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Atmospheric new particle formation is a general phenomenon observed over coniferous forests. So far nucleation is either parameterised as a function of gaseous sulphuric acid concentration only, which is unable to explain the observed seasonality of nucleation events at different measurement sites, or as a function of sulphuric acid and organic molecules. Here we introduce different nucleation parameters based on the interaction of sulphuric acid and terpene oxidation products and elucidate the individual importance. They include basic trace gas and meteorological measurements such as ozone and water vapour concentrations, temperature (for terpene emission) and UV B radiation as a proxy for OH radical formation. We apply these new parameters to field studies conducted at conducted at Finnish and German measurement sites and compare these to nucleation observations on a daily and annual scale. General agreement was found, although the specific compounds responsible for the nucleation process remain speculative. This can be interpreted as follows: During cooler seasons the emission of biogenic terpenes and the OH availability limits the new particle formation while towards warmer seasons the ratio of ozone and water vapour concentration seems to dominate the general behaviour. Therefore, organics seem to support ambient nucleation besides sulphuric acid or an OH-related compound. Using these nucleation parameters to extrapolate the current conditions to prognosed future concentrations of ozone, water vapour and organic concentrations leads to a significant potential increase in the nucleation event number.
Abrupt climate changes of the last deglaciation detected in a western Mediterranean forest record
(2009)
Abrupt changes in Western Mediterranean climate during the last deglaciation (20 to 6 cal ka BP) are detected in marine core MD95-2043 (Alboran Sea) through the investigation of high-resolution pollen data and pollen-based climate reconstructions by the modern analogue technique (MAT) for annual precipitation (Pann) and mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months (MTCO and MTWA). Changes in temperate Mediterranean forest development and composition and MAT reconstructions indicate major climatic shifts with parallel temperature and precipitation changes at the onsets of Heinrich stadial 1 (equivalent to the Oldest Dryas), the Bölling-Allerød (BA), and the Younger Dryas (YD). Multi-centennial-scale oscillations in forest development occurred throughout the BA, YD, and early Holocene. Shifts in vegetation composition and (Pann reconstructions indicate that forest declines occurred during dry, and generally cool, episodes centred at 14.0, 13.3, 12.9, 11.8, 10.7, 10.1, 9.2, 8.3 and 7.4 cal ka BP. The forest record also suggests multiple, low-amplitude Preboreal (PB) climate oscillations, and a marked increase in moisture availability for forest development at the end of the PB at 10.6 cal ka BP. Dry atmospheric conditions in the Western Mediterranean occurred in phase with Lateglacial events of high-latitude cooling including GI-1d (Older Dryas), GI-1b (Intra-Allerød Cold Period) and GS-1 (YD), and during Holocene events associated with high-latitude cooling, meltwater pulses and N. Atlantic ice-rafting. A possible climatic mechanism for the recurrence of dry intervals and an opposed regional precipitation pattern with respect to Western-central Europe relates to the dynamics of the westerlies and the prevalence of atmospheric blocking highs. Comparison of radiocarbon and ice-core ages for well-defined climatic transitions in the forest record suggests possible enhancement of marine reservoir ages in the Alboran Sea by 200 years (surface water age 600 years) during the Lateglacial.
