Refine
Document Type
- Working Paper (4)
- Article (1)
- Part of Periodical (1)
Has Fulltext
- yes (6) (remove)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (6) (remove)
Keywords
- Blumenberg, Hans (1)
- Business Cycle (1)
- Comments disabled (1)
- Covid-19 (1)
- Cyclical Income Risk (1)
- Financial Markets (1)
- Financial Stability (1)
- GMM Estimation (1)
- Hobbes, Thomas (1)
- Identification (1)
Frankfurt am Main im Oktober 1981. Jacob Taubes spaziert über die Buchmesse. Am Stand des Verlages, dem er schon lange Zeit als wissenschaftlicher Berater dient, macht der Berliner Religionswissenschaftler eine Entdeckung. Sein Freund, der Philosoph Hans Blumenberg, hat bei Suhrkamp ein neues Buch veröffentlicht. Es trägt den Titel 'Die Lesbarkeit der Welt' und es handelt von dem Buch, das alle Bücher der Buchmesse, ja alle vergangenen, gegenwärtigen und zukünftigen Bücher umfasst, es handelt vom Buch der Welt als Metapher "für das Ganze der Erfahrbarkeit". Taubes wird neugierig. Er blättert, liest sich fest, kommt bis Seite 19. Dann: ein Druckfehler. Taubes, dem Blumenberg über Jahre die kalte Schulter gezeigt hat, denkt nach, schmunzelt vielleicht, macht sich Notizen. Zu Hause greift er sich eine Postkarte und schreibt nach Altenberge bei Münster, sein, Blumenbergs, neues Buch sei "[s]pannend wie ein Roman". Er philosophiere historice und critice, dies gegen den Kollegen Henrich in Heidelberg. Und, ach ja, sein Buch enthalte einen Druckfehler, auf Seite 19 steht: "Boch"; die ganze Passage bei Blumenberg lautet: "Die Frage, wie denn in diesem Buch der Natur gelesen werden könne, in welcher Sprache es geschrieben sei und wie man ihre Grammatik herauszufinden hätte, schiebt sich erst über die metaphorische Grundschicht der Bücherkonkurrenz, in der primär Buch neben Boch, sekundär Buch gegen Buch steht."
We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher- order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household data from the United States. We find countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness of persistent shocks. All shock distributions are highly leptokurtic. The existing tax and transfer system reduces dispersion and left-skewness of shocks. We then show that in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model, first, higher-order risk has sizable welfare implications, which depend crucially on risk attitudes of households; second, higher-order risk matters quantitatively for the welfare costs of cyclical idiosyncratic risk; third, higher-order risk has non-trivial implications for the degree of self-insurance against both transitory and persistent shocks.
We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to cyclical shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis. We estimate our income process by GMM for US household data. We find countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness of persistent shocks. All shock distributions are highly leptokurtic. The tax and transfer system reduces dispersion and left-skewness. We then show that in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model, first, higherorder risk has sizable welfare implications, which depend on risk attitudes; second, it matters quantitatively for the welfare costs of cyclical idiosyncratic risk; third, it has non-trivial implications for self-insurance against shocks.
We develop a novel empirical approach to identify the effectiveness of policies against a pandemic. The essence of our approach is the insight that epidemic dynamics are best tracked over stages, rather than over time. We use a normalization procedure that makes the pre-policy paths of the epidemic identical across regions. The procedure uncovers regional variation in the stage of the epidemic at the time of policy implementation. This variation delivers clean identification of the policy effect based on the epidemic path of a leading region that serves as a counterfactual for other regions. We apply our method to evaluate the effectiveness of the nationwide stay-home policy enacted in Spain against the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that the policy saved 15.9% of lives relative to the number of deaths that would have occurred had it not been for the policy intervention. Its effectiveness evolves with the epidemic and is larger when implemented at earlier stages.
The coronavirus has led to a human tragedy, but it need not end up in an economic catastrophe.
In Southern Europe there are signs of a silver lining: the growth rate of the total number of deaths attributed to the coronavirus has been decreasing for weeks in Italy and Spain.
While the effect of the connement measures aim at limiting the spread of the virus is at best uncertain, the economic and social costs of a prolonged lockdown are much less ambiguous and potentially huge. Importantly, these costs can be very unequally distributed.
We argue that it is therefore time to start thinking about how to gradually unlock these countries, and we make some suggestions along this line starting with large-scale testing and continuous re-testing as the most useful pre-condition.