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Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species.
Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is a problematic invasive species, because of its highly allergenic pollen. The species is expected to expand its range due to climate change. By means of ecological niche modelling (ENM), we predict habitat suitability for A. artemisiifolia in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. Overall, we compared the performance and results of 16 algorithms commonly applied in ENM. As occurrence records of invasive species may be dominated by sampling bias, we also used data from the native range. To assess the quality of the modelling approaches we assembled a new map of current occurrences of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. Our results show that ENM yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using the North American data. A strong sampling bias in the European Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data for A. artemisiifolia causes unrealistic results. Using the North American data reflects the realized European distribution very well. All models predict an enlargement and a northwards shift of potential range in Central and Northern Europe during the next decades. Climate warming will lead to an increase and northwards shift of A. artemisiifolia in Europe.
Ein milder Winter hat dazu geführt, dass recht früh Blütezeit und Pollenflug eingesetzt haben. Auch einige heimische Insekten haben sich stärker vermehrt. Doch wie sieht es aus mit neuen „Plagegeistern“ wie exotischen Stechmücken oder eingewanderten Pflanzen wie der Beifußambrosie? Welche Gefahren lauern, was kann man gegen ein weiteres Vordringen invasiver Arten tun? Die Experten vom LOEWE Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum BiK-F, Prof. Sven Klimpel und Dr. Oliver Tackenberg, geben Auskunft.
Germination characteristics and frost tolerance of seedlings are crucial parameters for establishment and invasion success of plants. The characterization of differences between populations in native and invasive ranges may improve our understanding of range expansion and adaptation. Here, we investigated germination characteristics of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., a successful invader in Europe, under a temperature gradient between 5 and 25 °C. Besides rate and speed of germination we determined optimal, minimal and maximal temperature for germination of ten North American and 17 European populations that were sampled along major latitudinal and longitudinal gradients. We furthermore investigated the frost tolerance of seedlings. Germination rate was highest at 15 °C and germination speed was highest at 25 °C. Germination rate, germination speed, frost tolerance of seedlings, and the temperature niche width for germination were significantly higher and broader, respectively, for European populations. This was partly due to a higher seed mass of these populations. Germination traits lacked evidence for adaptation to climatic variables at the point of origin for both provenances. Instead, in the native range, seedling frost tolerance was positively correlated with the risk of frosts which supports the assumption of local adaptation. The increased frost tolerance of European populations may allow germination earlier in the year which may subsequently lead to higher biomass allocation—due to a longer growing period—and result in higher pollen and seed production. The increase in germination rates, germination speed and seedling frost tolerance might result in a higher fitness of the European populations which may facilitate further successful invasion and enhance the existing public health problems associated with this species.
The knowledge of phenotypic variation in the European range of the highly allergenic Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (common ragweed) is not entirely complete, even though it is an invasive species of utmost concern. We hypothesized the prevalence of phenotypic differentiations between common ragweed populations in the introduced range, and we assumed that those differentiations were related to environmental conditions at the points of origin. Using a common garden experiment, we investigated biomass allocation, growth rates, and flowering phenology of 38 European common ragweed populations originating from a major geographical gradient. We observed considerable phenotypic variation in growth parameters and flowering phenology, e.g. mean aboveground biomass varied from 23.3 to 47.3 g between the populations. We were able to relate most measured traits with environmental parameters prevailing at the points of origin. For example, early growth of ruderal populations was highly correlated with temperature and precipitation at the point of origin. Late growth and flowering phenology were highly correlated with latitude, i.e. individuals from northern populations grew smaller and flowered and dispersed their pollen and seeds up to 5 weeks earlier than individuals from southern populations. We also found a longitudinal gradient in flowering phenology which has not yet been described. The existence of such a high variability in the introduced range may facilitate further range expansion. We suggest that the correlation with environmental variables rests upon genetic variation possibly due to adaptations to the respective environment. To clarify if such adaptation results from multiple events of introduction or as evolutionary response after introduction, genetic investigations are needed.