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Fire is the primary disturbance factor in many terrestrial ecosystems. Wildfire alters vegetation structure and composition, affects carbon storage and biogeochemical cycling, and results in the release of climatically relevant trace gases including CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and aerosols. One way of assessing the impacts of global wildfire on centennial to multi-millennial timescales is to use process-based fire models linked to dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we present an update to the LPJ-DGVM and a new fire module based on SPITFIRE that includes several improvements to the way in which fire occurrence, behaviour, and the effects of fire on vegetation are simulated. The new LPJ-LMfire model includes explicit calculation of natural ignitions, the representation of multi-day burning and coalescence of fires, and the calculation of rates of spread in different vegetation types. We describe a new representation of anthropogenic biomass burning under preindustrial conditions that distinguishes the different relationships between humans and fire among hunter-gatherers, pastoralists, and farmers. We evaluate our model simulations against remote-sensing-based estimates of burned area at regional and global scale. While wildfire in much of the modern world is largely influenced by anthropogenic suppression and ignitions, in those parts of the world where natural fire is still the dominant process (e.g. in remote areas of the boreal forest and subarctic), our results demonstrate a significant improvement in simulated burned area over the original SPITFIRE. The new fire model we present here is particularly suited for the investigation of climate–human–fire relationships on multi-millennial timescales prior to the Industrial Revolution.
A range-wide synthesis and timeline for phylogeographic events in the red fox (Vulpes vulpes)
(2013)
Background: Many boreo-temperate mammals have a Pleistocene fossil record throughout Eurasia and North America, but only few have a contemporary distribution that spans this large area. Examples of Holarctic-distributed carnivores are the brown bear, grey wolf, and red fox, all three ecological generalists with large dispersal capacity and a high adaptive flexibility. While the two former have been examined extensively across their ranges, no phylogeographic study of the red fox has been conducted across its entire Holarctic range. Moreover, no study included samples from central Asia, leaving a large sampling gap in the middle of the Eurasian landmass.
Results: Here we provide the first mitochondrial DNA sequence data of red foxes from central Asia (Siberia), and new sequences from several European populations. In a range-wide synthesis of 729 red fox mitochondrial control region sequences, including 677 previously published and 52 newly obtained sequences, this manuscript describes the pattern and timing of major phylogeographic events in red foxes, using a Bayesian coalescence approach with multiple fossil tip and root calibration points. In a 335 bp alignment we found in total 175 unique haplotypes. All newly sequenced individuals belonged to the previously described Holarctic lineage. Our analyses confirmed the presence of three Nearctic- and two Japan-restricted lineages that were formed since the Mid/Late Pleistocene.
Conclusions: The phylogeographic history of red foxes is highly similar to that previously described for grey wolves and brown bears, indicating that climatic fluctuations and habitat changes since the Pleistocene had similar effects on these highly mobile generalist species. All three species originally diversified in Eurasia and later colonized North America and Japan. North American lineages persisted through the last glacial maximum south of the ice sheets, meeting more recent colonizers from Beringia during postglacial expansion into the northern Nearctic. Both brown bears and red foxes colonized Japan’s northern island Hokkaido at least three times, all lineages being most closely related to different mainland lineages. Red foxes, grey wolves, and brown bears thus represent an interesting case where species that occupy similar ecological niches also exhibit similar phylogeographic histories.
