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Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model employing a detailed individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics, to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one representative "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single-factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C–N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model as documented in previous studies using other global models. Under an RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics up to the present. However, during the 21st century, nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contrasts with previous results with other global models that have shown an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake relative to modern baseline conditions. Implications for the plausibility of earlier projections of future terrestrial C dynamics based on C-only models are discussed.
Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one exemplary "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C–N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model, as documented in previous studies. Under a RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics until present. However, during the 21st century nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contradicts earlier model results that showed an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake, questioning the often stated assumption that projections of future terrestrial C dynamics from C-only models are too optimistic.
In the present work, three different techniques are used to separate ice-nucleating particles (INP) and ice particle residuals (IPR) from non-ice-active particles: the Ice Selective Inlet (ISI) and the Ice Counterflow Virtual Impactor (Ice-CVI), which sample ice particles from mixed phase clouds and allow for the analysis of the residuals, as well as the combination of the Fast Ice Nucleus Chamber (FINCH) and the Ice Nuclei Pumped Virtual Impactor (IN-PCVI), which provides ice-activating conditions to aerosol particles and extracts the activated ones for analysis. The collected particles were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis to determine their size, chemical composition and mixing state. Samples were taken during January/February 2013 at the High Alpine Research Station Jungfraujoch. All INP/IPR-separating techniques had considerable abundances (median 20–70%) of contamination artifacts (ISI: Si-O spheres, probably calibration aerosol; Ice-CVI: Al-O particles; FINCH + IN-PCVI: steel particles). Also, potential measurement artifacts (soluble material) occurred (median abundance < 20%). After removal of the contamination particles, silicates and Ca-rich particles, carbonaceous material and metal oxides were the major INP/IPR particle types separated by all three techniques. Minor types include soot and Pb-bearing particles. Sea-salt and sulfates were identified by all three methods as INP/IPR. Lead was identified in less than 10% of the INP/IPR. It was mainly present as an internal mixture with other particle types, but also external lead-rich particles were found. Most samples showed a maximum of the INP/IPR size distribution at 400 nm geometric diameter. In a few cases, a second super-micron maximum was identified. Soot/carbonaceous material and metal oxides were present mainly in the submicron range. ISI and FINCH yielded silicates and Ca-rich particles mainly with diameters above 1 μm, while the Ice-CVI also sampled many submicron particles. Probably owing to the different meteorological conditions, the INP/IPR composition was highly variable on a sample to sample basis. Thus, some part of the discrepancies between the different techniques may result from the (unavoidable) non-parallel sampling. The observed differences of the particles group abundances as well as the mixing state of INP/IPR point to the need of further studies to better understand the influence of the separating techniques on the INP/IPR chemical composition.
Seven different instruments and measurement methods were used to examine the immersion freezing of bacterial ice nuclei from Snomax® (hereafter Snomax), a product containing ice active protein complexes from non-viable Pseudomonas syringae bacteria. The experimental conditions were kept as similar as possible for the different measurements. Of the participating instruments, some examined droplets which had been made from suspensions directly, and the others examined droplets activated on previously generated Snomax particles, with particle diameters of mostly a few hundred nanometers and up to a few micrometers in some cases. Data were obtained in the temperature range from −2 to −38 °C, and it was found that all ice active protein complexes were already activated above −12 °C. Droplets with different Snomax mass concentrations covering 10 orders of magnitude were examined. Some instruments had very short ice nucleation times down to below 1 s, while others had comparably slow cooling rates around 1 K min−1. Displaying data from the different instruments in terms of numbers of ice active protein complexes per dry mass of Snomax, nm, showed that within their uncertainty the data agree well with each other as well as to previously reported literature results. Two parameterizations were taken from literature for a direct comparison to our results, and these were a time dependent approach based on a contact angle distribution Niedermeier et al. (2014) and a modification of the parameterization presented in Hartmann et~al.~(2013) representing a time independent approach. The agreement between these and the measured data were good, i.e. they agreed within a temperature range of 0.6 K or equivalently a range in nm of a factor of 2. From the results presented herein, we propose that Snomax, at least when carefully shared and prepared, is a suitable material to test and compare different instruments for their accuracy of measuring immersion freezing.
