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WaterGAP (Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis) is a tool for modeling global water use and water availability. It participates among other models in the ISIMIP initiative (The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project). As part of this initiative, the water temperature should be calculated by participating hydrological models because it plays a vital role in many chemical, physical and biological processes. Therefore, the subject of this master thesis is to implement the physically based surface water temperature computation after VAN BEEK ET AL. (2012) and WANDERS ET AL. (2019) into WaterGAP and compare the results to the statistical regression approach by PUNZET ET AL. (2012). The computation is validated with observed water temperature data obtained from the GEMStat water quality database. The results are good for arctic and temperate latitudes. Surface water temperatures for tropical rivers are overestimated, most likely due to the overestimation of precipitation temperatures, incoming radiation and groundwater temperatures. The comparison with the regression model by PUNZET ET AL. (2012) shows matching results. The regression model even matches with WaterGAP results for most of the simulations of the future under climate change conditions, where the regression model should stop working due to changing environmental parameters. Several assumptions had to be made in order to implement the water temperature calculation in Water-GAP. These include, e.g., discharge temperatures for power plant cooling water, precipitation and surface runoff temperatures. For model improvements, perhaps three different values for the different regions of the world should be used to cool down the precipitation and surface runoff. The model could also be improved by refining the ice formation calculation, especially for the conditions when the ice melts, breaks up and is transported downstream. Furthermore, the feedback to the river channel roughness could be implemented if ice has formed. The WaterGAP model upgraded with the water temperature calculation will help the ISIMIP initiative in the future.
Floodplains play an important role in the terrestrial water cycle and are very important for biodiversity. Therefore, an improved representation of the dynamics of floodplain water flows and storage in global hydrological and land surface models is required. To support model validation, we combined monthly time series of satellite-derived inundation areas (Papa et al., 2010) with data on irrigated rice areas (Portmann et al., 2010). In this way, we obtained global-scale time series of naturally inundated areas (NIA), with monthly values of inundation extent during 1993–2004 and a spatial resolution of 0.5°. For most grid cells (0.5°×0.5°), the mean annual maximum of NIA agrees well with the static open water extent of the Global Lakes and Wetlands database (GLWD) (Lehner and Döll, 2004), but in 16% of the cells NIA is larger than GLWD. In some regions, like Northwestern Europe, NIA clearly overestimates inundated areas, probably because of confounding very wet soils with inundated areas. In other areas, such as South Asia, it is likely that NIA can help to enhance GLWD. NIA data will be very useful for developing and validating a floodplain modeling algorithm for the global hydrological model WGHM. For example, we found that monthly NIAs correlate with observed river discharges.
In Belize, which is well known for the Belize Barrier Reef and its offshore atolls, coastal lagoons are frequent morphological features along the coast. They represent transitional environments between siliciclastic and carbonate settings. In order to shed light into the Holocene evolution of coastal lagoon environments, five localities along the central coast of Belize were selected as coring sites. These include four coastal lagoons and one marsh area, namely Mantatee Lagoon, Mullins River Beach, Colson Point Lagoon, Commerce Bight Lagoon and Sapodilla Lagoon. A total of 26 sediment cores with core lengths ranging from 109 cm to 500 cm, were drilled using a Lanesky-vibracorer. Overall, 73 m of Holocene sediments and Pleistocene soil were recovered. Together with 58 radiocarbon dates the sediments reveal details on the sediment architecture and depositional features of the localities.
Marine inundation of the mainland and coastal lagoon formation started around 6 kyrs cal BP.
As a response to sea-level rise during the Holocene transgression, facies retrograded towards the coast, as seen in marginal marine overlying brackish mollusk faunas. Evidence for late Holocene progradation of facies due to sea-level stagnation is largely lacking. The occurrence of landward thinning sand beds, hiatuses and marine fauna in lagoonal successions are indications of event (overwash) sedimentation. Sediments recovered are largely of Holocene age (<7980 cal BP), overlying Pleistocene sections. Analyses of sediment composition and texture, radiocarbon dating and mollusk shell identification were used to describe and correlate sedimentary facies.
