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Das Ziel dieser Studie ist es, die Möglichkeiten und Grenzen von hochauflösenden Klimaprojektionen in orographisch beeinflussten Gebieten an den Beispielen der europäischen Alpen und des Himalajas zu prüfen. Insbesondere wird die Fragestellung untersucht, ob beobachtete regionale Muster in den höher aufgelösten Daten besser wiedergegeben werden als in den antreibenden großskaligen Daten. Dazu werden regionale Klimasimulationen des COSMO-CLM Modells und Daten von zwei statistischen Regionalisierungsmethoden mit ERA40 Reanalysen sowie Daten des globalen Atmosphäre-Ozean Modells ECHAM5/MPIOM für verschiedene Parameter des Klimasystems verglichen. Ein Vergleich mit den Reanalysen anhand täglicher Niederschlagsstatistiken ergibt, dass die COSMO-CLM Niederschlagsdaten auf der 0.5° Skala vergleichbar sind mit ERA40 Niederschlägen und mit statistisch regionalisierten ERA40 Niederschlägen. Eine zusätzliche Fehlerkorrektur der COSMO-CLM Niederschläge liefert gute Ergebnisse. Dabei sind jedoch etwa 500 Regentage notwendig, um eine robuste Fehlerabschätzung zu gewährleisten. Für das südasiatische Gebiet ist eine realistische Wiedergabe des indischen Sommermonsuns (ISM) in den Modellen von hoher Relevanz. Betrachtet man nur die Mittelwerte und zeitlichen Variabilitäten von verschiedenen Indizes des ISM, so liefert das COSMO-CLM keinen Mehrwert im Vergleich zu den antreibenden Daten. Allerdings werden die räumlichen Strukturen von Niederschlag und vertikaler Windscherung, sowie die zeitliche Korrelation der modellierten Indizes gegenüber dem ECHAM5/MPIOM Modell verbessert. Die durchgeführten COSMO-CLM Projektionen für die Jahre 1960 bis 2100 zeigen negative Trends des ISM für die SRES Szenarien A2, A1B und B1. Die negativsten Trends sind dabei im Szenario A2 zu finden, gefolgt von A1B und B1. Fast keine Trends zeigen sich im commitment Szenario. Trotz großen zeitlichen Variabilitäten sind die Abnahmen in Niederschlagsmengen, ausgehender langwelliger Strahlung und Windscherung statistisch signifikant in großen Regionen des Simulationsgebietes. Für Nordwest-Indien weisen die Projektionen teilweise einen Rückgang der Monsunniederschläge von über 70% in 100 Jahren auf. Der Rückgang der Windscherung ist hauptsächlich auf Veränderungen in der oberen Troposphäre bei 200 hPa zurück zu führen. Während in den COSMO-CLM Projektionen alle Indizes des ISM synchrone Negativtrends aufweisen, sind die Trends für den Monsunregen über Indien im globalen ECHAM5/MPIOM Model positiv. Gemäß den Definitionen der verschiedenen Indizes, sind jedoch synchrone Trends wahrscheinlicher und das COSMO-CLM liefert zu den globalen ISM Projektionen ebenfalls einen Mehrwert. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse dieser Studie, dass das COSMO-CLM wertvolle regionale Zusatzinformationen zu den globalen Modellen in den beiden untersuchten Regionen liefert. Für die Einzugsgebiete der oberen Donau und des oberen Brahmaputra liefern die COSMO-CLM Projektionen einen signifikanten Anstieg der Temperatur für alle Jahreszeiten der Jahre 1960 bis 2100. Die Werte sind generell höher im Brahmaputragebiet, mit den größten Trends in der Region des tibetanischen Plateaus. Im Niederschlag zeigen die saisonalen Anteile ebenfalls klare Trends, beispielsweise eine Zunahme des Frühjahrsniederschlags im Einzugsgebiet der oberen Donau. Die größten Trends werden wiederum in der Region des tibetanischen Plateaus projiziert mit einem Anstieg von bis zu 50% in der Länge der Trockenperioden zwischen Juni und September und einem gleichzeitigen Anstieg von etwa 10% für die maximale Niederschlagsmenge an fünf aufeinander folgenden Tagen. Für die Region Assam in Indien, zeigen die Projektionen zudem eine Zunahme von 25% in der Anzahl der aufeinander folgenden trockenen Tage während der Monsunzeit
The TTL is the transition layer between the tropical troposphere and stratosphere, and is the main region where tropospheric air enters the stratosphere. In this thesis different transport processes are studied by using in situ measurements of tracers. Long-lived tracers were measured with the High Altitude Gas Analyzer (HAGAR) on board the M55 Geophysica aircraft. The instrument was developed by the University of Frankfurt and measures the long-lived tracers CO2, N2O, CFC-12, CFC-11, H-1211, SF6, CH4 and H2 with two gas chromatographic channels and a CO2 sensor (LICOR). The measurements are supported by CO and O3 measurements of other instruments. Two campaigns were conducted to obtain measurements in the TTL: SCOUT-O3 (November/December 2005 in Darwin, Australia) and AMMA-SCOUT-O3 (August 2006 in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso). After a general introduction of the thesis in chapters one and two, the third chapter describes the findings during this last campaign. Five local flights are analyzed to study the different transport processes that occur in the tropical tropopause layer above West-Africa: deep convection up to the level of main convective outflow, vertical mixing after overshooting of air in deep convection, horizontal inmixing from the extratropical lower stratosphere, and horizontal transport across the subtropical barrier. Main findings are that