Strong seasonal variability of hygric and thermal soil conditions are a defining environmental feature in Northern Australia. However, how such changes affect the soil–atmosphere exchange of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO) and dinitrogen (N2) is still 5 not well explored. By incubating intact soil cores from four sites (3 savanna, 1 pasture) under controlled soil temperatures (ST) and soil moisture (SM) we investigated the release of the trace gas fluxes of N2O, NO and carbon dioxide (CO2). Furthermore, the release of N2 due to denitrification was measured using the helium gas flow soil core technique. Under dry pre-incubation conditions NO and N2O emission were very low (< 7.0± 5.0 μgNO-Nm−2 h−1; < 0.0± 1.4 μgN2O-Nm−2 h−1) or in case of N2O, even a net soil uptake was observed. Substantial NO (max: 306.5 μgNm−2 h−1) and relatively small N2O pulse emissions (max: 5.8±5.0 μgNm−2 h−1) were recorded following soil wetting, but these pulses were short-lived, lasting only up to 3 days. The total atmospheric loss of nitrogen was dominated by N2 emissions (82.4–99.3% of total N lost), although NO emissions contributed almost 43.2% at 50% SM and 30 °C ST. N2O emissions were systematically higher for 3 of 12 sample locations, which indicates substantial spatial variability at site level, but on average soils acted as weak N2O sources or even sinks. Emissions were controlled by SM and ST for N2O and CO2, ST and pH for NO, and SM and pH for N2.
Strong seasonal variability of hygric and thermal soil conditions are a defining environmental feature in northern Australia. However, how such changes affect the soil–atmosphere exchange of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO) and dinitrogen (N2) is still not well explored. By incubating intact soil cores from four sites (three savanna, one pasture) under controlled soil temperatures (ST) and soil moisture (SM) we investigated the release of the trace gas fluxes of N2O, NO and carbon dioxide (CO2). Furthermore, the release of N2 due to denitrification was measured using the helium gas flow soil core technique. Under dry pre-incubation conditions NO and N2O emissions were very low (<7.0 ± 5.0 μg NO-N m−2 h−1; <0.0 ± 1.4 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1) or in the case of N2O, even a net soil uptake was observed. Substantial NO (max: 306.5 μg N m−2 h−1) and relatively small N2O pulse emissions (max: 5.8 ± 5.0 μg N m−2 h−1) were recorded following soil wetting, but these pulses were short lived, lasting only up to 3 days. The total atmospheric loss of nitrogen was generally dominated by N2 emissions (82.4–99.3% of total N lost), although NO emissions contributed almost 43.2% to the total atmospheric nitrogen loss at 50% SM and 30 °C ST incubation settings (the contribution of N2 at these soil conditions was only 53.2%). N2O emissions were systematically higher for 3 of 12 sample locations, which indicates substantial spatial variability at site level, but on average soils acted as weak N2O sources or even sinks. By using a conservative upscale approach we estimate total annual emissions from savanna soils to average 0.12 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (N2O), 0.68 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (NO) and 6.65 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (N2). The analysis of long-term SM and ST records makes it clear that extreme soil saturation that can lead to high N2O and N2 emissions only occurs a few days per year and thus has little impact on the annual total. The potential contribution of nitrogen released due to pulse events compared to the total annual emissions was found to be of importance for NO emissions (contribution to total: 5–22%), but not for N2O emissions. Our results indicate that the total gaseous release of nitrogen from these soils is low and clearly dominated by loss in the form of inert nitrogen. Effects of seasonally varying soil temperature and moisture were detected, but were found to be low due to the small amounts of available nitrogen in the soils (total nitrogen <0.1%).
This study presents a comprehensive and critical assessment of the meteorological conditions and atmospheric flow during the Lagrangian-type "Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia 2010" experiment (HCCT-2010). HCCT-2010 was performed in September and October 2010 at Mt. Schmücke in the Thuringian forest, Germany, applying three measurements sites (upwind, in-cloud, downwind) to study physical and chemical aerosol-cloud-interactions. A Lagrangian-type hill cap cloud experiment requires suitable cloud and particularly connected airflow conditions, i.e. representative air masses at the different measurement sites. Therefore, the present study aimed at the identification of time periods during the 6-weeks duration of the campaign, where such conditions were fulfilled and which can be used in further data examinations.
