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A number of recent studies regress a "narratively" identified measure of a macroeconomic shock directly on an outcome variable. In this note, we argue that this approach can be viewed as the reduced-form regression of an instrumental variable approach in which the narrative time series is used as an instrument for an endogenous series of interest. This motivates evaluating the validity of narrative measures through the lens of a randomized experiment. We apply our framework to four recently constructed narrative measures of tax shocks by Romer and Romer (2010), Cloyne (2013), and Mertens and Ravn (2012). All of them turn out to be weak instruments for observable measures of taxes. After correcting for weak instruments, we find that using any of the considered narrative tax measures as an instrument for cyclically adjusted tax revenues yields tax multiplier estimates that are indistinguishable from zero. We conclude that the literature currently understates the uncertainty associated with quantifying the tax multiplier.
The Time Projection Chamber (TPC), a large gaseous detector, is the main particle identification device of the ALICE experiment at the CERN LHC. The desired performance of the TPC defines the requirements for the gas mixture used in the detector. The active volume was filled with either Ne-CO2 (90-10) or Ne-CO2-N2 (90-10-5) during the first LHC running period. For LHC Run 2 the gas mixture is changed to Ar-CO2. Calculations of relevant gas properties are performed for Ar-based gas mixtures and compared to Ne-based gas mixtures to identify the most suitable Ar mixture. The drift velocity of ions in Ar is lower than in Ne. The closing time of the gating grid has to be adjusted accordingly to avoid drift field distortions due to back-drifting ions. The drift times of ions in the TPC readout chambers are calculated for the respective gas mixtures to determine the time to collect all ions from the amplification region. For LHC Run 3 the TPC readout chambers will be upgraded. The Multiwire Proportional Chambers (MWPCs) will be replaced by readout chambers based on Gas Electron Multipliers (GEMs) which are operated in continuous mode. As a consequence an ion backflow of the order of 1% causes significant space-charge distortions in the TPC drift volume. Similar distortions are expected in data taken specifically for the study of space-charge effects at the end of Run 1. The gating grid of the MWPCs is operated in the open state allowing the ions from the amplification region to enter the drift volume. The magnitude of the distortions in this data is measured and compared to the expectations for the TPC upgrade and results from current simulations.
RUCAM (Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method) or its previous synonym CIOMS (Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences) is a well established tool in common use to quantitatively assess causality in cases of suspected drug induced liver injury (DILI) and herb induced liver injury (HILI). Historical background and the original work confirm the use of RUCAM as single term for future cases, dismissing now the term CIOMS for reasons of simplicity and clarity. RUCAM represents a structured, standardized, validated, and hepatotoxicity specific diagnostic approach that attributes scores to individual key items, providing final quantitative gradings of causality for each suspect drug/herb in a case report. Experts from Europe and the United States had previously established in consensus meetings the first criteria of RUCAM to meet the requirements of clinicians and practitioners in care for their patients with suspected DILI and HILI. RUCAM was completed by additional criteria and validated, assisting to establish the timely diagnosis with a high degree of certainty. In many countries and for more than two decades, physicians, regulatory agencies, case report authors, and pharmaceutical companies successfully applied RUCAM for suspected DILI and HILI. Their practical experience, emerging new data on DILI and HILI characteristics, and few ambiguous questions in domains such alcohol use and exclusions of non-drug causes led to the present update of RUCAM. The aim was to reduce interobserver and intraobserver variability, to provide accurately defined, objective core elements, and to simplify the handling of the items. We now present the update of the well accepted original RUCAM scale and recommend its use for clinical, regulatory, publication, and expert purposes to validly establish causality in cases of suspected DILI and HILI, facilitating a straightforward application and an internationally harmonized approach of causality assessment as a common basic tool.
A three-dimensional gridded climatology of carbon monoxide (CO) has been developed by trajectory mapping of global MOZAIC-IAGOS in situ measurements from commercial aircraft data. CO measurements made during aircraft ascent and descent, comprising nearly 41 200 profiles at 148 airports worldwide from December 2001 to December 2012 are used. Forward and backward trajectories are calculated from meteorological reanalysis data in order to map the CO measurements to other locations, and so to fill in the spatial domain. This domain-filling technique employs 15 800 000 calculated trajectories to map otherwise sparse MOZAIC-IAGOS data into a quasi-global field. The resulting trajectory-mapped CO dataset is archived monthly from 2001–2012 on a grid of 5° longitude × 5° latitude × 1 km altitude, from the surface to 14 km altitude.