XRD analyses have identified quartz as the dominant mineral, with the Maya Mountains as main source of coastal lagoon sediments. The most common sedimentary facies include peat and peaty sediment, mud, sand, and poorly sorted sediments. Pleistocene soil forms the basement of Holocene sediments. Holocene mud represents lagoon background permanent sedimentation.
Peats and peat-rich sequences were deposited in mangrove swamp environments, whereas sandy facies mainly occur in the shoreface, beach, barriers, bars, barrier spits and overwash deposits. Facies successions could be identified for each locality, but it has proven difficult to correlate the stratigraphic sequences, especially among localities. These differences among the five locations studied suggest that apart from regional influence such as sea-level rise, local environmental factors such as small-scale variation in geomorphology and resulting facies heterogeneity, connectivity of the lagoon with the sea, antecedent topography and river discharge, were responsible for coastal sedimentation and lagoon development in the Holocene of Belize.
Faunal composition and distribution patterns of mollusk assemblages from 20 shell concentrations in cores collected in coastal lagoons, a mangrove-fringed tidal inlet and the marginal marine area (shallow subtidal) show considerable variation due to environmental heterogeneity and the interplay of several environmental factors in the course of the mid-late Holocene (ca. 6000 cal BP to modern). The investigated fauna ≥2 mm comprises 2246 bivalve, gastropod and 11 scaphopod specimens. Fifty-three mollusk species, belonging to 42 families, were identified. The bivalve Anomalocardia cuneimeris and cerithid gastropods are the dominant species and account for 78% of the total fauna. Diversity indices are low in concentrations from lagoons and relatively high in the marginal marine and tidal inlet areas.
Based on cluster analysis and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), seven lagoonal assemblages and three marginal marine/tidal inlet assemblages were defined. A separation between lagoonal and marginal marine/tidal inlet assemblages seen in ordination indicates a lagoon-onshore gradient. The statistical separation among lagoonal assemblages demonstrates environmental changes during the Holocene evolution of the coastal lagoons, which is probably related to the formation of barriers and spits. The controlling factors of species distribution patterns are difficult to figure out, probably due to the heterogeneity of the barrier-lagoon systems and the interaction of paleoecological and paleoenvironmental factors. In addition to the taxonomic analysis, a taphonomic analysis of 1827 valves of A. cuneimeris from coastal lagoons was carried out. There is no relationship between depth and age of shells and their taphonomic condition. Size-frequency distributions and right-left valve ratios of A. cuneimeris suggest that valves were not transported over long distances but were deposited parautochthonously in their original habitat. Shells from tidal inlet and marginal marine environments were also predominantly deposited in their original habitats.
Since the Belize coast was repeatedly affected by hurricanes and the paleohurricane record for this region is poor, the sediment cores have been examined in order to identify storm deposits.
The paleohurricane record presented in this study spans the past 8000 years and exhibits three periods with increased evidences of hurricane strikes occurring at 6000-4900 cal yr BP, 4200-3600 cal yr BP and 2200-1500 cal yr BP. Two earlier events around 7100 and 7900 cal yr BP and more recent events around 180 cal yr BP and during modern times have been detected. Sand layers, redeposited corals and lagoon shell concentrations have been used as proxies for storm deposition. Additionally, hiatuses and reversed ages may indicate storm influence. While sand layers and corals represent overwash deposits, the lagoon shell concentrations, which mainly comprise the bivalve Anomalocardia cuneimeris and cerithid gastropods, have been deposited due to changes in lagoon salinity during and after storm landfalls. Comparison with other studies reveals similarities with one record from Belize, but hardly any matches with other published records. The potential for paleotempestology reconstructions of the barrier-lagoon complexes along the central Belize coast differs depending on geomorphology, and deposition of washovers in the lagoon basins is limited, probably due to the interplay of biological, geological and geomorphological processes.