Processes occurring in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) are of importance for the global climate, for the stratospheric dynamics and air chemistry, and they influence the global distribution of water vapour, trace gases and aerosols. The mechanisms underlying cloud formation and variability in the UT/LS are of scientific concern as these still are not adequately described and quantified by numerical models. Part of the reasons for this is the scarcity of detailed in-situ measurements in particular from the Tropical Transition Layer (TTL) within the UT/LS. In this contribution we provide measurements of particle number densities and the amounts of non-volatile particles in the submicron size range present in the UT/LS over Southern Brazil, West Africa, and Northern Australia. The data were collected in-situ on board of the Russian high altitude research aircraft M-55 "Geophysica" using the specialised COPAS (COndensation PArticle counting System) instrument during the TROCCINOX (Araçatuba, Brazil, February 2005), the SCOUT-O3 (Darwin, Australia, December 2005), and SCOUT-AMMA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, August 2006) campaigns. The vertical profiles obtained are compared to those from previous measurements from the NASA DC-8 and NASA WB-57F over Costa Rica and other tropical locations between 1999 and 2007. The number density of the submicron particles as function of altitude was found to be remarkably constant (even back to 1987) over the tropical UT/LS altitude band such that a parameterisation suitable for models can be extracted from the measurements. At altitudes corresponding to potential temperatures above 430 K a slight increase of the number densities from 2005/2006 results from the data in comparison to the 1987 to 2007 measurements. The origins of this increase are unknown. By contrast the data from Northern hemispheric mid latitudes do not exhibit such an increase between 1999 and 2006. Vertical profiles of the non-volatile fraction of the submicron particles were also measured by a COPAS channel and are presented here. The resulting profiles of the non-volatile number density fraction show a pronounced maximum of 50% in the tropical TTL over Australia and West Africa. Below and above this fraction is much lower attaining values of 10% and smaller. In the lower stratosphere the fine particles mostly consist of sulphuric acid which is reflected in the low numbers of non-volatile residues measured by COPAS. Without detailed chemical composition measurements the reason for the increase of non-volatile particle fractions cannot yet be given. The long distance transfer flights to Brazil, Australia and West-Africa were executed during a time window of 17 months within a period of relative volcanic quiescence. Thus the data measured during these transfers represent a "snapshot picture" documenting the status of a significant part of the global UT/LS aerosol (with sizes below 1 μm) at low concentration levels 15 years after the last major (i.e., the 1991 Mount Pinatubo) eruption. The corresponding latitudinal distributions of the measured particle number densities are also presented in this paper in order to provide input on the UT/LS background aerosol for modelling purposes.
Atmospheric new particle formation is a general phenomenon observed over coniferous forests. So far nucleation is described as a function of gaseous sulfuric acid concentration only, which is unable to explain the observed seasonality of nucleation events at different measurement sites. Here we introduce a new nucleation parameter including ozone and water vapor concentrations as well as UV-B radiation as a proxy for OH radical formation. Applying this new parameter to field studies conducted at Finnish and German measurement sites it is found capable to predict the occurrence of nucleation events and their seasonal and annual variation indicating a significant role of organics. Extrapolation to possible future conditions of ozone, water vapor and organic concentrations leads to a significant potential increase in nucleation event number.
Atmospheric observation-based global SF6 emissions - comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates
(2009)
Emissions of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), one of the strongest greenhouse gases on a per molecule basis, are targeted to be collectively reduced under the Kyoto Protocol. Because of its long atmospheric lifetime (≈3000 years), the accumulation of SF6 in the atmosphere is a direct measure of its global emissions. Examination of our extended data set of globally distributed high-precision SF6 observations shows an increase in SF6 abundance from near zero in the 1970s to a global mean of 6.7 ppt by the end of 2008. In-depth evaluation of our long-term data records shows that the global source of SF6 decreased after 1995, most likely due to SF6 emission reductions in industrialised countries, but increased again after 1998. By subtracting those emissions reported by Annex I countries to the United Nations Framework Convention of Climatic Change (UNFCCC) from our observation-inferred SF6 source leaves a surprisingly large gap of more than 70–80% of non-reported SF6 emissions in the last decade.