The mapping product has been carefully evaluated, by comparing maps constructed using only forward trajectories and using only backward trajectories. The two methods show similar global CO distribution patterns. The magnitude of their differences is most commonly 10 % or less, and found to be less than 30 % for almost all cases. The trajectory-mapped CO dataset has also been validated by comparison profiles for individual airports with those produced by the mapping method when data from that site are excluded. While there are larger differences below 2 km, the two methods agree very well between 2 and 10 km with the magnitude of biases within 20 %.
Maps are also compared with Version 6 data from the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument. While agreement is good in the lowermost troposphere, the MOPITT CO profile shows negative biases of ∼ 20 % between 500 and 300 hPa. These upper troposphere biases are not related to the
mapping procedure, as almost identical differences are found with the original in situ MOZAIC-IAGOS data. The total CO trajectory-mapped MOZAIC-IAGOS climatology column agrees with the MOPITT CO total column within ±5 %, which is consistent with previous reports.
The maps clearly show major regional CO sources such as biomass burning in the central and southern Africa and anthropogenic emissions in eastern China. The dataset shows the seasonal CO cycle over different latitude bands and altitude ranges that are representative of the regions as well as long-term trends over latitude bands. We observe a decline in CO over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and the tropics consistent with that reported by previous studies.
Similar maps have been made using the concurrent O3 measurements by MOZAICIAGOS, as the global variation of O3–CO correlations can be a useful tool for the evaluation of ozone sources and transport in chemical transport models. We anticipate use of the trajectory-mapped MOZAIC-IAGOS CO dataset as an a priori climatology for satellite retrieval, and for air quality model validation and initialization.
Models propose an auditory-motor mapping via a left-hemispheric dorsal speech-processing stream, yet its detailed contributions to speech perception and production are unclear. Using fMRI-navigated repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS), we virtually lesioned left dorsal stream components in healthy human subjects and probed the consequences on speech-related facilitation of articulatory motor cortex (M1) excitability, as indexed by increases in motor-evoked potential (MEP) amplitude of a lip muscle, and on speech processing performance in phonological tests. Speech-related MEP facilitation was disrupted by rTMS of the posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS), the sylvian parieto-temporal region (SPT), and by double-knock-out but not individual lesioning of pars opercularis of the inferior frontal gyrus (pIFG) and the dorsal premotor cortex (dPMC), and not by rTMS of the ventral speech-processing stream or an occipital control site. RTMS of the dorsal stream but not of the ventral stream or the occipital control site caused deficits specifically in the processing of fast transients of the acoustic speech signal. Performance of syllable and pseudoword repetition correlated with speech-related MEP facilitation, and this relation was abolished with rTMS of pSTS, SPT, and pIFG. Findings provide direct evidence that auditory-motor mapping in the left dorsal stream causes reliable and specific speech-related MEP facilitation in left articulatory M1. The left dorsal stream targets the articulatory M1 through pSTS and SPT constituting essential posterior input regions and parallel via frontal pathways through pIFG and dPMC. Finally, engagement of the left dorsal stream is necessary for processing of fast transients in the auditory signal.
BACKGROUND: Secukinumab, a fully human anti-interleukin-17A monoclonal antibody, has shown superior efficacy to etanercept with similar safety in moderate to severe plaque psoriasis (FIXTURE study).
OBJECTIVE: We sought to directly compare efficacy and safety of secukinumab versus ustekinumab.
METHODS: In this 52-week, double-blind study (NCT02074982), 676 subjects were randomized 1:1 to subcutaneous injection of secukinumab 300 mg or ustekinumab per label. Primary end point was 90% or more improvement from baseline Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) score (PASI 90) at week 16.
RESULTS: Secukinumab (79.0%) was superior to ustekinumab (57.6%) as assessed by PASI 90 response at week 16 (P < .0001). The 100% improvement from baseline PASI score at week 16 was also significantly greater with secukinumab (44.3%) than ustekinumab (28.4%) (P < .0001). The 75% or more improvement from baseline PASI score at week 4 was superior for secukinumab (50.0%) versus ustekinumab (20.6%) (P < .0001). Percentage of subjects with the Dermatology Life Quality Index score 0/1 (week 16) was significantly higher with secukinumab (71.9%) than ustekinumab (57.4%) (P < .0001). The safety profile of secukinumab was comparable with ustekinumab and consistent with pivotal phase III secukinumab studies.