Molecular phylogenetic studies of Moraea Mill. and the inclusion of Barnardiella Goldblatt, Galaxia Thunb., Gynandriris Parl., Hexaglottis Vent., Homeria Vent. and Roggeveldia Goldblatt in the genus have rendered the existing infrageneric classification, dating from 1976, in need of substantial revision. In particular, subg. Moraea and subg. Vieusseuxia have been shown to be paraphyletic. We propose a new infrageneric classification, based, as far as current data permit, on phylogenetic principles. Monophyletic subgenera and sections are circumscribed based on molecular phylogenies alone or in combination with morphological considerations. We recognize 11 subgenera, 15 sections and three series, arranged as follows in phylogenetic sequence: Plumarieae; Visciramosae (with sect. Multifoliae and sect. Visciramosae); Moraea (with sect. Moraea and sect. Polyphyllae); Galaxia (with ser. Unguiculatae, ser. Eurystigma and ser. Galaxia); Monocephalae; Acaules; Polyanthes (with sect. Serpentinae, sect. Deserticola, sect. Hexaglottis, sect. Gynandriris, sect. Polyanthes and sect. Pseudospicatae); Grandifl orae; Vieusseuxia (with sect. Integres, sect. Vieusseuxia and sect. Villosae); and Homeria (with sect. Stipanthera, sect. Flexuosae, sect. Homeria and sect. Conantherae). Most are moderately to well circumscribed at the morphological level either by floral or vegetative characters, except subg. Moraea, which includes a small number of unspecialized species apparently not linked by any apomorphic features. With over 27 new species described in the past 25 years and another 60 transferred to the genus, Moraea now includes 214 species. We provide a full taxonomic synopsis of the genus.
Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species.
Despite numerous large-scale phylogenomic studies, certain parts of the mammalian tree are extraordinarily difficult to resolve. We used the coding regions from 19 completely sequenced genomes to study the relationships within the super-clade Euarchontoglires (Primates, Rodentia, Lagomorpha, Dermoptera and Scandentia) because the placement of Scandentia within this clade is controversial. The difficulty in resolving this issue is due to the short time spans between the early divergences of Euarchontoglires, which may cause incongruent gene trees. The conflict in the data can be depicted by network analyses and the contentious relationships are best reconstructed by coalescent-based analyses. This method is expected to be superior to analyses of concatenated data in reconstructing a species tree from numerous gene trees. The total concatenated dataset used to study the relationships in this group comprises 5,875 protein-coding genes (9,799,170 nucleotides) from all orders except Dermoptera (flying lemurs). Reconstruction of the species tree from 1,006 gene trees using coalescent models placed Scandentia as sister group to the primates, which is in agreement with maximum likelihood analyses of concatenated nucleotide sequence data. Additionally, both analytical approaches favoured the Tarsier to be sister taxon to Anthropoidea, thus belonging to the Haplorrhine clade. When divergence times are short such as in radiations over periods of a few million years, even genome scale analyses struggle to resolve phylogenetic relationships. On these short branches processes such as incomplete lineage sorting and possibly hybridization occur and make it preferable to base phylogenomic analyses on coalescent methods.
Projections of future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed. Projections of change from the baseline period (1981–2010) to the future (2070–2099) from a number of different ecosystems and hydrological models were studied. The differences between projections from the two types of model were looked at globally and regionally. Typically, across different regions the ecosystem models tended to project larger increases and smaller decreases in runoff than the hydrological models. However, the differences varied both regionally and seasonally. Sensitivity experiments were also used to investigate the contributions of varying CO2 and allowing vegetation distribution to evolve on projected changes in runoff. In two out of four models which had data available from CO2 sensitivity experiments, allowing CO2 to vary was found to increase runoff more than keeping CO2 constant, while in two models runoff decreased. This suggests more uncertainty in runoff responses to elevated CO2 than previously considered. As CO2 effects on evapotranspiration via stomatal conductance and leaf-area index are more commonly included in ecosystems models than in hydrological models, this may partially explain some of the difference between model types. Keeping the vegetation distribution static in JULES runs had much less effect on runoff projections than varying CO2, but this may be more pronounced if looked at over a longer timescale as vegetation changes may take longer to reach a new state.