The following topics were studied in detail: (i) the general synoptic weather situations including the mesoscale flow conditions by means of a classification of advected air masses and calculation of non-dimensional flow parameters (e.g. Froude number), (ii) local meteorological conditions, including synoptic front passages, the presence of orographic or frontal cloudiness, cloud base heights and vertical stratification, and (iii) local flow conditions by means of statistical analyses using the quasi-inert trace gas ozone and selected size bins of particle number size distributions as well as SF6 tracer experiments in the campaign area. A comprehensive analyses using statistical measures such as the COD (Coefficient Of Divergence) and cross-correlation have been carried out for the first time in the context of a Lagrangian-type hill cap cloud experiment. Suitable criteria for the aimed statistical analyses were thus developed and applied in the present study to characterise the local flow connectivity in detail.
The comprehensive examination resulted in a total of 14 so-called "Full Cloud Events" (FCE), which are shown to conform to the Lagrange-type experimental philosophy of HCCT-2010. In addition, 15 so-called "Non-Cloud Events" (NCEs) could be established, which can be used as reference cases as they provide similarly suitable flow conditions but no cloud at the summit site. Orographic cloudiness was identified for approx. one third of the FCE periods, while about two thirds were associated to synoptic fronts. The statistical flow analyses indicate the existence of a strong link between the sites during the events, particularly under constant south-westerly flow conditions, high wind speeds and slightly stable stratification. The COD analyses using continuously measured concentrations of ozone and the 49 nm diameter particle bin revealed particularly for COD values below 0.1 very consistent time series, i.e. closely linked air masses between the different sites. The cross-correlation analysis revealed under connected flow conditions typical overflow times of about 15 to 30 min between the two valley sites. Additionally, the performed SF6 tracer experiments during the campaign clearly demonstrate that under appropriate meteorological conditions a Lagrangian-type approach is valid and that the connected flow validation procedure developed in this work is suitable for identifying such conditions. Finally, an overall evaluation of the identified FCEs is presented, which provides the basis for subsequent investigations of the measured chemical and physical data during HCCT-2010.
The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model uniquely combines an individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics with ecosystem biogeochemical cycling from regional to global scales. We present an updated version that includes plant and soil N dynamics, analysing the implications of accounting for C–N interactions on predictions and performance of the model. Stand structural dynamics and allometric scaling of tree growth suggested by global databases of forest stand structure and development were well reproduced by the model in comparison to an earlier multi-model study. Accounting for N cycle dynamics improved the goodness of fit for broadleaved forests. N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates reduces productivity of cold-climate and dry-climate ecosystems relative to mesic temperate and tropical ecosystems. In a model experiment emulating free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) treatment for forests globally, N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates of colder soils reduces CO2 enhancement of net primary production (NPP) for boreal forests, while some temperate and tropical forests exhibit increased NPP enhancement. Under a business-as-usual future climate and emissions scenario, ecosystem C storage globally was projected to increase by ca. 10%; additional N requirements to match this increasing ecosystem C were within the high N supply limit estimated on stoichiometric grounds in an earlier study. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for C–N interactions in studies of global terrestrial N cycling, and as a basis for understanding mechanisms on local scales and in different regional contexts.
Irrigation intensifies land use by increasing crop yield but also impacts water resources. It affects water and energy balances and consequently the microclimate in irrigated regions. Therefore, knowledge of the extent of irrigated land is important for hydrological and crop modelling, global change research, and assessments of resource use and management. Information on the historical evolution of irrigated lands is limited. The new global Historical Irrigation Dataset (HID) provides estimates of the temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5 arc-minute resolution. We collected subnational irrigation statistics from various sources and found that the global extent of AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 112 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. We developed eight gridded versions of time series of AEI by combining subnational irrigation statistics with different data sets on the historical extent of cropland and pasture. Different rules were applied to maximize consistency of the gridded products to subnational irrigation statistics or to historical cropland and pasture data sets. The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land in the western United States as shown on historical maps. Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and river discharge decreased from 1900–1950 whereas aridity decreased from 1950–2005. The dataset and its documentation are made available in an open data repository at https://mygeohub.org/publications/8 (doi:10.13019/M2MW2G).
