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Wenn Klimaforscher wissen wollen, was die Zukunft
bringt, schauen sie gern in die Vergangenheit. Während
der Kreidezeit herrschte auf der Erde ein Treibhausklima
mit atmosphärischen CO2-Gehalten, die weitaus
höher waren als heute. Welche Konsequenzen das für
die Meeresströmungen und die marinen Ökosysteme
hatte, können Geowissenschaftler heute nicht mehr direkt
messen. Bei der Spurensuche helfen ihnen die
Fossilien mikroskopisch kleiner Einzeller, deren wunderschöne
Kalkschalen als Klimagedächtnis dienen.
Diese Diplomarbeit untersucht die Güte eines globalen Datensatzes (IA), der die monatliche Ausdehnung der terrestrischen Oberflächengewässer für den Zeitraum von 1993 bis 2004 beinhaltet. IA ist aus komplementären, räumlich geringauflösenden Satellitendaten generiert. Die Wasserausdehnungen werden als prozentuale Flächenanteile von 0,5°-Gitterzellen angegeben. IA wäre durch seine monatliche Dynamik zur Kalibrierung und Validierung eines globalen Modells von temporären Überflutungsgebieten geeignet. Im Rahmen dieser Diplomarbeit werden die Wasserbedeckungen aus IA in einzelnen 0,5°-Zellen zu mehreren Zeitpunkten mithilfe von räumlich hochauflösenden Satellitenbildern des Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) validiert. Aus Gründen der Effizienz (Minimierung des Speicheraufwands und der Verarbeitungszeit) wird nur ein einziger ETM+ Kanal im mittleren Infrarot zur Bestimmung der Wasserbedeckung verwendet: Band 5. Durch überwachte Klassifikationen wird der Anteil der Wasserflächen an der Gesamtfläche der 0,5°-Zellen ermittelt. Insgesamt werden 262 Klassifikationen in vier Untersuchungsgebieten durchgeführt. Zwischen den prozentualen Wasserbedeckungen aus IA und den ETM+ (Band 5)-Validierungsdaten werden häufige und unregelmäßige Abweichungen festgestellt. Die maximalen absoluten Abweichungen betragen mehr als 60%. Aufgrund dieser Ergebnisse sind die IA-Wasserausdehnungen nur sehr begrenzt als Validierungsdaten für die Modellierung von temporären Überflutungsgebieten geeignet.
The aim of this study is a better understanding of radiation processes in regional climate models (RCMs) in order to quantify their impact and to reduce possible errors. A first important task in finding an answer to this question was to examine the accuracy of the components of the radiation budget in regional climate simulations. To this end, the simulated radiation budgets of two regional climate simulations for Europe were compared with a satellite-based reference. In the simulations with the RCM COSMO-CLM there were some serious under- and overestimations of short- and long-wave net radiation in Europe. However, taking into account the differences in the reference datasets, the results of the COSMO-CLM were quite satisfactory.
Using statistical methods, the influence of potential sources of uncertainties was estimated. Uncertainties in the cloud cover and surface albedo had a significant impact on uncertainties in short-wave net radiation, the explained variance of uncertainties in cloud cover was two to three times higher than that of uncertainties in surface albedo. Uncertainties in the cloud cover resulted in significant errors in the net long-wave radiation. However, the influence of uncertainties in soil temperature on errors in the long-wave radiation budget was low or even negligible. These results were confirmed in a comparison with simulations of the REMO and ALADIN regional climate models. It is reasonable to expect that a better parameterization of relatively simple parameters such as cloud cover and surface albedo is a means of significantly improving the simulation of radiation budget components in the COSMO-CLM.
An important question for the application of RCMs is to examine whether the results of radiation uncertainties and their impact factors are comparable if the model is applied in a region that is not the one for which it was originally created. Comparisons of the simulated radiation budgets of different RCMs for West Africa showed that problems in the simulation of short- and long-wave radiation fluxes were a widespread problem. Most of the tested models showed some considerable under- or overestimation of the short- and long-wave radiation fluxes.