Spatial interpolation of rain gauge data is important in forcing of hydrological simulations or evaluation of weather predictions, for example. The spatial density of available data sites is often changing with time. This paper investigates the application of statistical distance, like one minus common variance of time series, between data sites instead of geographical distance in interpolation. Here, as a typical representative of interpolation methods the inverse distance weighting interpolation is applied and the test data is daily precipitation observed in Austria. Choosing statistical distance instead of geographical distance in interpolation of an actually available coarse observation network yields more robust interpolation results at sites of a denser network with actually lacking observations. The performance enhancement is in or close to mountainous terrain. This has the potential to parsimoniously densify the currently available observation network. Additionally, the success further motivates search for conceptual rain-orography interaction models as components of spatial rain interpolation algorithms in mountainous terrain.
Spatial interpolation of rain gauge data is important in forcing of hydrological simulations or evaluation of weather predictions, for example. This paper investigates the application of statistical distance, like one minus common variance of observation time series, between data sites instead of geographical distance in interpolation. Here, as a typical representative of interpolation methods the inverse distance weighting interpolation is applied and the test data is daily precipitation observed in Austria. Choosing statistical distance instead of geographical distance in interpolation of available coarse network observations to sites of a denser network, which is not reporting for the interpolation date, yields more robust interpolation results. The most distinct performance enhancement is in or close to mountainous terrain. Therefore, application of statistical distance in the inverse distance weighting interpolation or in similar methods can parsimoniously densify the currently available observation network. Additionally, the success further motivates search for conceptual rain-orography interaction models as components of spatial rain interpolation algorithms in mountainous terrain.
Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS). The observational references in the evaluation are (a) analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b) ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty) or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km2) of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly.
So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid-spacings of 0.44°, 0.22°, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid-spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high-resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.
Nucleation of aerosol particles from trace atmospheric vapours is thought to provide up to half of global cloud condensation nuclei. Aerosols can cause a net cooling of climate by scattering sunlight and by leading to smaller but more numerous cloud droplets, which makes clouds brighter and extends their lifetimes. Atmospheric aerosols derived from human activities are thought to have compensated for a large fraction of the warming caused by greenhouse gases. However, despite its importance for climate, atmospheric nucleation is poorly understood. Recently, it has been shown that sulphuric acid and ammonia cannot explain particle formation rates observed in the lower atmosphere. It is thought that amines may enhance nucleation, but until now there has been no direct evidence for amine ternary nucleation under atmospheric conditions. Here we use the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets) chamber at CERN and find that dimethylamine above three parts per trillion by volume can enhance particle formation rates more than 1,000-fold compared with ammonia, sufficient to account for the particle formation rates observed in the atmosphere. Molecular analysis of the clusters reveals that the faster nucleation is explained by a base-stabilization mechanism involving acid–amine pairs, which strongly decrease evaporation. The ion-induced contribution is generally small, reflecting the high stability of sulphuric acid–dimethylamine clusters and indicating that galactic cosmic rays exert only a small influence on their formation, except at low overall formation rates. Our experimental measurements are well reproduced by a dynamical model based on quantum chemical calculations of binding energies of molecular clusters, without any fitted parameters. These results show that, in regions of the atmosphere near amine sources, both amines and sulphur dioxide should be considered when assessing the impact of anthropogenic activities on particle formation.
The Late Cretaceous is known to be mostly affected by warm periods interrupted temporarily by a number of cooling events. The reconstruction of the paleoclimatic conditions during a period of high concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is of great importance for the creation of future climate models. We applied the recently developed method reconstructing the SST from the TEX86 (TetraEther indeX of tetraethers consisting of 86 carbon atoms).
The sample material used for the present study was obtained from the tropical Late Cretaceous southern Tethys upwelling system (Negev/Israel), lasting from the Late Santonian to the Early Maastrichtian (~ 85 to 68 Ma). On the core samples from the Shefela basin, representing the outer belt of the upwelling system and the outcrop profile from the open mine Mishor Rotem (Efe Syncline), representing the inner belt, various bulk geochemical and biomarker studies were performed in this thesis.