the TTL over West-Africa is mostly influenced by remote convection. The subtropical barrier is not a strong barrier but more a region of transition between the extratropical and the tropical stratosphere. Chapter 4 presents the results obtained during the SCOUT-O3 campaign. From the eight local flights the last four flights (051129, 051130a, 051130b, 051205) show enhanced values of ozone, CO and CO2 between 355 and 380 K potential temperature in comparison with the first four flights (051116, 051119, 051123, 051125). Horizontal inmixing from the extra-tropical stratosphere and influence of the local convective system Hector cannot explain the enhanced values of the two flights on 30 November Therefore, other possible explanations for these enhanced CO, CO2 and ozone levels are proposed. The first explanation is vertical mixing in the vicinity of the jet stream. However, the jet cannot explain the differences between the flights on 30 November and the flights on 29 November and 5 December. Another possible explanation is influence of polluted boundary layer air masses from the Indonesian region. Especially air sampled during the flights on November 30 crossed large parts of northern Indonesia between 8 and 10 days before the measurements. Convective uplift of biomass burning and other pollution plumes can transport CO and ozone precursors into the upper troposphere, where they can significantly enhance the ozone production. The last chapter deals with the vertical ascent rate in the TTL and uses measurements of both the SCOUT-O3 and AMMA-SCOUT-O3 campaign as well as data from previous aircraft campaigns (TROCCINOX and APE-THESEO). Time scales and residence times for mean vertical transport in the background TTL are estimated for different seasons and over different geographic regions using in situ observations of CO2 and long-lived tracers. The vertical transport time scales are constrained using the seasonal variation of CO2 in the tropical troposphere as a “tracer clock” for vertical ascent. Two methods are applied to calculate the residence time in the layer between 360 and 390 K potential temperature. The first method uses the slope of the CO2 index, the second method fits the CO2 index directly to the measurements assuming a constant ascent rate. The first method yields residence times for Australia,West Africa, and Brazil of the same order, 35-45 days to 380 K and 50 days to 390 K (where no value can be derived for Australia as the slope is changing approximately one month before the campaign). For APE-THESEO, the method does not yield reasonable results. The best estimates using the second method show moderate residence times between 360 and 390 K of 60±25 days SCOUT-O3 (NH autumn) and 43±8 days for AMMA/SCOUT-O3 (NH summer). These results agree well with the results calculated using the first method. For APE-THESEO and TROCCINOX the best fits yield shorter residence times of 23±7 and 40±10 days, respectively, both during winter. These results correspond well to the expectations based on the seasonal variation of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.
Abrupt climate changes of the last deglaciation detected in a Western Mediterranean forest record
(2010)
Abrupt changes in Western Mediterranean climate during the last deglaciation (20 to 6 cal ka BP) are detected in marine core MD95-2043 (Alboran Sea) through the investigation of high-resolution pollen data and pollen-based climate reconstructions by the modern analogue technique (MAT) for annual precipitation (Pann) and mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months (MTCO and MTWA). Changes in temperate Mediterranean forest development and composition and MAT reconstructions indicate major climatic shifts with parallel temperature and precipitation changes at the onsets of Heinrich stadial 1 (equivalent to the Oldest Dryas), the Bölling-Allerød (BA), and the Younger Dryas (YD). Multi-centennial-scale oscillations in forest development occurred throughout the BA, YD, and early Holocene. Shifts in vegetation composition and (Pann reconstructions indicate that forest declines occurred during dry, and generally cool, episodes centred at 14.0, 13.3, 12.9, 11.8, 10.7, 10.1, 9.2, 8.3 and 7.4 cal ka BP. The forest record also suggests multiple, low-amplitude Preboreal (PB) climate oscillations, and a marked increase in moisture availability for forest development at the end of the PB at 10.6 cal ka BP. Dry atmospheric conditions in the Western Mediterranean occurred in phase with Lateglacial events of high-latitude cooling including GI-1d (Older Dryas), GI-1b (Intra-Allerød Cold Period) and GS-1 (YD), and during Holocene events associated with high-latitude cooling, meltwater pulses and N. Atlantic ice-rafting. A possible climatic mechanism for the recurrence of dry intervals and an opposed regional precipitation pattern with respect to Western-central Europe relates to the dynamics of the westerlies and the prevalence of atmospheric blocking highs. Comparison of radiocarbon and ice-core ages for well-defined climatic transitions in the forest record suggests possible enhancement of marine reservoir ages in the Alboran Sea by 200 years (surface water age 600 years) during the Lateglacial.
