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Der Dritte Bericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses für Klimawandel (IPCC, 2001a, b) bestätigt den Einfluss des Menschen auf das globale Klima und warnt vor einem Temperaturanstieg und vor Niederschlagsveränderungen in den nächsten 100 Jahren, die gesellschaftlichen Wohlstand und Umwelt nachhaltig beeinträchtigen können. Dabei werden weitreichende Folgen des Klimawandels angenommen, vom Anstieg des Meeresspiegels und einer möglichen Degradation von Landflächen bis hin zum Verlust von Tier- und Pflanzenarten, der Verknappung von Wasserressourcen, einer Zunahme von natürlichen Katastrophen wie Überschwemmungen und Dürren, der Ausbreitung von Krankheiten sowie negativer Auswirkungen auf die Nahrungsversorgung der Bevölkerung. Klimawandel ist dabei nur ein Aspekt des weiter gefassten ‘Globalen Wandels’, der eine Vielzahl von anthropogen verursachten Veränderungen der Umwelt einschließt. So wird zum Beispiel erwartet, dass auch demographische und sozioökonomische Entwicklungen sowie vom Menschen verursachte Landnutzungsänderungen eine erhebliche Auswirkung auf den zukünftigen Zustand der globalen Umwelt haben werden. Zu den gravierendsten Folgen des Globalen Wandels gehört die Veränderung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Verteilung der lokalen und regionalen Wasserressourcen. Es müssen daher Strategien entwickelt werden, um sowohl die Bevölkerung als auch die Umwelt vor den möglichen negativen Auswirkungen von erhöhten oder erniedrigten Pegelständen in Fließgewässern zu schützen, oder sie auf eine Veränderung der verfügbaren Wassermengen vorzubereiten. Zur Entwicklung dieser Strategien wiederum werden wissenschaftliche Szenarien und Modellberechnungen benötigt, mit deren Hilfe sich zukünftige hydrologische Verhältnisse abschätzen lassen. Zahlreiche derartige Szenarienanalysen wurden bereits durchgeführt, um den Einfluss des Klima- und Globalen Wandels auf das Wasserdargebot und auf das hydrologische Abflussregime zu untersuchen. Da Flusseinzugsgebiete eine natürliche und angemessene Betrachtungseinheit für dieses Problem darstellen, konzentrieren sich die meisten dieser Studien auf mittlere bis große Einzugsgebiete oder auf bestimmte Regionen zusammenhängender Flussgebiete. In Europa gibt es dazu Beispiele aus den frühen neunziger Jahren, als die Resultate der ersten Klimamodelle verfügbar wurden (z.B. Ott et al., 1991: für die Mosel; Kwadijk und van Deursen, 1993: Rhein; Vehviläinen und Huttunen, 1994: Vuoksi; Broadhurst und Naden, 1996: Severn; Bergström, 1996: Einzugsgebiet der Ostsee). Für diese Studien wurden hydrologische Modelle des jeweiligen Einzugsgebiets entwickelt und der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf den Abfluss bestimmt. Krahe und Grabs (1996) haben ein Wasserbilanzmodell mit einer Auflösung von 0.5° x 0.5° für den gesamten mitteleuropäischen Raum entwickelt und es anhandder Abflussdaten des Rheins, der Weser, der Ems, der Elbe und des deutschen Teils der Donau validiert. Arnell (1994, 1999), bzw. Arnell et al. (2000) untersuchten die Auswirkung des Klimawandels auf europäische Wasserressourcen ebenfalls mithilfe rasterbasierter Modellansätze. Schließlich zeigten Stanners und Bourdeau (1995), EEA (1999), Parry (2000), oder auf globaler Ebene WBGU (1999) und IPCC (1992, 2001a, b), in allgemeineren und politisch orientierten Untersuchungen den gegenwärtigen Zustand sowie mögliche zukünftige Entwicklungen der Umwelt in Europa und weltweit auf, einschließlich verschiedener Aspekte der kontinentalen Wasserressourcen und der Hydrologie. Im Vergleich zu den zahlreichen einzugsgebietsorientierten Analysen und ihrem stetig steigenden wissenschaftlichen Anspruch bis hin zu äußerst detaillierten Fragestellungen sind die regionalen oder globalen Ansätze jedoch eher selten und bleiben meist relativ unspezifisch in ihren Schlussfolgerungen. Darüber hinaus wird die Auswirkung der Wassernutzung, die erheblich zur Veränderung der zukünftigen Wasserressourcen und Abflussmengen beitragen kann, in den meisten Fällen aufgrund des Fehlens entsprechender Daten nicht berücksichtigt. In Anbetracht dieser Mängel wurde 1999 am Wissenschaftlichen Zentrum für Umweltsystemforschung an der Universität Kassel das EuroWasser-Projekt initiiert, auf dessen Durchführung die vorliegenden Dissertation beruht. In einem integrierten Modellansatz wurden in EuroWasser die Folgen von Klimawandel und sozioökonomischen Veränderungen auf die natürliche Wasserverfügbarkeit und die Wassernutzung auf gesamteuropäischer Ebene untersucht (siehe Abschlussbericht, Lehner et al., 2001). Das EuroWasser-Projekt versucht dabei drei aus Sicht von Gesellschaft, Ökonomie und Umwelt kritische Fragen zu beantworten: (1) Wie hoch ist der gegenwärtige Wasserstress in verschiedenen Regionen Europas, und welche zukünftigen Veränderungen sind zu erwarten? (2) Wie wird sich der Globale Wandel auf das europäische Wasserkraftpotenzial auswirken? Und (3) In welchen "kritischen Gebieten" Europas muss, basierend auf den Ergebnissen verschiedener Szenarien des Globalen Wandels, damit gerechnet werden, dass die Hochwasser- und Dürregefahr in Zukunft zunimmt, und von welcher Größenordnung sind diese Veränderungen? ...