wo different single particle mass spectrometers were operated in parallel at the Swiss High Alpine Research Station Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l.) during the Cloud and Aerosol Characterization Experiment (CLACE 6) in February and March 2007. During mixed phase cloud events ice crystals from 5 μm up to 20 μm were separated from large ice aggregates, non-activated, interstitial aerosol particles and supercooled droplets using an Ice-Counterflow Virtual Impactor (Ice-CVI). During one cloud period supercooled droplets were additionally sampled and analyzed by changing the Ice-CVI setup. The small ice particles and droplets were evaporated by injection into dry air inside the Ice-CVI. The resulting ice and droplet residues (IR and DR) were analyzed for size and composition by two single particle mass spectrometers: a custom-built Single Particle Laser-Ablation Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (SPLAT) and a commercial Aerosol Time of Flight Mass Spectrometer (ATOFMS, TSI Model 3800). During CLACE 6 the SPLAT instrument characterized 355 individual ice residues that produced a mass spectrum for at least one polarity and the ATOFMS measured 152 particles. The mass spectra were binned in classes, based on the combination of dominating substances, such as mineral dust, sulfate, potassium and elemental carbon or organic material. The derived chemical information from the ice residues is compared to the JFJ ambient aerosol that was sampled while the measurement station was out of clouds (several thousand particles analyzed by SPLAT and ATOFMS) and to the composition of the residues of supercooled cloud droplets (SPLAT: 162 cloud droplet residues analyzed, ATOFMS: 1094). The measurements showed that mineral dust particles were strongly enhanced in the ice particle residues. 57% of the SPLAT spectra from ice residues were dominated by signatures from mineral compounds, and 78% of the ATOFMS spectra. Sulfate and nitrate containing particles were strongly depleted in the ice residues. Sulfate was found to dominate the droplet residues (~90% of the particles). The results from the two different single particle mass spectrometers were generally in agreement. Differences in the results originate from several causes, such as the different wavelength of the desorption and ionisation lasers and different size-dependent particle detection efficiencies.
Samples of freshly fallen snow were collected at the high alpine research station Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) in February and March 2006 and 2007, during the Cloud and Aerosol Characterization Experiments (CLACE) 5 and 6. In this study a new technique has been developed and demonstrated for the measurement of organic acids in fresh snow. The melted snow samples were subjected to solid phase extraction and resulting solutions analysed for organic acids by HPLC-MS-TOF using negative electrospray ionization. A series of linear dicarboxylic acids from C5 to C13 and phthalic acid, were identified and quantified. In several samples the biogenic acid pinonic acid was also observed. In fresh snow the median concentration of the most abundant acid, adipic acid, was 0.69 micro g L -1 in 2006 and 0.70 micro g L -1 in 2007. Glutaric acid was the second most abundant dicarboxylic acid found with median values of 0.46 micro g L -1 in 2006 and 0.61 micro g L -1 in 2007, while the aromatic acid phthalic acid showed a median concentration of 0.34 micro g L -1 in 2006 and 0.45 micro g L -1 in 2007. The concentrations in the samples from various snowfall events varied significantly, and were found to be dependent on the back trajectory of the air mass arriving at Jungfraujoch. Air masses of marine origin showed the lowest concentrations of acids whereas the highest concentrations were measured when the air mass was strongly influenced by boundary layer air.
In this work we present the setup and first tests of our new BIO IN detector. This detector is designed to classify atmospheric ice nuclei (IN) for their biological content. Biological material is identified via its auto-fluorescence (intrinsic fluorescence) after irradiation with UV radiation. Ice nuclei are key substances for precipitation development via the Bergeron–Findeisen process. The level of scientific knowledge regarding origin and climatology (temporal and spatial distribution) of IN is very low. Some biological material is known to be active as IN even at relatively high temperatures of up to –2°C (e.g. pseudomonas syringae bacteria). These biological IN could have a strong influence on the formation of clouds and precipitation. We have designed the new BIO IN sensor to analyze the abundance of IN of biological origin. The instrument will be flown on one of the first missions of the new German research aircraft ''HALO'' (High Altitude and LOng Range).
A suite of diagnostics is applied to in-situ aircraft measurements and one Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) data to characterize the vertical structure of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). The diagnostics are based on vertical tracer profiles and relative vertical tracer gradients, using tropopause-referenced coordinates, and tracer-tracer relationships in the tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UT/LS).