LIMITATIONS: The study was not placebo-controlled and of short-term duration.
CONCLUSIONS: Secukinumab is superior to ustekinumab in clearing skin of subjects with moderate to severe psoriasis and improving health-related quality of life with a comparable safety profile over 16 weeks.
During CNS development and adult neurogenesis, immature neurons travel from the germinal zones towards their final destination using cellular substrates for their migration. Classically, radial glia and neuronal axons have been shown to act as physical scaffolds to support neuroblast locomotion in processes known as gliophilic and neurophilic migration, respectively (Hatten, 1999; Marin and Rubenstein, 2003; Rakic, 2003). In adulthood, long distance neuronal migration occurs in a glial-independent manner since radial glia cells differentiate into astrocytes after birth. A series of studies highlight a novel mode of neuronal migration that uses blood vessels as scaffolds, the so-called vasophilic migration. This migration mode allows neuroblast navigation in physiological and also pathological conditions, such as neuronal precursor migration after ischemic stroke or cerebral invasion of glioma tumor cells. Here we review the current knowledge about how vessels pave the path for migrating neurons and how trophic factors derived by glio-vascular structures guide neuronal migration both during physiological as well as pathological processes
An accurate quantification of low viremic HCV RNA plasma samples has gained importance since the approval of direct acting antivirals and since only one single measurement predicts the necessity of a prolonged or shortened therapy. As reported previously, HCV quantification assays such as Abbott RealTime HCV and Roche COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan HCV version 2 (CTM v2) may vary in sensitivity and precision particularly in low-level viremia. Importantly, substantial variations were previously demonstrated between some of these assays compared to the Roche High Pure System/COBAS TaqMan assay (HPS) reference assay, which was used to establish the clinical decision points in clinical studies. In this study, the reproducibility of assay performances across several laboratories was assessed by analysing quantification results generated by six independent laboratories (3× RealTime, 3× CTM v2) in comparison with one HPS reference laboratory. The 4th WHO Standard was diluted to 100, 25 and 10 IU/ml, and aliquots were tested in triplicates in 5 independent runs by each assay in the different laboratories to assess assay precision and detection rates. In a second approach, 2 clinical samples (GT 1a & GT 1b) were diluted to 100 and 25 IU/ml and tested as described above. While the result range for WHO 100 IU/ml replicates across all laboratories was similar in this analysis, the CVs of each laboratory ranged from 19.3 to 25.6 % for RealTime laboratories and were lower than CVs of CTM v2 laboratories with a range of 26.1–47.3 %, respectively, and also in comparison with the CV of the HPS reference laboratory (34.9 %). At WHO standard dilution of 25 IU/ml, 24 replicates were quantified by RealTime compared to 8 replicates with CTM v2. Results of clinical samples again revealed a higher variation of CTM v2 results as compared to RealTime values. (CVs at 100 IU/ml: RealTime: 13.1–21.0 % and CTM v2: 15.0–32.3 %; CVs at 25 IU/ml: RealTime 17.6–34.9 % and CTM v2 28.2–54.9 %). These findings confirm the superior precision of RealTime versus CTM v2 at low-level viremia even across different laboratories including the new clinical decision point at 25 IU/ml. A highly precise monitoring of HCV viral load during therapy will remain crucial for patient management with regard to futility rules, therapy efficacy and SVR.
No. And not only for the reason you think. In a world with multiple inefficiencies the single policy tool the central bank has control over will not undo all inefficiencies; this is well understood. We argue that the world is better characterized by multiple inefficiencies and multiple policy makers with various objectives. Asking the policy question only in terms of optimal monetary policy effectively turns the central bank into the residual claimant of all policy and gives the other policymakers a free hand in pursuing their own goals. This further worsens the tradeoffs faced by the central bank. The optimal monetary policy literature and the optimal simple rules often labeled flexible inflation targeting assign all of the cyclical policymaking duties to central banks. This distorts the policy discussion and narrows the policy choices to a suboptimal set. We highlight this issue and call for a broader thinking of optimal policies.