The formation of particles from precursor vapors is an important source of atmospheric aerosol. Research at the Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) facility at CERN tries to elucidate which vapors are responsible for this new particle formation, and how in detail it proceeds. Initial measurement campaigns at the CLOUD stainless-steel aerosol chamber focused on investigating particle formation from ammonia (NH3) and sulfuric acid (H2SO4). Experiments were conducted in the presence of water, ozone and sulfur dioxide. Contaminant trace gases were suppressed at the technological limit. For this study, we mapped out the compositions of small NH3-H2SO4 clusters over a wide range of atmospherically relevant environmental conditions. We covered [NH3] in the range from <2 to 1400 pptv, [H2SO4] from 3.3 × 106 to 1.4 × 109 cm−3, and a temperature range from −25 to +20 °C. Negatively and positively charged clusters were directly measured by an atmospheric pressure interface time-of-flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer, as they initially formed from gas-phase NH3 and H2SO4, and then grew to larger clusters containing more than 50 molecules of NH3 and H2SO4, corresponding to mobility-equivalent diameters greater than 2 nm. Water molecules evaporate from these clusters during sampling and are not observed. We found that the composition of the NH3-H2SO4 clusters is primarily determined by the ratio of gas-phase concentrations [NH3] / [H2SO4], as well as by temperature. Pure binary H2O-H2SO4 clusters (observed as clusters of only H2SO4) only form at [NH3] / [H2SO4]<0.1 to 1. For larger values of [NH3] / [H2SO4], the composition of NH3-H2SO4 clusters was characterized by the number of NH3 molecules m added for each added H2SO4 molecule n (Δm / Δn), where n is in the range 4–18 (negatively charged clusters) or 1–17 (positively charged clusters). For negatively charged clusters, Δm / Δn saturated between 1 and 1.4 for [NH3] / [H2SO4]>10. Positively charged clusters grew on average by Δm / Δn = 1.05 and were only observed at sufficiently high [NH3] / [H2SO4]. The H2SO4 molecules of these clusters are partially neutralized by NH3, in close resemblance to the acid-base bindings of ammonium bisulfate. Supported by model simulations, we substantiate previous evidence for acid-base reactions being the essential mechanism behind the formation of these clusters under atmospheric conditions and up to sizes of at least 2 nm. Our results also suggest that yet unobservable electrically neutral NH3-H2SO4 clusters grow by generally the same mechanism as ionic clusters, particularly for [NH3] / [H2SO4]>10. We expect that NH3-H2SO4 clusters form and grow also mostly by Δm / Δn>1 in the atmosphere's boundary layer, as [NH3] / [H2SO4] is mostly larger than 10. We compared our results from CLOUD with APi-TOF measurements of NH3-H2SO4 anion clusters during new particle formation in the Finnish boreal forest. However, the exact role of NH3-H2SO4 clusters in boundary layer particle formation remains to be resolved.
During the SHIVA (Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere) project an extensive dataset of all halogen species relevant for the atmospheric budget of total organic bromine has been collected in the West Pacific region using the FALCON aircraft operated by the German Aerospace agency DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt) covering a vertical range from the planetary boundary layer up to the ceiling altitude of the aircraft of 13 km. In total, more than 700 measurements were performed with the newly developed fully-automated in-situ instrument GHOST-MS (Gas cHromatograph for the Observation of Tracers – coupled with a Mass Spectrometer) by the Goethe University of Frankfurt (GUF) and with the onboard whole-air sampler WASP with subsequent ground based state-of-the-art GC/MS analysis by the University of East Anglia (UEA). Both instruments yield good agreement for all major (CHBr3 and CH2Br2) and minor (CHBrCl, CHBrCl2 and CHBr2Cl) VSLS (very short-lived substances), at least at the level of their 2 σ measurement uncertainties. In contrast to the suggestion that the Western Pacific could be a major source region for VSLS (Pyle et al., 2011), we found only slightly enhanced mixing ratios of brominated halogen source gases relative to the levels reported in Montzka et al. (2011) for other tropical regions. A budget for total organic bromine, including all four halons,CH3Br and the VSLS, is derived for the upper troposphere, the input region for the TTL and thus also for the stratosphere, compiled from the SHIVA dataset. With exception of the two minor VSLS CHBrCl2 and CHBr2Cl, excellent agreement with the values reported in Montzka et al. (2011) is found, while being slightly higher than previous studies from our group based on balloon-borne measurements.
