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In bioinformatics, biochemical signal pathways can be modeled by many differential equations. It is still an open problem how to fit the huge amount of parameters of the equations to the available data. Here, the approach of systematically obtaining the most appropriate model and learning its parameters is extremely interesting. One of the most often used approaches for model selection is to choose the least complex model which “fits the needs”. For noisy measurements, the model which has the smallest mean squared error of the observed data results in a model which fits too accurately to the data – it is overfitting. Such a model will perform good on the training data, but worse on unknown data. This paper propose as model selection criterion the least complex description of the observed data by the model, the minimum description length. For the small, but important example of inflammation modeling the performance of the approach is evaluated. Keywords: biochemical pathways, differential equations, septic shock, parameter estimation, overfitting, minimum description length.
Exploring biophysical properties of virus-encoded components and their requirement for virus replication is an exciting new area of interdisciplinary virological research. To date, spatial resolution has only rarely been analyzed in computational/biophysical descriptions of virus replication dynamics. However, it is widely acknowledged that intracellular spatial dependence is a crucial component of virus life cycles. The hepatitis C virus-encoded NS5A protein is an endoplasmatic reticulum (ER)-anchored viral protein and an essential component of the virus replication machinery. Therefore, we simulate NS5A dynamics on realistic reconstructed, curved ER surfaces by means of surface partial differential equations (sPDE) upon unstructured grids. We match the in silico NS5A diffusion constant such that the NS5A sPDE simulation data reproduce experimental NS5A fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) time series data. This parameter estimation yields the NS5A diffusion constant. Such parameters are needed for spatial models of HCV dynamics, which we are developing in parallel but remain qualitative at this stage. Thus, our present study likely provides the first quantitative biophysical description of the movement of a viral component. Our spatio-temporal resolved ansatz paves new ways for understanding intricate spatial-defined processes central to specfic aspects of virus life cycles.