Similar to Europe uncertainties in cloud cover were also in the simulations for Africa a significant factor affecting uncertainties in the simulated radiation fluxes. However, for the African simulations uncertainties in the parameterization of surface albedo were much more important than in Europe. On average, overland uncertainties in the cloud cover and surface albedo were of similar importance. Uncertainties in soil temperature simulations were of higher importance in Africa, and reached overland similar values of the mean explained variance (R2 ≈ 0.2) such as uncertainties in the cloud cover. This indicates a geographical dependence of the model error. This study confirmed the assumption that an improved parameterization of relatively simple parameters such as the surface albedo in RCMs leads to a significant improvement in the modeled radiation budget, particularly in Africa.
The influence of errors in the simulated radiation budget components on the simulation of climate processes, such as the West-African monsoon (WAM), was investigated in a next step. The evaluation of ERA-Interim and ECHAM5 driven COSMO-CLM simulations for Africa showed that the main features of the WAM were well reproduced by the model, but there were only slight improvements compared to the driving data. The index of convective activity in the model simulations was much too high and precipitation was underestimated in large parts of tropical Africa. The partly considerable differences between the ERA-Interim and ECHAM5 driven simulations demonstrated the sensitivity of the RCM to the boundary conditions and in particular to the sea surface temperature. An excessive northwards shift of the monsoon in the model was influenced by the land-sea temperature gradient and the strength of the Saharan heat low. Consequently, a part of the error was due to the driving data and the model itself produced another part.
By modifying the parameterization of the bare soil albedo the errors in the radiation budget and 2 m temperature in the Sahara region were significantly reduced. Similarly, the overesti-mation of precipitation and convection has been reduced in the Sahel. The effect of this modifi-cation on the examined WAM area was low. This confirmed that especially in desert regions, errors in the surface albedo were a driving factor for errors in the radiation budget. However, there are other important factors not yet sufficiently understood that have a strong influence on the quality of the simulation of the WAM.
The analysis of the actual state, the quantification of error sources and the highlighting of connections made it possible to find means to reduce uncertainties in the simulated radiation in RCMs and to have a better understanding of radiation processes. However, the magnitude of the errors found, the number of possible influencing factors, and the complexity of interactions, indicate that there is still a need for further research in this area.
The isotopic composition of methane in the stratosphere : high-altitude balloon sample measurements
(2011)
The isotopic composition of stratospheric methane has been determined on a large suite of air samples from stratospheric balloon flights covering subtropical to polar latitudes and a time period of 16 yr. 154 samples were analyzed for δC and 119 samples for δD, increasing the previously published dataset for balloon borne samples by an order of magnitude, and more than doubling the total available stratospheric data (including aircraft samples) published to date. The samples also cover a large range in mixing ratio from tropospheric values near 1800 ppb down to only 250 ppb, and the strong isotope fractionation processes accordingly increase the isotopic composition up to δ13C=−14‰ and δD= +190‰, the largest enrichments observed for atmospheric CH4 so far. When analyzing and comparing kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) derived from single balloon profiles, it is necessary to take into account the residence time in the stratosphere in combination with the observed mixing ratio and isotope trends in the troposphere, and the range of isotope values covered by the individual profile. Temporal isotope trends can also be determined in the stratosphere and compare reasonably well with the tropospheric trends. The effects of chemical and dynamical processes on the isotopic composition of CH4 in the stratosphere are discussed in detail. Different ways to interpret the data in terms of the relative fractions of the three important sink mechanisms (reaction with OH, O(1D)) and Cl, respectively), and their limitations, are investigated. The classical approach of using global mean KIE values can be strongly biased when profiles with different minimum mixing ratios are compared. Approaches for more local KIE investigations are suggested. It is shown that any approach for a formal sink partitioning from the measured data severely underestimates the fraction removed by OH, which is likely due to the insensitivity of the measurements to the kinetic fractionation in the lower stratosphere. Attempts can be made to correct for the lower stratospheric sink bias, but full quantitative interpretation of the CH4 isotope data in terms of the three sink reactions requires a global model.