The Tarim River Basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin of China and one of the largest in whole Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim River solely depends on river water. This applies for anthropogenic activities (e.g. agriculture) as well as for the natural ecosystems so that both compete for water. The on-going increase of water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes formed the consortium SuMaRiO (www.sumario.de), which aims at gaining a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River Basin. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary to the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades due to enhanced glacier melt. Alone from 1989 to 2011, the area under agriculture more than doubled. Thereby, cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale farming to large-scale intensive farming. The major natural ecosystems along the Aksu and Tarim River are riparian ecosystems: Riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland. Within the SuMaRiO Cluster the focus was laid on the Tugai forests, with Populus euphratica as dominant tree, because the most productive and species-rich natural ecosystems can be found among those forests. On sites with groundwater distance of less than 7.5 m the annual increments correlated with river runoffs of the previous year. But, the further downstream along the Tarim River, the more the natural river dynamics ceased, which impacts on the recruitment of Populus euphratica. Household surveys revealed that there is a considerable willingness to pay for conservation of those riparian forests with the mitigation of dust and sandstorms considered as the most important ecosystem service. This interdisciplinary project will result in a decision support tool (DST), build on the participation of regional stakeholders and models based on results and field experiments. This DST finally shall assist stakeholders in balancing the water competition acknowledging the major external effects of any water allocation.
Ternary aerosol nucleation experiments were conducted in the CLOUD chamber at CERN in order to investigate the influence of ions on new particle formation. Neutral and ion-induced nucleation experiments, i.e., with and without the presence of ions, were carried out under precisely controlled conditions. The sulphuric acid concentration was measured with a Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (CIMS) during the new particle formation experiments. The added ternary trace gases were ammonia (NH3), dimethylamine (DMA, C2H7N) or oxidised products of pinanediol (PD, C10H18O2). When pinanediol was introduced into the chamber, an increase in the mass spectrometric signal used to determine the sulphuric acid concentration (m/z 97, i.e., HSO4−) was observed due to ions from the CLOUD chamber. The enhancement was only observed during ion-induced nucleation measurements by using either galactic cosmic rays (GCR) or the proton synchrotron (PS) pion beam for the ion generation, respectively. The ion effect typically involved an increase in the apparent sulphuric acid concentration by a factor of ~2 to 3 and was qualitatively verified by the ion measurements by an Atmospheric Pressure interface-Time Of Flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. By applying a high voltage (HV) clearing field inside the CLOUD chamber the ion effect on the CIMS measurement was completely eliminated since, under these conditions, small ions are swept from the chamber in about one second. In order to exclude the ion effect and to provide corrected sulphuric acid concentrations during the GCR and PS beam nucleation experiments, a parameterisation was derived that utilizes the trace gas concentrations and the UV light intensity as input parameters. Atmospheric sulphuric acid measurements with a CIMS showed an insignificant ion effect.
Ternary aerosol nucleation experiments were conducted in the CLOUD chamber at CERN in order to investigate the influence of ions on new particle formation. Neutral and ion-induced nucleation experiments, i.e. without and with the presence of ions, respectively, were carried out under precisely controlled conditions. The sulfuric acid concentration was measured with a chemical ionisation mass spectrometer (CIMS) during the new particle formation experiments. The added ternary trace gases were ammonia (NH3), dimethylamine (DMA, C2H7N) or oxidised products of pinanediol (PD, C10H18O2). When pinanediol was introduced into the chamber, an increase in the mass spectrometric signal used to determine the sulfuric acid concentration (m/z 97, i.e. HSO4−) was observed due to ions from the CLOUD chamber. The enhancement was only observed during ion-induced nucleation measurements by using either galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) or the proton synchrotron (PS) pion beam for the ion generation, respectively. The ion effect typically involved an increase in the apparent sulfuric acid concentration by a factor of ~ 2 to 3 and was qualitatively verified by the ion measurements with an atmospheric-pressure interface-time of flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. By applying a high-voltage (HV) clearing field inside the CLOUD chamber, the ion effect on the CIMS measurement was completely eliminated since, under these conditions, small ions are swept from the chamber in about 1 s. In order to exclude the ion effect and to provide corrected sulfuric acid concentrations during the GCR and PS beam nucleation experiments, a parameterisation was derived that utilises the trace gas concentrations and the UV light intensity as input parameters. Atmospheric sulfuric acid measurements with a CIMS showed an insignificant ion effect.
