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Climate is frequently used to predict the outcome of species introductions based on the results from species distribution models (SDMs). However, despite the widespread use of SDMs for pre- and post-border risk assessments, data that can be used to validate predictions is often not available until after an invasion has occurred. Here we explore the potential for using historical forestry trials to assess the performance of climate-based SDMs. SDMs were parameterized based on the native range distribution of 36 Australian acacias, and predictions were compared against both the results of 150 years of government forestry trials, and current invasive distribution in southern Africa using true skill statistic, sensitivity and specificity. Classification tree analysis was used to evaluate why some Australian acacias failed in trials while others were successful. Predicted suitability was significantly related to the invaded range (sensitivity = 0.87) and success in forestry trials (sensitivity = 0.80), but forestry trial failures were under-predicted (specificity = 0.35). Notably, for forestry trials, the success in trials was greater for species invasive somewhere in the world. SDM predictions also indicate a considerable invasion potential of eight species that are currently naturalized but not yet widespread. Forestry trial data clearly provides a useful additional source of data to validate and refine SDMs in the context of risk assessment. Our study identified the climatic factors required for successful invasion of acacias, and accentuates the importance of integration of status elsewhere for risk assessment.
The worldwide transport of species beyond their native range is an increasing problem, e.g. for global biodiversity. Many introduced species are able to establish in new environments and some even become invasive. However, we do not know which traits enable them to survive and reproduce in new environments. This study aims to identify the characteristics of exotic ants, and to quantitatively test previously postulated but insufficiently tested assumptions. We collected data on nine traits of 93 exotic ant species (42 of them being invasive) and 323 native ant species in North America. The dataset includes 2536 entries from over 300 different sources; data on worker head width were mostly measured ourselves. We analyzed the data with three complementary analyses: univariate and multivariate analyses of the raw data, and multivariate analyses of phylogenetically independent contrasts. These analyses revealed significant differences between the traits of native and exotic ant species. In the multivariate analyses, only one trait was consistently included in the best models, estimated with AICc values: colony size. Thus, of the nine investigated traits, the most important characteristic of exotic ants as compared to native ants appears to be their large colony size. Other traits are also important, however, indicating that native and exotic ants differ by a suite of traits.