The isotopic composition of methane in the stratosphere : high-altitude balloon sample measurements
(2011)
The isotopic composition of stratospheric methane has been determined on a large suite of air samples from stratospheric balloon flights covering subtropical to polar latitudes and a time period of 16 yr. 154 samples were analyzed for δ13C and 119 samples for δD, increasing the previously published dataset for balloon borne samples by an order of magnitude, and more than doubling the total available stratospheric data (including aircraft samples) published to date. The samples also cover a large range in mixing ratio from tropospheric values near 1800 ppb down to only 250 ppb, and the strong isotope fractionation processes accordingly increase the isotopic composition up to δ13C = −14‰ and δD = +190‰, the largest enrichments observed for atmospheric CH4 so far. When analyzing and comparing kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) derived from single balloon profiles, it is necessary to take into account the residence time in the stratosphere in combination with the observed mixing ratio and isotope trends in the troposphere, and the range of isotope values covered by the individual profile. The isotopic composition of CH4 in the stratosphere is affected by both chemical and dynamical processes. This severely hampers interpretation of the data in terms of the relative fractions of the three important sink mechanisms (reaction with OH, O(1D) and Cl). It is shown that a formal sink partitioning using the measured data severely underestimates the fraction removed by OH, which is likely due to the insensitivity of the measurements to the kinetic fractionation in the lower stratosphere. Full quantitative interpretation of the CH4 isotope data in terms of the three sink reactions requires a global model.
Owing to long-term similarities with regard to orbital climate forcing (i.e., low eccentricity and a dampened influence of precession), Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 represents one of the closest astronomical analogues for present and future climate. Hence, insights into the climate variability of MIS 11 can contribute to a better understanding of the climatic evolution of the present (Holocene) interglacial as it would occur without human interference. In order to elucidate the natural climate variability during MIS 11, this study examines predominantly annually laminated lake sediments of Holsteinian age from Dethlingen, northern Germany. The Holsteinian interglacial is widely accepted to be the terrestrial equivalent of MIS 11c in central Europe and can be biostratigraphically correlated with the Hoxnian, Mazovian and Praclaux interglacials on the British Isles, in Poland and in France, respectively. These correlations yield the potential to cross-check the results from individual sites on a regional scale. This study is based on a multi-proxy approach including palynological, micropaleontological, sedimentological, geochemical and time series analyses within a wellconstrained chronological framework that has been established through varve counting and regional bio-stratigraphic correlations with other annually laminated archives of Holsteinian age. In particular, the here-presented study aims at (i) fingerprinting the long-term (centennial- to millennial-scale) and short-term (sub-decadal- to decadal-scale) climate variability during the Holsteinian interglacial, (ii) deciphering the nature, tempo and trigger mechanisms of abrupt climate change under interglacial boundary conditions, and (iii) assessing its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. With regard to long-term climate variability, the vegetation succession at Dethlingen as inferred from pollen data provides insights into the mesocratic to telocratic forest phases of a glacial-interglacial cycle spanning ~11500 (± 1000) years of the 15-16-ka-long Holsteinian interglacial. The development of temperate mixed forests suggests a general prevalence of mild climatic conditions during the Holsteinian. The older parts of the interglacial are characterised by the strong presence of boreal tree taxa (e.g., Picea), whereas the younger parts of the interglacial are marked by the expansion of sub-Atlantic to Atlantic forest elements (e.g., Abies, Buxus, Ilex, Quercus) and the decline of boreal tree taxa. This vegetation succession suggests a general warming trend and decreasing seasonality over the course of the Holsteinian interglacial. Based on the maximum pollen abundances of indicator tree taxa (e.g., Buxus and Quercus), peak warmth was reached during the later stages of the interglacial; it was accompanied by high