This paper investigates the potential impact of secondary information on rainfall mapping applying Ordinary Kriging. Secondary information tested is a natural area indicator, which is a combination of topographic features and weather conditions. Cross validation shows that secondary information only marginally improves the final mapping, indicating that a one-day accumulation time is possibly too short.
Within the present study the occurrence and fate of the organophosphorus flame retardants and plasticizers tris(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP), tris(2-chloro-1-methylethyl) phosphate (TCPP), tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCP), tris(2-butoxyethyl) phosphate (TBEP), tri-iso-butyl phosphate (TiBP), and tri-n-butyl phosphate (TnBP) in precipitation, lake water, surface runoff and groundwater from urban and remote areas in Germany was investigated between June 2007 and October 2009. 255 samples of precipitation, 210 samples of lentic surface water and 72 samples of groundwater were analyzed for the six organophosphates (OPs) by solid phase extraction followed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The research focused on aspects concerning (1) the atmospheric washout of OPs by precipitation, (2) the temporal variation of OP concentrations in precipitation and in lentic surface waters as well as (3) the pollution of groundwater by OPs. The results of the study emphasize the importance of precipitation as an all-season entry-pathway for OPs in the aquatic environment, particularly in densely populated urban environments with high traffic volume and abundant usage of flame-protected products. No seasonal trends were observed for all analytes in precipitation at the urban sampling site. TCPP dominated in all precipitation and storm water holding tank (SWHT) water samples with maximum levels exceeding 1 µg/L. An accumulation of OPs deposited in SWHTs was observed with concentrations often exceeding those observed in wet precipitation. Median concentrations of TCPP (880 ng/L), TDCP (13 ng/L), and TBEP (77 ng/L) at the urban SWHT were more than twice as high as those measured at the urban precipitation sampling site (403 ng/L, 5 ng/L, 21 ng/L) located close to the SWHT. OP levels in more remote lakes were often below or close to the limits of quantitation (LOQ). Nevertheless, TCPP was the substance with the highest median concentration in rural volcanic lakes (7–18 ng/L) indicating an atmospheric transport of the compound. At urban lakes the median OP concentrations were in the range of 23–61 ng/L (TCEP), 85–126 ng/L (TCPP), <LOQ–53 ng/L (TBEP), 8–10 ng/L (TiBP), and 17–32 ng/L (TnBP). In laboratory experiments, TBEP, TiBP, and TnBP were photochemically degraded in spiked lake water samples upon exposure to sunlight. In the SWHT a seasonal trend with decreasing concentrations in summer/autumn was evident for TiBP and TnBP but not for the chlorinated OPs. The decreasing concentrations can be explained by in-lake photodegradation. Results have also shown that the occurrence of OPs in groundwater is depending on the anthropogenic impact during groundwater recharge/natural replenishment. Infiltration of precipitation was found to be no important entry-pathway for OPs into aquifers at rural sites. Highest OP concentrations (>0.1 µg/L) were determined in groundwater polluted by percolating leachate from contaminated sites or groundwater recharged via bank filtration of OP-loaded recipients. Concentrations of TCEP, TCPP, TiBP and TnBP in groundwater decreased rapidly (89–97%) during bank filtration with increasing distance from the recipient due to adsorption processes and/or biotransformation. Although TCEP and TCPP are stable within the aquifer, they are not suitable as conservative organic tracers in groundwater.