Observations were obtained during four tropical campaigns performed from 1999 to 2006 with the research aircraft Geophysica and have been compared to the output of the ECHAM5/MESSy CCM. The model vertical resolution in the TTL (~500 m) allows for appropriate comparison with high-resolution aircraft observations and the diagnostics used highlight common TTL features between the model and the observational data.
The analysis of the vertical profiles of water vapour, ozone, and nitrous oxide, in both the observations and the model, shows that concentration mixing ratios exhibit a strong gradient change across the tropical tropopause, due to the role of this latter as a transport barrier and that transition between the tropospheric and stratospheric regimes occurs within a finite layer. The use of relative vertical ozone and carbon monoxide gradients, in addition to the vertical profiles, helps to highlight the region where this transition occurs and allows to give an estimate of its thickness. The analysis of the CO-O3 and H2O-O3 scatter plots and of the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the H2O-O3 pair completes this picture as it allows to better distinguish tropospheric and stratospheric regimes that can be identified by their different chemical composition.
The joint analysis and comparison of observed and modelled data allows to state that the model can represent the background TTL structure and its seasonal variability rather accurately. The model estimate of the thickness of the interface region between tropospheric and stratospheric regimes agrees well with average values inferred from observations. On the other hand, the measurements can be influenced by regional scale variability, local transport processes as well as deep convection, that can not be captured by the model.
A suite of diagnostics is applied to in-situ aircraft measurements and one Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) data to characterize the vertical structure of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). The diagnostics are based on the vertical tracers profiles, relative vertical tracers gradients, and tracer-tracer relationships in the tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UT/LS), using tropopause coordinates.
Observations come from the four tropical campaigns performed from 1998 to 2006 with the research aircraft Geophysica and have been directly compared to the output of the ECHAM5/MESSy CCM. The model vertical resolution in the TTL allows for appropriate comparison with high-resolution aircraft observations and the diagnostics used highlight common TTL features between the model and the observational data.
The analysis of the vertical profiles of water vapour, ozone, and nitrous oxide, in both the observations and the model, shows that concentration mixing ratios exhibit a strong gradient change across the tropical tropopause, due to the role of this latter as a transport barrier and that transition between the tropospheric and stratospheric regimes occurs within a finite layer. The use of relative vertical ozone gradients, in addition to the vertical profiles, helps to highlight the region where this transition occurs and allows to give an estimate of its thickness. The analysis of the CO-O3 and H2O-O3 scatter plots and of the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the H2O-O3 pair completes this picture as it allows to better distinguish tropospheric and stratospheric regimes that can be identified, first, by their differing chemical composition.
The joint analysis and comparison of observed and modelled data allows us to evaluate the capability of the model in reproducing the observed vertical structure of the TTL and its variability, and also to assess whether observations from particular regions on a monthly timescale can be representative of the fine scale mean structure of the Tropical Tropopause Layer.
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were analyzed in air and snow samples at the Jungfraujoch high alpine research station in Switzerland as part of CLACE 5 (CLoud and Aerosol Characterization Experiment) during February/March 2006. The fluxes of individual compounds in ambient air were calculated from gas phase concentrations and wind speed. The highest concentrations and flux values were observed for the aromatic hydrocarbons benzene (14.3 μg.m−2 s−1), 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene (5.27 μg.m−2 s−1), toluene (4.40 μg.m−2 −1), and the aliphatic hydrocarbons i-butane (7.87 μg.m−2 s−1), i-pentane (3.61 μg.m−2 s−1) and n-butane (3.23 μg.m−2 s−1). The measured concentrations and fluxes were used to calculate the efficiency of removal of VOCs by snow, which is defined as difference between the initial and final concentration/flux values of compounds before and after wet deposition. The removal efficiency was calculated at −24°C (−13.7°C) and ranged from 37% (35%) for o-xylene to 93% (63%) for i-pentane. The distribution coefficients of VOCs between the air and snow phases were derived from published poly-parameter linear free energy relationship (pp-LFER) data, and compared with distribution coefficients obtained from the simultaneous measurements of VOC concentrations in air and snow at Jungfraujoch. The coefficients calculated from pp-LFER exceeded those values measured in the present study, which indicates more efficient snow scavenging of the VOCs investigated than suggested by theoretical predictions.