The Sahel has been the focus of scientific interest in environmental-human dynamics and interactions. The objective of the present study is to contribute to the recent debate on the re-greening of Sahel. The paper examines the dynamics of barren land in the Sahel of Burkina Faso through analysis of remotely-sensed and rainfall data from 1975–2011. Discussions with farmers and land management staff have helped to understand the anthropogenic efforts toward soil restoration to enable the subsistence farming agriculture. Results showed that area of barren land has been fluctuating during the study period with approximately 10-year cyclicity. Similarly, rainfall, both at national and local levels has followed the same trends. The trends of the area of barren land and rainfall variability suggest that when rainfall increases, the area of barren land decreases and barren land increases when rainfall decreases. This implies that rainfall is one of the main factors driving the change in area of barren land. In addition, humans have contributed positively and negatively to the change by restoring barren lands for agriculture using locally known techniques and by accelerating land degradation through intensive and inappropriate land use practices.
Global-scale assessments of freshwater fluxes and storages by hydrological models under historic climate conditions are subject to a variety of uncertainties. Using the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2, we investigated the sensitivity of simulated freshwater fluxes and water storage variations to five major sources of uncertainty: climate forcing, land cover input, model structure, consideration of human water use and calibration (or no calibration). In a modelling experiment, five variants of the standard version of WaterGAP 2.2 were generated that differed from the standard version only regarding the investigated source of uncertainty. Sensitivity was analyzed by comparing water fluxes and water storage variations computed by the variants to those of the standard version, considering both global averages and grid cell values for the time period 1971–2000. The basin-specific calibration approach for WaterGAP, which forces simulated mean annual river discharge to be equal to observed values at 1319 gauging stations (representing 54% of global land area except Antarctica and Greenland), has the highest effect on modelled water fluxes and leads to the best fit of modelled to observed monthly and seasonal river discharge. Alternative state-of-the-art climate forcings rank second regarding the impact on grid cell specific fluxes and water storage variations, and their impact is ubiquitous and stronger than that of alternative land cover inputs. The diverse model refinements during the last decade lead to an improved fit to observed discharge, and affect globally averaged fluxes and storage values (the latter mainly due to modelling of groundwater depletion) but only affect a relatively small number of grid cells. Considering human water use is important for the global water storage trend (in particular in the groundwater compartment) but impacts on water fluxes are rather local and only important where water use is high. The best fit to observed time series of monthly river discharge (Nash–Sutcliffe criterion) or discharge seasonality is obtained with the standard WaterGAP 2.2 model version which is calibrated and driven by a sequence of two time series of daily observation-based climate forcings, WFD/WFDEI. Discharge computed by a calibrated model version using monthly CRU 3.2 and GPCC v6 climate input reduced the fit to observed discharge for most stations. Taking into account the investigated uncertainties of climate and land cover data, we estimate that the global 1971–2000 discharge into oceans and inland sinks is between 40 000 and 42 000 km3 yr−1. The range is mainly due differences in precipitation data that affect discharge in uncalibrated river basins. Actual evapotranspiration, with approximately 70 000 km3 yr−1, is rather unaffected by climate and land cover in global sum but differs spatially. Human water use is calculated to reduce river discharge by approximately 1000 km3 yr−1. Thus, global renewable water resources are estimated to range between 41 000 and 43 000 km3 yr−1. The climate data sets WFD (available until 2001) and WFDEI (starting in 1979) were found to be inconsistent with respect to short wave radiation data, resulting in strongly different potential evapotranspiration. Global assessments of freshwater fluxes and storages would therefore benefit from the development of a global data set of consistent daily climate forcing from 1900 to current.