The Alborz Mountains are forming a ~100 km wide, E-W trending mountain chain where individual summits are up to 5000 m in elevation. The Alborz Mountains range are part of the Alpine orogen and are straddling a 2000 km wide area S of the Caspian Sea. The rocks of the Alborz Mountains consist of Neogen sediments, which are affected by folding and faulting. In the western part of the Alborz Mountains the folds and faults are trending NW-SE, whereas in the eastern part they are trending NE-SW. GPS data confirm N-S shortening including dextral strike-slip along ESE-WNW trending faults, and sinistral strike-slip along ENE-WSW trending faults. The present thesis is focusing on the active Garmsar salt nappe, the fragmented roof of which is pierced by rock salt which extruded near the front of the Alborz Mountains Range. During the past 5 m.y. the front of the Alborz chain migrated towards SSW on top of the salt of the Garmsar basin. The salt was squeezed towards SSW and took place at the Great Kavir. The extruded salt is forming the Eyvanekey plateau between the cities of Eyvanekey and Garmsar. Both the Garmsar salt nappe and the Eyvanekey plateau are dextrally displaced for ca. 9 km along the Zirab-Garmsar fault. Structural analyses of the Garmsar salt nappe indicate three different groups of joints which are trending perpendicular and parallel to the local mechanical anisotropy. The folds of the study area are congruent (type 2 and 3 after Ramsay) resulting from viscose inhomogeneous flow. InSAR-Investigations suggest the Alborz Mountains to be lifted up by ca. 1 cm/a, while horizontal shortening is active at a rate of 8 ±2 mm/a. These values are consistent with GPS data. Based on nine „Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar“ (ASAR) scenarios, produced by the ENVISAT satellite of the European space agency between 2003 and 2006, we used interferograms to map the displacement via 22 increments during 2 – 18 months. The results suggest that the topographic height of the surface of the salt is changing at a rate which is controlled by the season. The displacement ranges from subsidence at -40 to -50 mm/a to uplift of 20 mm/a. In order to investigate the time-dependent deformation with high spatial resolution, we used algorithms which are based on data of small base lines (SBAS). The resulting interferometric SAR time series analyses also suggest that the study area is largely subsiding at a rate that is controlled by the seasons. The map with the averaged LOS deformation velocities, on the other hand, suggests the subsidence to increase from the upper part of the salt nappe towards deeper topographic 5 levels of the agricultural lowlands. The major part of subsidence is probably caused by the annual rainfall which results in subrosion of salt. The spatial changes in the subsidence rate are probably controlled by the distribution of fountains, mining activity at the margin of the salt glacier, and faults and fractures inside the salt. Striking seasonal imprints are obvious along the agricultural areas which are surrounding the Garmsar salt nappe. These areas are rapidly subsiding in summer and spring when groundwater is used for irrigations. The maximum rate of subsidence (40-50 mm/a) is located E and W of the Eyvanekey plateau, where large areas are irrigated. The maximum displacement is 20 mm/a in the farmland and 5 mm/a in the center of the salt nappe. Depth estimates using Euler deconvolution method for gravimetric and magnetic data suggest the salt to extrude from a depth less than ca. 2000 m. The gravity field of the study area is characterized by strong anomalies in the SW and weak anomalies in the NE. A considerable negative anomaly in the N indicates that the northern part subsided, whereas the southern part was lifted up. The seismic data show three major horizons inside the Miocene sediments: the Lower Red Formation, the Qom Formation, and the Upper Red Formation. The western part of the study area seems to be free from salt domes. The layers of the upper part of the Qom Formation show thinning along the NE and NW trending faults. In some areas the seismic reflectors indicate steep faults close the saddle of the folds. NE-SW-, NW-SE and E-Wtrending faults prevail. Analogue experiments have been carried out to extend our knowledge about the evolution of the Garmsar salt dome. We used a scaled model (34 cm * 25 cm * 2.5 cm) that was shortened perpendicular to its long side. The wedge shape of the Alborz Mountains was simulated by a wedge consisting of Styrofoam. Rock salt was simulated using Polydimethylsiloxan (PDMS), a linear viscous material with a viscosity of 2.3*104 Pa s and a density of 0.96 g/cm3 at room temperature. Other sediments were modeled using dry quartz sand. The experimental results can be used to simulate the structural evolution of the study area: The Alborz deformation front was emplaced on top of the salt rocks in the Garmsar area while migrating towards SSW. A salt basin and a salt extrusion have also been produced in the model. Cross sections through the wedge shaped analogue model indicate N- and S-dipping reverse faults, which are in line with the wedge shape of the Alborz chain. Moreover, ENE-WSW trending sinistral and ESE-WNW trending dextral strike-slip faults led to N-S shortening during the Miocene. Structural marker horizons, 6 which have been turned into Z-folds on the western fold limbs and to S-folds on the eastern fold limbs, are comparable with the folds of the study area. Solving the problem of waste is one of the central tasks of environmental protection. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find suitable sites that are acceptable to the public. Salt and salt formations have relevant properties to be utilizing as a repository for each kind of waste. The favorable properties make rock salt highly suitable as a host rock, in particular for nonradioactive and radioactive wastes. The Qom and Garmsar basins are the nearest salt diapirs to the Tehran province, and there are suitable repositories for waste disposal. Based on surface and subsurface data, the Garmsar salt diapir has been investigated as a case example for its suitability as a host and repository for various types of waste. The data used are based on field studies, interferometry, and geophysical investigations. The results of this study suggest the deep bedded salt of the Garmsar Salt Basin to be an appropriate host for the deposition of industrial waste. Rock salt of surficial layers or domes, on the other hand, is not regarded as an appropriate candidate for waste disposal.