Medium range hydrological forecasts in mesoscale catchments are only possible with the use of hydrological models driven by meteorological forecasts, which in particular contribute quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). QPFs are accompanied by large uncertainties, especially for longer lead times, which are propagated within the hydrometeorological model system. To deal with this limitation of predictability, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS that downscales the global ECMWF ensemble to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m.
Earlier studies have mostly addressed the potential benefits of hydrometeorological ensemble systems in short case studies. Here we present an analysis of hydrological ensemble hindcasts for two years (2005 and 2006). It is shown that the ensemble covers the uncertainty during different weather situations with appropriate spread. The ensemble also shows advantages over a corresponding deterministic forecast, even under consideration of an artificial spread.
Medium range hydrological forecasts in mesoscale catchments are only possible with the use of hydrological models driven by meteorological forecasts, which in particular contribute quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). QPFs are accompanied by large uncertainties, especially for longer lead times, which are propagated within the hydrometeorological model system. To deal with this limitation of predictability, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS that downscales the global ECMWF ensemble to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m.
Earlier studies have mostly addressed the potential benefits of hydrometeorological ensemble systems in short case studies. Here we present an analysis of hydrological ensemble hindcasts for two years (2005 and 2006). It is shown that the ensemble covers the uncertainty during different weather situations with an appropriate spread-skill relationship. The ensemble also shows advantages over a corresponding deterministic forecast, even under consideration of an artificial spread.
A characterization of the ultra-fine aerosol particle counter COPAS (COndensation PArticle counting System) for operation on board the Russian high altitude research aircraft M-55 Geophysika is presented. The COPAS instrument consists of an aerosol inlet and two dual-channel continuous flow Condensation Particle Counters (CPCs) operated with the chlorofluorocarbon FC-43. It operates at pressures between 400 and 50 hPa for aerosol detection in the particle diameter (dp) range from 6 nm up to 1 micro m. The aerosol inlet, designed for the M-55, is characterized with respect to aspiration, transmission, and transport losses. The experimental characterization of counting efficiencies of three CPCs yields dp50 (50% detection particle diameter) of 6 nm, 11 nm, and 15 nm at temperature differences (DeltaT) between saturator and condenser of 17°C, 30°C, and 33°C, respectively. Non-volatile particles are quantified with a fourth CPC, with dp50=11 nm. It includes an aerosol heating line (250°C) to evaporate H2SO4-H2O particles of 11 nm<dp<200 nm at pressures between 70 and 300 hPa. An instrumental in-flight inter-comparison of the different COPAS CPCs yields correlation coefficients of 0.996 and 0.985. The particle emission index for the M-55 in the range of 1.4–8.4×10 16 kg -1 fuel burned has been estimated based on measurements of the Geophysika's own exhaust.
We use observations of total particle number concentration at 36 worldwide sites and a global aerosol model to quantify the primary and secondary sources of particle number. We show that emissions of primary particles can reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of observed condensation nuclei (CN) (R2=0.51) but fail to explain the observed seasonal cycle at many sites (R2=0.1). The modeled CN concentration in the free troposphere is biased low (normalised mean bias, NMB=−88%) unless a secondary source of particles is included, for example from binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (NMB=−25%). Simulated CN concentrations in the continental boundary layer (BL) are also biased low (NMB=−74%) unless the number emission of anthropogenic primary particles is increased or an empirical BL particle formation mechanism based on sulfuric acid is used. We find that the seasonal CN cycle observed at continental BL sites is better simulated by including a BL particle formation mechanism (R2=0.3) than by increasing the number emission from primary anthropogenic sources (R2=0.18). Using sensitivity tests we derive optimum rate coefficients for this nucleation mechanism, which agree with values derived from detailed case studies at individual sites.