The prediction of climate on time scales of years to decades is attracting the interest of both climate researchers and stakeholders. The German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) has launched a major research programme on decadal climate prediction called MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen, Decadal Climate Prediction) in order to investigate the prediction potential of global and regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper we describe a regional predictive hindcast ensemble, its validation, and the added value of regional downscaling. Global predictions are obtained from an ensemble of simulations by the MPI-ESM-LR model (baseline 0 runs), which were downscaled for Europe using the COSMO-CLM regional model. Decadal hindcasts were produced for the 5 decades starting in 1961 until 2001. Observations were taken from the E-OBS data set. To identify decadal variability and predictability, we removed the long-term mean, as well as the long-term linear trend from the data. We split the resulting anomaly time series into two parts, the first including lead times of 1–5 years, reflecting the skill which originates mainly from the initialisation, and the second including lead times from 6–10 years, which are more related to the representation of low frequency climate variability and the effects of external forcing. We investigated temperature averages and precipitation sums for the summer and winter half-year. Skill assessment was based on correlation coefficient and reliability. We found that regional downscaling preserves, but mostly does not improve the skill and the reliability of the global predictions for summer half-year temperature anomalies. In contrast, regionalisation improves global decadal predictions of half-year precipitation sums in most parts of Europe. The added value results from an increased predictive skill on grid-point basis together with an improvement of the ensemble spread, i.e. the reliability.
In this study we show how size-resolved measurements of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) can be used to characterize the supersaturation of water vapor in a cloud. The method was developed and applied during the ACRIDICON-Zugspitze campaign (17 September to 4 October 2012) at the high-Alpine research station Schneefernerhaus (German Alps, 2650 m a.s.l.). Number size distributions of total and interstitial aerosol particles were measured with a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), and size-resolved CCN efficiency spectra were recorded with a CCN counter system operated at different supersaturation levels.
During the evolution of a cloud, aerosol particles are exposed to different supersaturation levels. We outline and compare different estimates for the lower and upper bounds (Slow, Shigh) and the average value (Savg) of peak supersaturation encountered by the particles in the cloud. A major advantage of the derivation of Slow and Savg from size-resolved CCN efficiency spectra is that it does not require the specific knowledge or assumptions about aerosol hygroscopicity that are needed to derive estimates of Slow, Shigh, and Savg from aerosol size distribution data. For the investigated cloud event, we derived Slow ≈ 0.07–0.25%, Shigh ≈ 0.86–1.31% and Savg ≈ 0.42–0.68%.
The three-dimensional quantification of small scale processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is one of the challenges of current atmospheric research and requires the development of new measurement strategies. This work presents first results from the newly developed Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) obtained during the ESSenCe and TACTS/ESMVal aircraft campaigns. The focus of this work is on the so-called dynamics mode data characterized by a medium spectral and a very high spatial resolution. The retrieval strategy for the derivation of two- and three-dimensional constituent fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is presented. Uncertainties of the main retrieval targets (temperature, O3, HNO3 and CFC-12) and their spatial resolution are discussed. During ESSenCe, high resolution two-dimensional cross-sections have been obtained. Comparisons to collocated remote-sensing and in-situ data indicate a good agreement between the data sets. During TACTS/ESMVal a tomographic flight pattern to sense an intrusion of stratospheric air deep into the troposphere has been performed. This filament could be reconstructed with an unprecedented spatial resolution of better than 500 m vertically and 20 km × 20 km horizontally.
We present the application of Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (TOF MS) for the analysis of halocarbons in the atmosphere, after cryogenic sample preconcentration and gas chromatographic separation. For the described field of application, the Quadrupole Mass Spectrometer (QP MS) is the state-of-the-art detector. This work aims at comparing two commercially available instruments, a QP MS and a TOF MS with respect to mass resolution, mass accuracy, sensitivity, measurement precision and detector linearity. Both mass spectrometers are operated on the same gas chromatographic system by splitting the column effluent to both detectors. The QP MS had to be operated in optimised Single Ion Monitoring (SIM) mode to achieve a sensitivity which could compete with the TOF MS. The TOF MS provided full mass range information in any acquired mass spectrum without losing sensitivity. Whilst the QP MS showed the performance already achieved in earlier tests, the sensitivity of the TOF MS was on average higher than that of the QP MS in the "operational" SIM mode by a factor of up to 3 reaching detection limits of less than 0.2 pg. Measurement precision determined for the whole analytical system was up to 0.2% depending on substance and sampled volume. The TOF MS instrument used for this study displayed significant non-linearities of up to 10% for two third of all analysed substances.