humidity. The forest succession of the Holsteinian interglacial was punctuated by abrupt and gradual changes in the abundances of temperate plant taxa. These vegetation changes indicate considerable intra-interglacial climate variability. In particular, two marked declines of temperate taxa leading to the transient development of boreal and sub-boreal forests were triggered by centennial-scale climate oscillations, here termed Older and Younger Holsteinian Oscillations (OHO and YHO). These oscillations occurred ~6000 and ~9000 years after the onset of the interglacial pioneer forestation in central Europe, respectively. To assess the impact of abrupt climate change on terrestrial ecosystems during the Holsteinian and to investigate the underlying driving mechanisms, the intervals spanning the OHO and the YHO at Dethlingen were subjected to decadal-scale palynological and sedimentological analyses. Based on these data, the OHO comprises a 90-year-long decline of temperate taxa associated with expansion of Pinus and non-arboreal pollen, and a subsequent 130-year-long recovery of temperate taxa marked by the pioneer expansion of Betula and Alnus. Owing to its highly characteristic imprint on vegetation dynamics, the OHO can be identified in pollen records from the central European lowlands north of 50º latitude, from the British Isles to Poland. A close inspection of individual pollen records from that region reveals the prevalence of colder winters during the OHO, with a gradient of decreasing temperature and moisture availability, and increased continentality towards eastern Europe. This climate pattern points to a weakened influence of the westerlies and/or stronger influence of the Siberian High connected to the OHO. The vegetation dynamics during the YHO are characterised by a decline of temperate taxa (particularly of Carpinus) and the expansion of pioneer trees (mainly Betula). In contrast to the OHO, frost-sensitive taxa (e.g., Ilex, Buxus and Hedera) continued to thrive. This suggests that mean winter temperatures remained relatively high (>0 ºC) during the YHO pointing to a decrease of summer warmth related to the climatic deterioration. The YHO, which has a duration on the order of 300 years, is centered within a long-term (~1500-year) decline and subsequent, millennial-scale recovery of temperate taxa. Because the impact of the OHO and the YHO on the vegetation at Dethlingen was markedly different, both short-term climate oscillations may have been caused by different trigger mechanisms. For the OHO, the inferred regional-scale winter cooling over central Europe lasting for several decades points to a decrease in ocean heat transport, most likely related to a transient slowdown in North Atlantic Deep Water formation. This view is supported by the strong resemblance of the OHO to the 8.2 ka event of the Holocene with regard to the duration, imprint on terrestrial ecosystems, spatial pattern of the climatic impact, timing within the respective interglacial, and prevailing interglacial boundary conditions. In contrast, the presence of frost-sensitive taxa during the YHO appears to exclude a reduction in oceanic heat transport as postulated for the OHO. Instead, the long-lasting, gradual changes in the abundances of temperate taxa suggest a connection to orbital forcing, with the triggering mechanism causing the centennial-scale vegetation setback itself remaining unclear. The characteristics of short-term climate variability were investigated based on microfacies and time series analyses of a ~3200-year-long, annually laminated window of the Dethlingen record. The annual laminations at Dethlingen comprise biogenic varves consisting of two discrete sub-layers. The light layers, which are controlled by the intensity of diatoms blooms during spring/summer, reflect changes in the productivity of the Dethlingen palaeolake. In contrast, the dark layers, which consist predominantly of amorphous organic matter and fragmented diatom frustules, represent sediment deposition during autumn/winter. Spectral analyses of the thicknesses of the light and dark layers have revealed several peaks exceeding the 95% and 99% confidence levels that are near-identical to those known from modern instrumental data and Holocene records. Decadal-scale signals at periods of 90, 25, and 10.5 years are likely associated with the 88-, 22- and 11-year solar cycles; hence, solar activity appears to have been a forcing agent in productivity changes of the Dethlingen palaeolake. Sub-decadal-scale signals at periods between 3 and 5 years and ~6 years may reflect an influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on varve formation during winter.