Tropical forest soils are a significant source for the greenhouse gas N2O as well as for NO, a precursor of tropospheric ozone. However, current estimates are uncertain due to the limited number of field measurements. Furthermore, there is considerable spatial and temporal variability of N2O and NO emissions due to the variation of environmental conditions such as soil properties, vegetation characteristics and meteorology. In this study we used a process-based model (ForestDNDC-tropica) to estimate N2O and NO emissions from tropical highland forest (Nyungwe) soils in southwestern Rwanda. To extend the model inputs to regional scale, ForestDNDC-tropica was linked to an exceptionally large legacy soil dataset. There was agreement between N2O and NO measurements and the model predictions though the ForestDNDC-tropica resulted in considerable lower emissions for few sites. Low similarity was specifically found for acidic soil with high clay content and reduced metals, indicating that chemo-denitrification processes on acidic soils might be under-represented in the current ForestDNDC-tropica model. The results showed that soil bulk density and pH are the most influential factors driving spatial variations in soil N2O and NO emissions for tropical forest soils. The area investigated (1113 km2) was estimated to emit ca. 439 ± 50 t N2O-N yr−1 (2.8–5.5 kg N2O-N ha−1 yr−1) and 244 ± 16 t NO-N yr−1 (0.8–5.1 kg N ha−1 yr−1). Consistent with less detailed studies, we confirm that tropical highland rainforest soils are a major source of atmospheric N2O and NO.
Global climate change is one of the major driving forces for adaptive shifts in migration and breeding phenology and possibly impacts demographic changes if a species fails to adapt sufficiently. In Western Europe, pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) have insufficiently adapted their breeding phenology to the ongoing advance of food peaks within their breeding area and consequently suffered local population declines. We address the question whether this population decline led to a loss of genetic variation, using two neutral marker sets (mitochondrial control region and microsatellites), and one potentially selectively non-neutral marker (avian Clock gene). We report temporal changes in genetic diversity in extant populations and biological archives over more than a century, using samples from sites differing in the extent of climate change. Comparing genetic differentiation over this period revealed that only the recent Dutch population, which underwent population declines, showed slightly lower genetic variation than the historic Dutch population. As that loss of variation was only moderate and not observed in all markers, current gene flow across Western and Central European populations might have compensated local loss of variation over the last decades. A comparison of genetic differentiation in neutral loci versus the Clock gene locus provided evidence for stabilizing selection. Furthermore, in all genetic markers, we found a greater genetic differentiation in space than in time. This pattern suggests that local adaptation or historic processes might have a stronger effect on the population structure and genetic variation in the pied flycatcher than recent global climate changes.
An updated inventory of the Bromeliaceae for Costa Rica is presented including citations of representative specimens for each species. The family comprises 18 genera and 198 species in Costa Rica, 32 species being endemic to the country. Additional 36 species are endemic to Costa Rica and Panama. Only 4 of the 8 bromeliad subfamilies occur in Costa Rica, with a strong predominance of Tillandsioideae (7 genera/150 spp.; 75.7% of all bromeliad species in Costa Rica). 124 species (62.6%) grow exclusively epiphytic, additional 59 spp. (29.8%) are facultative epiphytes. The most diverse genus is Werauhia, with 59 species (29.8% of the Costa Rican bromeliad flora), followed by Tillandsia with 40 species (20.2%) and Guzmania with 28 spp. (8.6%).
State-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) are tested and challenged by the ability to reproduce paleoclimate key intervals. In order to account for climate changes associated with soil dynamics we have developed a soil scheme, which is asynchronously coupled to a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean GCM with dynamic vegetation. We test the scheme for conditions representative of a warmer (mid-Holocene, 6 kyr before present, BP) and colder (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 kyr BP) than pre-industrial climate. The computed change of physical soil properties (i.e. albedo, water storage capacity, and soil texture) for these different climates leads to amplified global climate anomalies. Especially regions like the transition zone of desert/savannah and taiga/tundra, exhibit an increased response as a result of the modified soil treatment. In comparison to earlier studies, the inclusion of the soil feedback pushes our model simulations towards the warmer end in the range of mid-Holocene studies and beyond current estimates of global cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum based on PMIP2 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2) studies. The main impact of the interactive soil scheme on the climate response is governed by positive feedbacks, including dynamics of vegetation, snow, sea ice, local water recycling, which might amplify forcing factors ranging from orbital to tectonic timescales.