As a cognitively-mediated response, autonomous adaptation at farm-gate levels constitutes reactionary actions by farmers against climate impacts. These actions are shaped by interacting factors such as household characteristics, livelihood scope and resources. It is driven by the goal of adapting cultivated farmlands to climate and for sustaining crop yields. Thus, interest in balancing adaptation goals with protection of vegetation conditions is less of a priority. Lack of research interest in understanding the gap between objectives of reactionary adaptation and protection of surface conditions (vegetation canopies) is a gap in research. In many studies, farm-gate level adaptation is described as a set of zero-feedback actions in response to climate impacts. This perception conceals the stress and impact-engendering attribute of reactionary adaptation. Inspired towards addressing this conceptual gap; this study investigates impact of farmers’ reactionary adaptation on vegetation cover in Keffi, Nasarawa, Nigeria. A twenty-year time-series NDVI and rainfall datasets are linearly regressed to examine the extent of NDVI-rainfall sensitivity. A weak linear relationship between NDVI and rainfall in Keffi for the period, 1999-2018 is observed. At a regression slope of 0.001, R squared, R2=0.129 (implying that only about 13% of the variability in NDVI in Keffi are explained by rainfall amount) and a bivariate regression coefficient, r=0.359; statistical evidence shows that rainfall amount are not significant predictors of NDVI in Keffi. In investigating the possible interference of non-rainfall factors on vegetation productivity (NDVI) in Keffi; a residual trend (RESTREND) analysis was carried out. Regression of residuals from NDVI-Rainfall linear regression produced a R=0.192 with a negative and downwards slope. The downward character of the RESTREND slope is suggestive of non-rainfall factors contained in the residuals. In validating the RESTREND analysis, a comparative analysis between observed and predicted NDVI derived from a reference NDVI value of 0.46 was carried out. The NDVI value of 0.46, is empirically assumed to be average NDVI value expected at a minimum rainfall amount of 850mm/year reported in tropical Savanna ecosystems. Using this empirical relationship, NDVI values were predicted for Keffi. Even at higher rainfall amounts≈1340mm/year, amounts were unable to produce corresponding higher NDVI values; rather a more plausible correlation between reference-derived predicted NDVI values and rainfall was obtained. A further analysis with predicted NDVI values, based on 1999 NDVI value in Keffi returned higher NDVI units than observed NDVI values. This strengthens the attribution of the possible interference of rainfall-NDVI sensitivity by non-rainfall factors like human activities on vegetation productivity. Surface soil analysis to exclude potential impacts of soil nutrients and moisture deficiency on vegetation productivity, showed that soil had insignificant effect on vegetation dynamics. Further inferential analysis, using the inter-annual NDVI and the reclassified bi-decadal NDVI maps showed that spatial vegetation distribution in Keffi were driven by farmers inter-annual rotational cultivation footprints than rainfall variability. With a three-class categorization, “gain, loss and significant loss”, the spatial distribution of vegetation in Keffi between (1999-2008) and (2009-2018) was assessed. Temporal condition (stressed and healthy) across the three classes supports the attribution of farmers’ reactionary adaptation and cultivation practices on the dynamic spatial vegetation distribution. Between 1999 -2018, an increase in areas with significant vegetation loss (42%), so with a decrease of -25% in areas with healthy vegetation was observed. The character of vegetation cover across the two decadal time slices, reflects landuse intensity and unsustainable farming practices. Preferences for modification of cultivation practices and changes in seed by farmers exerts positive feedbacks on vegetation cover. Higher statistical measures, 38.4% (yearly cropping) and 44% (shifting cultivation with less fallow periods) were observed in the chi-square analysis. These measures were higher than 2.0% relating to shifting cultivation with more fallow periods. While 11.6% farmers noted cultural practices as reasons for preferred cultivation methods, 48.4% farmers attributed climate as reason behind cultivation modification. This was higher than 24.4% who linked issues of tenure rights to cultivation practices. With preferences for yield- breaching strategies, the non-receding cultivation and shorter fallow practices in Keffi triggers feedback on vegetation dynamics. Evidence from this study shows that the NDVI-rainfall functional sensitivity in Keffi is plausibly dampened by effects of reactionary farm-gate level adaptation practices.