Derived from TEX86 data, a significant long-term SST cooling trend from 36.0 to 29.3 °C is recognized during the Late Santonian and the Early Campanian in the southern Tethys margin. This is consistent with the opening and deepening of the Equatorial Atlantic Gateway (EAG) and the intrusion of cooler deep water from the southern Atlantic Ocean influencing the global SSTs and also the Tethys Ocean. Furthermore, the cooler near shore SST usually found in modern upwelling systems could be verified in case of the ancient upwelling system investigated in the present study. The calculated mean SST in the inner belt (27.7 °C) represented in the Efe Syncline was 1.5 °C cooler in comparison to the more seaward located outer belt (Shefela basin).
Moreover, geochemical and biomarker analyses were used to identify both the accumulation of high amounts of phosphate in the PM and good preservation of organic matter (OM) in the lower part of the OSM section. Total organic carbon (TOC) contents are highly variable over the whole profile reaching from 0.6 % in the MM, to 24.5 % in the OSM. Total iron (TFe) varies from 0.1 % in the PM to 3.3 % in the OSM and total sulfur (TS) varies between 0.1 % in the MM and 3.4 % in the OSM. Different correlations of TS, TOC and TFe were used to identify the conditions during the deposition of the different facies types. Natural sulfurization was found to play a key role in the preservation of the OM particularly in the lower part of the OSM. Samples from the OSM and the PM were deposited under dysoxic to anoxic conditions and iron limitation lasted during the deposition of the OSM and the PM, which effected the incorporation of sulfur into OM.
Phosphorus is highly accumulated in the sediments of the PM with a mean proportion of 11.5 % total phosphorus (TP), which is drastically reduced to a mean value of 0.9 % in the OSM and the MM. From the correlation of the bulk geochemical parameters TOC/TOCOR ratio and TP a major contribution of sulfate reducing bacteria to the phosphate deposition is concluded. This interrelation has previously been investigated in recent coastal upwelling systems off Peru, Chile, California and Namibia. This was further supported by the analysis of branched and monounsaturated fatty acids indicating the occurrence of sulfate reducing and sulfide oxidizing bacteria during the deposition.
According to the results from the analysis of n-alkanes and C27- to C29-steranes up to 95 % of the OM was of marine origin.
Organic sulfur compounds (OSC) were a major compound class in the aromatic hydrocarbon fraction and n-Alkyl and isoprenoid thiophenes were the most abundant, with highest amounts found for 2-methyl-5-tridecyl-thiophene (28 µg/g TOC). The relatively high abundance of ββ-C35 hopanoid thiophenes and epithiosteranes is equivalent to an incorporation of sulfur during the early stages of diagenesis.
Moreover, the geochemical parameters δ13Corg, δ15Norg, C/N and the pristane/phytane (Pr/Ph) ratio, were studied for reconstruction of seafloor and water column depositional environments. The high C/N ratio along with relatively low values of δ15Norg (4 ‰ to 6 ‰) and δ13Corg (-29 ‰ to -28 ‰) are consistent with a significant preferential loss of nitrogen-rich organic compounds during diagenesis. Oxygen-depleted conditions lasted during the deposition of the PM and the bottom of the OSM, reflected by the low Pr/Ph ratio of 0.11–0.7. In the upper part of the OSM and the MM the conditions changed from anoxic to dysoxic or oxic conditions. This environmental trend is consistent with co-occurring foraminiferal assemblages in the studied succession and implies that the benthic species in the Negev sequence were adapted to persistent minimum oxygen conditions by performing complete denitrification as recently found in many modern benthic foraminifera.
Furthermore, the anammox process could have influenced the nitrogen composition of the sediments. In this anaerobically process nitrite and ammonia are converted to molecular nitrogen.