal times and is provided in a fully elastic way in times of crisis.
Low-to-moderate quality meta-analytic evidence shows that motor control stabilisation exercise (MCE) is an effective treatment of non-specific low back pain. A possible approach to overcome the weaknesses of traditional meta-analyses would be that of a prospective meta-analyses. The aim of the present analysis was to generate high-quality evidence to support the view that motor control stabilisation exercises (MCE) lead to a reduction in pain intensity and disability in non-specific low back pain patients when compared to a control group. In this prospective meta-analysis and sensitivity multilevel meta-regression within the MiSpEx-Network, 18 randomized controlled study arms were included. Participants with non-specific low back pain were allocated to an intervention (individualized MCE, 12 weeks) or a control group (no additive exercise intervention). From each study site/arm, outcomes at baseline, 3 weeks, 12 weeks, and 6 months were pooled. The outcomes were current pain (NRS or VAS, 11 points scale), characteristic pain intensity, and subjective disability. A random effects meta-analysis model for continuous outcomes to display standardized mean differences between intervention and control was performed, followed by sensitivity multilevel meta-regressions. Overall, 2391 patients were randomized; 1976 (3 weeks, short-term), 1740 (12 weeks, intermediate), and 1560 (6 months, sustainability) participants were included in the meta-analyses. In the short-term, intermediate and sustainability, moderate-to-high quality evidence indicated that MCE has a larger effect on current pain (SMD = −0.15, −0.15, −0.19), pain intensity (SMD = −0.19, −0.26, −0.26) and disability (SMD = −0.15, −0.27, −0.25) compared with no exercise intervention. Low-quality evidence suggested that those patients with comparably intermediate current pain and older patients may profit the most from MCE. Motor control stabilisation exercise is an effective treatment for non-specific low back pain. Sub-clinical intermediate pain and middle-aged patients may profit the most from this intervention.