Active chlorine species play a dominant role in the catalytic destruction of stratospheric ozone in the polar vortices during the late winter and early spring seasons. Recently, the correct understanding of the ClO dimer cycle was challenged by the release of new laboratory absorption cross sections (Pope et al., 2007) yielding significant model underestimates of observed ClO and ozone loss (von Hobe et al., 2007). Under this aspect, Arctic stratospheric limb emission measurements carried out by the balloon version of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS-B) from Kiruna (Sweden) on 11 January 2001 and 20/21 March 2003 have been reanalyzed with regard to the chlorine reservoir species ClONO2 and the active species, ClO and ClOOCl (Cl2O2). New laboratory measurements of IR absorption cross sections of ClOOCl for various temperatures and pressures allowed for the first time the retrieval of ClOOCl mixing ratios from remote sensing measurements. High values of active chlorine (ClOx) of roughly 2.3 ppbv at 20 km were observed by MIPAS-B in the cold mid-winter Arctic vortex on 11 January 2001. While nighttime ClOOCl shows enhanced values of nearly 1.1 ppbv at 20 km, ClONO2 mixing ratios are less than 0.1 ppbv at this altitude. In contrast, high ClONO2 mixing ratios of nearly 2.4 ppbv at 20 km have been observed in the late winter Arctic vortex on 20 March 2003. No significant ClOx amounts are detectable on this date since most of the active chlorine has already recovered to its main reservoir species ClONO2. The observed values of ClOx and ClONO2 are in line with the established chlorine chemistry. The thermal equilibrium constants between the dimer formation and its dissociation, as derived from the balloon measurements, are on the lower side of reported data and in good agreement with values recommended by von Hobe et al. (2007). Calculations with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model (EMAC) using established kinetics show similar chlorine activation and deactivation, compared to the measurements in January 2001 and March 2003, respectively.
Fractional release factors of long-lived halogenated organic compounds in the tropical stratosphere
(2009)
Fractional release factors (FRFs) of organic trace gases are time-independent quantities that influence the calculation of Global Warming Potentials and Ozone Depletion Potentials. We present the first set of vertically resolved FRFs for 15 long-lived halo carbons in the tropical stratosphere up to 34 km altitude. They were calculated from measurements on air samples collected on board balloons and a high altitude aircraft. We compare the derived dependencies of FRFs on the mean stratospheric transit times (the so-called mean ages of air) with similarly derived FRFs originating from measurements at higher latitudes and find significant differences. Moreover a comparison with averaged FRFs currently used by the World Meteorological Organisation revealed the latter to be imprecise measures due to their observed vertical and latitudinal variability. The presented data set could thus be used to improve future ozone level and climate projections.