Although climate is known to be one of the key factors determining animal species distributions amongst others, projections of global change impacts on their distributions often rely on bioclimatic envelope models. Vegetation structure and landscape configuration are also key determinants of distributions, but they are rarely considered in such assessments. We explore the consequences of using simulated vegetation structure and composition as well as its associated landscape configuration in models projecting global change effects on Iberian bird species distributions. Both present-day and future distributions were modelled for 168 bird species using two ensemble forecasting methods: Random Forests (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). For each species, several models were created, differing in the predictor variables used (climate, vegetation, and landscape configuration). Discrimination ability of each model in the present-day was then tested with four commonly used evaluation methods (AUC, TSS, specificity and sensitivity). The different sets of predictor variables yielded similar spatial patterns for well-modelled species, but the future projections diverged for poorly-modelled species. Models using all predictor variables were not significantly better than models fitted with climate variables alone for ca. 50% of the cases. Moreover, models fitted with climate data were always better than models fitted with landscape configuration variables, and vegetation variables were found to correlate with bird species distributions in 26–40% of the cases with BRT, and in 1–18% of the cases with RF. We conclude that improvements from including vegetation and its landscape configuration variables in comparison with climate only variables might not always be as great as expected for future projections of Iberian bird species.
Transition metal nitrides, carbides and borides have a high potential for industrial applications as they not only have a high melting point but are generally harder and less compressible than the pure metals. Here we summarize recent advances in the synthesis of binary transition metal nitrides, carbides and borides focusing on the reaction of the elements at extreme conditions generated within the laser-heated diamond anvil cell. The current knowledge of their structures and high-pressure properties like high-(p; T) stability, compressibility and hardness is described as obtained from experiments.
To unravel the short-term climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, which represents a close analogue to the Holocene with regard to orbital boundary conditions, we performed microfacies and time series analyses on a ~3200-yr-long record of annually laminated Holsteinian lake sediments from Dethlingen, northern Germany. These biogenic varves comprise two sub-layers: A light layer, which is controlled by spring/summer diatom blooms, and a dark layer consisting mainly of amorphous organic matter and fragmented diatom frustules deposited during autumn/winter. Time series analyses were performed on the thickness of the light and dark layers. Signals exceeding the 95 % and 99 % confidence levels occur at periods that are near-identical to those known from modern instrumental data and Holocene palaeoclimatic records. Spectral peaks at periods of 90, 25, and 10.5 yr are likely associated with the 88-, 22- and 11-yr solar cycles, respectively. This variability is mainly expressed in the light layer spectra, suggesting solar influence on the palaeoproductivity of the lake. Significant signals at periods between 3 and 5 yr and at ~6 yr are strongest expressed in the dark layer spectra and may reflect an influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during autumn/winter. Our results suggest that solar forcing and ENSO/NAO-like variability influenced central European climate during MIS 11 similar to the present interglacial, thus demonstrating the comparability of the two interglacial periods at sub-decadal to decadal timescales.
To unravel the short-term climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, which represents a close analogue to the Holocene with regard to orbital boundary conditions, we performed microfacies and time series analyses on a ~3200-yr-long record of annually laminated Holsteinian lake sediments from Dethlingen, northern Germany. These biogenic varves comprise two sub-layers: a light sub-layer, which is controlled by spring/summer diatom blooms, and a dark sub-layer consisting mainly of amorphous organic matter and fragmented diatom frustules deposited during autumn/winter. Time series analyses were performed on the thickness of the light and dark sub-layers. Signals exceeding the 95% and 99% confidence levels occur at periods that are near-identical to those known from modern instrumental data and Holocene palaeoclimatic records. Spectral peaks at periods of 90, 25, and 10.5 yr are likely associated with the 88-, 22- and 11-yr solar cycles, respectively. This variability is mainly expressed in the light sub-layer spectra, suggesting solar influence on the palaeoproductivity of the lake. Significant signals at periods between 3 and 5 yr and at ∼6 yr are strongest expressed in the dark sub-layer spectra and may reflect an influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during autumn/winter. Our results suggest that solar forcing and ENSO/NAO-like variability influenced central European climate during MIS 11 similarly to the present interglacial, thus demonstrating the comparability of the two interglacial periods at sub-decadal to decadal timescales.