Seed dispersal is a key ecosystem function for plant regeneration, as it involves the movement of seeds away from the parental plants to particular habitats where they can germinate and transition to seedlings and ultimately adult plants. Seed dispersal is shaped by a diversity of abiotic and biotic factors, particularly by associations between plants and climate and between plants and other species. Due to the ongoing loss of biodiversity and changing global conditions, such interactions are prone to change and pose a severe threat to plant regeneration. One way to address this challenge is to study associations between plant traits and abiotic and biotic factors to understand the potential impacts of global change on plant regeneration. Plant communities have long been analyzed through the lens of vegetative traits, mainly ignoring how other traits interact and respond to the environment. For instance, while associations between vegetative traits (e.g., specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen content) and climate are well studied, there are few case studies of reproductive traits in relation to trait-environment associations in the context of global change.
Thus, the overarching aim of this dissertation is to explore how trait-environment associations, with a special focus on reproductive traits, can improve our understanding of the effect that global change may have on seed dispersal, and ultimately on plant regeneration. To this end, my research focuses on studying associations between plant traits and abiotic and biotic factors along an elevational gradient in both forests and deforested areas of tropical mountains. This dissertation addresses three principal research objectives.
First, I investigate the extent to which reproductive (seed and fruit traits) and vegetative traits (leaf traits) are related to abiotic and biotic factors for communities of fleshy-fruited plants in the Ecuadorian Andes. I used multivariate analyses to test associations between four (a)biotic factors and seven reproductive traits and five vegetative traits measured on 18 and 33 fleshy fruited plant species respectively. My analyses demonstrate that climate and soil conditions are strongly associated with the distribution of both reproductive and vegetative traits in tropical tree communities. The production of “costly” vs. “cheap” seeds, fruits and leaves, i.e., the production of few rewarding fruits and acquisitive leaves versus the production of many less-rewarding fruits and conservative leaves, is primarily limited by temperature, whereas the size of plant organs is more related to variation in precipitation and soil conditions. My findings suggest that associations between reproductive and vegetative traits and the abiotic environment follow similar principles in tropical tree communities.
Second, I assess how climate and microhabitat conditions affect the prevalence of endozoochorous plant species in the seed rain of tropical montane forests in southern Ecuador. I analyzed seed rain data for an entire year from 162 traps located across an elevational gradient spanning of 2000 m. I documented the microhabitat conditions (leaf area index and soil moisture next to each seed trap) at small spatial scale as well as the climatic conditions (mean annual temperature and rainfall in each plot) at large spatial scale. After a one-year of sampling, I counted 331,838 seeds of 323 species/morphospecies. My analyses demonstrate that the prevalence of endozoochorous plant species in the seed rain increases with temperature across elevations and with leaf area index within elevations. These results show that the prevalence of endozoochory is shaped by the interplay of both abiotic and biotic factors at large and small spatial scales.
Third, I examine the potential of seed rain to restore deforested tropical areas along an elevational gradient in southern Ecuador. For this chapter, I collected seed rain using 324 seed traps installed in 18 1-ha plots in forests (nine forest plots) and in pastures (nine deforested plots) along an elevational gradient of 2000 m. After a sampling period of three months, I collected a total of 123,039 seeds of 255 species/morphospecies from both forests and pastures along the elevational gradient. I did not find a consistent decrease in the amount and richness of seed rain between forests and pastures, but I detected a systematic change in the type of dispersed seeds, as heavier seeds and a higher proportion of endozoochorous species were found in forests compared to pastures at all elevations. This finding suggests that deforestation acts as a strong filter selecting seed traits that are vital for plant regeneration.
Understanding the role that trait-environment associations play in how plant communities regenerate today could serve as a basis for predicting changes in regeneration processes of plant communities under changing global conditions in the near future. Here, I show how informative the measurement of reproductive traits and trait environment associations are in facilitating the conservation of forest habitats and the restoration of deforested areas in the context of global change.