Trace elemental concentrations of bivalve shells content a wealthy of environmental and climatic information of the past, and therefore the studies of trace elemental distributions in bivalve shells gained increasing interest lately. However, after more than half century of research, most of the trace elemental variations are still not well understood and trace elemental proxies are far from being routinely applicable. This dissertation focuses on a better understanding of the trace elemental chemistry of Arctica islandica shells from Iceland, and paving the way for the application of the trace elemental proxies to reconstruct the environmental and climatic changes. Traits of trace elemental concentrations on A. islandica shells were explored and evaluated. Then based the geochemical traits of the shells, four non-environmental/climatic controlling is indentified. (1) Trace elemental concentrations of bivalve shells are effected by early diagenesis by the leach or exchange of elemental ions, especially in shell tip part, even with the protection of periostrucum; (2) The analytical methods also affect the results of trace elemental concentrations, especially for the element, such as Mg, which is highly enriched in organic matrices; (3) Shell organic matrices are found play a dominating role on the concentration of trace elements on A. islandica shells. Most trace elements only occurred in insoluble organic matrices (IOM), although others are only found in the carbonate fraction. IOM of A. islandica shells is significantly enriched in Mg, while Li and Na are more deplete in IOM, but enriched in shell carbonate. Ba is more or less even contented in IOM and shell carbonate. The concentrations of certain elements vary between primary layer and secondary layer; (4) The vital /physiological controlling on trace elemental distributions of bivalve shells is also confirmed. Six elemental (B, Na, Mg, Mn, Sr, and Ba) concentrations show significant correlation (exponential functions) with ontogenetic age and shell grow rates (logarithmic equations). It is worthy to remark that B, Mg, Sr and Ba concentrations are negatively correlated with shell growth rate, positive with ontogenetic age, while the concentrations of Na and Mn show the opposite trends. At last, all the controlling described above can be taken into account and corrected to extract the environmental and climatic signal by a kind of standardization. The derived six exponential functions of the high correlations between six trace elemental concentrations and ontogenetic year are applied to make the standardization of these element-Ca ratios. The gotten standardized indices are compared with the variations of environmental and climatic parameters in this region, and many correlations are found. Standardized indices of Sr/Ca ratios are strongly related to the sun spot number, autumn NAO, autumn Europe surface air temperature (SAT) and Arctic sea surface temperature anomaly (TA), and those of Mg/Ca ratios are strongly associated with Arctic TA, Europe SAT and Solar variation (irradiance). The variations of autumn Europe SAT demonstrated more similarity with standardized indices of B/Ca than other parameters. Except for the SAT index of Arctic, the standardized indices of Na/Ca showed no distinct relation to temperature. European precipitation and the Arctic sea level pressure index compared well the Na/Ca ratios of the shells, and so did the autumn NAO. Standardized indices of Mn/Ca were correlated with the number of hurricanes in the North Atlantic, Northern Europe SAT and sun spot number.
Global-scale information on natural river flows and anthropogenic river flow alterations is required to identify areas where aqueous ecosystems are expected to be strongly degraded. Such information can support the identification of environmental flow guidelines and a sustainable water management that balances the water demands of humans and ecosystems. This study presents the first global assessment of the anthropogenic alteration of river flow regimes, in particular of flow variability, by water withdrawals and dams/reservoirs. Six ecologically relevant flow indicators were quantified using an improved version of the global water model WaterGAP. WaterGAP simulated, with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree, river discharge as affected by human water withdrawals and dams around the year 2000, as well as naturalized discharge without this type of human interference. Compared to naturalized conditions, long-term average global discharge into oceans and internal sinks has decreased by 2.7% due to water withdrawals, and by 0.8% due to dams. Mainly due to irrigation, long-term average river discharge and statistical low flow Q90 (monthly river discharge that is exceeded in 9 out of 10 months) have decreased by more than 10% on one sixth and one quarter of the global land area (excluding Antarctica and Greenland), respectively. Q90 has increased significantly on only 5% of the land area, downstream of reservoirs. Due to both water withdrawals and reservoirs, seasonal flow amplitude has decreased significantly on one sixth of the land area, while interannual variability has increased on one quarter of the land area mainly due to irrigation. It has decreased on only 8% of the land area, in areas downstream of reservoirs where consumptive water use is low. The impact of reservoirs is likely underestimated by our study as small reservoirs are not taken into account. Areas most affected by anthropogenic river flow alterations are the Western and Central USA, Mexico, the western coast of South America, the Mediterranean rim, Southern Africa, the semi-arid and arid countries of the Near East and Western Asia, Pakistan and India, Northern China and the Australian Murray-Darling Basin, as well as some Arctic rivers. Due to a large number of uncertainties related e.g. to the estimation of water use and reservoir operation rules, the analysis is expected to provide only first estimates of river flow alterations that should be refined in the future.