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The russian experiment
(1931)
Revised version of a paper presented at the Conference "The Distribution of Economic Well-Being in the 1980s - an International Perspective", June 21 - 23, 1993, in Fiskebäckskil, Sweden. This paper sketches changes in the distribution of well-being during the period from 1972 to 1991 against the background of West Germany's economic and demographic development, and compares the distribution of well-being in East Germany before and after reunification. We rely on equivalent income of persons as the main indicator to measure well-being, but we also look at the distribution of gross wage income of workers and employees. Estimates of the Federal Statistical Office referring to the mesolevel of average equivalent income of socio-economic groups as well as various distributional measures computed by us at the micro-level are used to gauge changes of the distribution. The computations are based on two sets of micro-data available to us, the official Income and Consumption Surveys (1973, 1978 and 1983), and the German Socio-economic Panel (1983 to 1990 for West Germany, 1990, 1991 for East Germany). At the meso-level we find substantial changes in the relative welfare positions of the ten socio-economic groups distinguished, but a nearly constant ranking of the groups during the whole period under review. At the micro-level our computations indicate slight increases in the inequality of gross earnings during both decades. The distribution of well-being as measured by equivalent income of persons seems also to have become slightly more unequal during the whole period but the changes are very small, and partly reversed during subperiods. A decomposition of overall inequality by occupational status of the heads of household using the Theil measure shows that more than 80 percent of overall inequality is due to within-group inequality with rising tendency. This result is mitigated a little when dis aggregating the heterogeneous group of not gainfully employed with regard to the main income source of the household.
In recent econometric work, most analyses of female labour supply consider married women, whereas the results for unmarried women are provided rather as a by-product (Burtless/Greenberg, 1982, Johnson/Pencavel, 1984, Leu/Kugler, 1986, Merz, 1990,). When the particular interest is focused on unmarried women, data of the seventies or rather simple econometric models are used (Keeley et al., 1978, Hausman, 1980, Coverman/Kemp, 1987) . Often very specific populations are examined, like for example lone mothers in Blundell/Duncan/Meghir (1992), Jenkins (1992), Staat/Wagenhals (1993) or Laisney et al. (1993). Analysing the economic behaviour of unmarried women, one is confronted with the problem that the term ‘unmarried’ is not clearly defined. It includes single, divorced, separated and widowed women. They live in different types of households, like one-person households or family households, where they occupy different economic positions as for example head of the household or relative of the head. The present work considers unmarried female heads of household. We assume that the dominant economic position as head of household, voluntarily or involuntarily occupied, forces these women to a similar behaviour independent from their family status. Thus they are taken together in the analysis from the different family statuses: single, divorced, separated and widowed. Being unmarried often is regarded as a temporary state, voluntarily or involuntarily, for example in the case of young women before marriage or in the case of divorced women after their separation. Nevertheless the demographic development shows the increased importance of unmarried women in the population during the last decades. In the USA the portion of female headed households raised from 21,1% in 1970 to 26,2% in 1980 and 29,0% in 1992 (Statistical Abstracts of the United States, 1993. Own calculations). In the FRG, female headed households constitute 26,4% of total households in 1970, 27,4% in 1980 and 30,1% in 1992 (Stat.Bundesamt, FS 1, Reihe 3, 1970, 1980, 1992). Therefore it seems an interesting topic to analyse the labour supply behaviour of unmarried female heads. Especially the question whether the labour supply of unmarried women resembles rather that of married women or of prime-age males is of particular interest. Another purpose of this analysis is to apply modern econometric panel data models with special emphasis on the problem of unbalanced panel data. Most panel data analyses are carried out using balanced panel data, which is no problem if the selection process could be ignored and if enough cases are available to guarantee efficient estimation. Especially the last point was crucial for the present analysis of unmarried females. In the available panel data sets the unmarried female heads constitute only a rather small population. Therefore the estimation techniques were modified to take missing observations of the individuals into account. The paper is organized as follows: In section 2 the underlying theoretical model of intertemporal labour supply under uncertainty is shortly presented. Section 3 deals with the econometric specification and estimation techniques where the use of unbalanced panel data is considered. Section 4 contains the data description with a particular look on the unbalancedness of the samples. In the last section 5 the empirical results are presented. We compare the estimated parameters for the unmarried women between the USA and the FRG and also analyse the differences between unmarried and married women. Moreover a comparison between different samples of unmarried women is provided.
Did earnings inequality in the Federal Republic of Germany increase from the 1960s to the 1980s?
(1996)
This paper is intended as a short survey of the most relevant methods for grouped transition data. The fundamentals of duration analysis are discussed in a continuous time framework, whereas the treatment of methods for discrete durations is limited to the peculiarity of these models. In addition, some recent empirical applications of the methods are discussed.
This paper provides a review of empirical evidence relating to the impact of training on employment performance. Since a central issue in estimating training effects is the sample selection problem a short theoretical discussion of different evaluation strategies is given. The empirical overview primarily focuses on non-experimental evidence for Germany. In addition selected studies for other countries and experimental investigations are discussed.
CONCLUSION The analysis of the exposure measurement problem has shown that the proper measurement of counterparty exposure for portfolios of derivatives transactions is a complex task that cannot be performed without making a lot of simplifying assumptions. Because of the complicated interaction of correlation effects and offsettings from different transactions, the single transaction framework which is currently used by most banks is definitely not capable of accurately determining the portfolio credit risk. When simulation techniques are applied to estimate exposure, the accuracy of exposure estimations can be increased significantly. However, a lot of modelling choices has to be made concerning the valuation of transactions and the stochastic model of underlying market rates. Because the system has to make projections of market rates into the far future, the choice of an appropriate stochastic model for market rate dynamics is crucial in order to prevent unreasonable scenarios. The predominant application of models based on Brownian Motion in today’s bank risk management therefore leads to questionable results in respect to derivatives exposure evaluation.
Modelling consumer behaviour in a profile design using a three equation generalised Tobit model
(1997)
We propose the application of a three equation generalised Tobit to model different aspects of consumer behaviour in a full profile study design. The model takes into account that consumer behaviour can be measured by preference scores, purchase probability and purchase volume. We aim to avoid the drawbacks of traditional conjoint analysis where the latter two aspects are disregarded. Starting from a full profile design, we develop the appropriate questionnaire layout, the econometric model, the likelihood function and tests. The model is applied in a market entry study for an innovative medicament after a reform of Germany´s public health system in 1993-1994. JEL Classification: C35,M31,L65
In the early 1990s, a consensus emerged among the leading experts in the field of small and micro business finance. It is based on three elements: The focus of projects should be on improving the entire financial sector of a given developing country; a commercial approach should be adopted, which implies covering costs and keeping costs as low as possible; and institutions should be created which are both able and willing to provide good financial services to the target group on a lasting basis. The starting point for this paper, which wholeheartedly endorses these three elements, is the proposition that putting these general principles into practice is much more difficult than some of their proponents seem to believe - and also more difficult than some of them have led donors to believe. The paper discusses the central issues of small and micro business financing in three areas: credit in general and the cost-effectiveness of lending methodologies in particular (Section II); savings in general and the role of deposit-taking in the growth of a target group-oriented financial institution in particular (Section III); and the process of creating viable target group-oriented financial institutions in developing countries (Section IV). We argue that donor institutions must be willing, and prepared, to play a role here which differs in important respects from their conventional role if they really wish to support sustainable financial sector development.